Can we take a quick look at a current or recent race using Monty Hall?

If you like that one, try this one. — Dave Schwartz

I like that one, too! I'm glad Ray is here!

Welcome Ray, a great interview by Dave with Ray on Pace makes the Race. https://pacemakestherace.com/interview-dave-schwartz-interviews-ray-wallin/ — Ken Fee

Thanks, good interview. Very interesting.

Welcome, Ray!

As Ross Perot said, "I'm all ears."

BTW, with the scratch, can't have CHAOS in a 6-horse field. — Dave Schwartz

The running of the race said chaos. 4 horses battling on the front end, the 5th place horse blew by them like they were in slowmo. The 4th quarter went faster than the 3rd.

My approach to this race would be to bet CHAOS. — Dave Schwartz

It was chaos, but with a solid horse in place to take advantage.

Pratt with Brown at the meet before today: 6 starts, 3 wins, 1 place, 2 shows, +.77 ROI

My odds line: 6,2,3
#5 is a firster with an impressive work tab for Chad Brown.
Early, I look for 2,3,7,1 to compete for the front end.
I look for the race to be won up the stretch, but with my only elimination there being #1.
I wouldn't bet this race with your money, but...
i will pick #5 if he'll lay a little off the pace and wait for the horses to come back to him.
For a horizontal I would take 3,4,5.

Troubled trips...

So far (still early):
Routes: 4.95%
Sprints: 5.74%
Turf: 6.06%

Highest percentage for a jockey:
41.2% of 17 mounts.

I will be testing the zero/zero play. But being the 4th of 6 (there was 1 scratch) in Composite Speed cannot be good for a 1/4 favorite. — RanchWest

Three of the zero zero horses today. They finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. So far, they are 0/5.

The filly seemed to be bet heavily because she was taking a huge drop in class! Dropping from a $30,000 claiming race at BEL to $5,000 at FLX. — Mark

The beautiful part of parimutuel wagering is that when someone is really wrong, someone else can be really right.

But I do make a lot of final decisions based on pace scenario. When a horse doesn't run early and doesn't run late, I look elsewhere. But, again, I will research this zero/zero play. I have included it on my quick cap decision screen.

Respectfully, single race examples have only slightly better than zero value. — Dave Schwartz

I will be testing the zero/zero play. But being the 4th of 6 (there was 1 scratch) in Composite Speed cannot be good for a 1/4 favorite.

I saw another negative today. A horse with zero Quirin points and no recent closes went off as the favorite. If the horse doesn't run early and doesn't run late, how is it going to win? This was Bistrita, R5 at FL today, 5/23/22. Went off at 1/4 odds! And, I had her with the 5th best composite speed rating in a 7-horse field. Doesn't even seem possible, though it was the low odds on my automated odds line. — RanchWest

There were 2 horses in that race that had zero Quirin points and no recent closes and in the 6-horse field, neither of the two won. The winner paid $36.20 to win. Bistrita ran second with the $2 exacta paying $85.50. Incredible. A win bet on all 4 of the other horses had high enough odds to ensure a profit.

OMG!!!! — Dave Schwartz

You probably recall that I told about my friend, the paper handicapper, who referred to himself as a Big Chief Tablet handicapper. :lol:

Here's my word array:

aTroubleWords := {"steadied","Jostled","Bobbled","awkward","stumbled","bothered", ;
"hopped","hit","shuffled","Pinched","hesitated","checked","boxed","squeezed", ;
"lunged","ducked","lost footing","dwelt","Bumped hard","clipped","slammed", ;
"blocked","slipped","Took up","Jumped","Reared","Tangle","Threw head", ;
"Pinballed"}

I make an abbreviated set of PP's showing only the troubled trip lines. That way I can see how many troubled trips each horse has.

I saw another negative today. A horse with zero Quirin points and no recent closes went off as the favorite. If the horse doesn't run early and doesn't run late, how is it going to win? This was Bistrita, R5 at FL today, 5/23/22. Went off at 1/4 odds! And, I had her with the 5th best composite speed rating in a 7-horse field. Doesn't even seem possible, though it was the low odds on my automated odds line.

specifically looking at poor/bad or "negative" biases that I can see — Conley

Yeah, I am thinking that very few people look at the negatives. For biases, the only discussions I recall are against outside posts on the turf. Not even a lot of discussion of outside posts in routes, even when the runup to the first turn is short. Some of the dashes have short runups to the turn, too... I've seen some tracks where a 1-2-3 post tri box on dashes was winning disproportionately, suggesting that the outside posts sucked.

I also flag horses with troubled trips. I figure that a horse should also be forgiven for the occasional troubled trip, but when it keeps happening, maybe it isn't a coincidence.