Ranch, I agree that when a pace falls apart, the horses to look for are the ones running late.
Normal factors won't always get it. When I use Timeform, the first thing I look for is the
Pace Projector suggesting a hot, contested pace and then look for the best LP horses,
particularly ones that show apparently dull recent races, ie, not hot paces.
've caught a lot of very nice prices that way.

Bris has race shapes in their PPs, but I find them to be ridiculous in many races.

I do this it in FOXIT, a free PDF editor.
I'm not sure I even know where my pen is anymore! lol

And Dave's Organize Your Handicapping gives a very effective way to identify which ones with the line scores and Reynolds 2 and Reynolds 3 idea.

D'oh!
I was using pacemakestherace.STORE.com./
My Dog, I hope I'm not getting dyslexia!

Thanks.

So a ?

What is the address for the store?
I can't find a link anywhere.

I watched the first few cards and am impressed with the racing.
Frankly, I am pretty tired of Aqu, so the variety of conditions they card is interesting.
I am starting a SWIW spreadsheet and think I will give FG a good shot this winter.

Every horse is a D.

One thing I am seeing so far is a good way to just say a race is not worth the rest of the work and move on.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=75586&highlight=improve+decline

Ranch, here is the thread

The numbers ranks, ie like Sartin outlined in the Yellow Manual, To simplify:
EP SP AP
1 3 2 = 6
2 4 3 = 9
3 1 4 = 8
4 5 5 = 14
I'm playing around with Randy Giles' Optimum Pace Model and want to incorporate either class or Bris PP into a final number.

Rank 1 = 5
Rank 2 = 4
etc. to
Rank 5 =1

Say lowest would be 7 and highest would be 35.

I think you guys may have already given me the answer/

You betting overlays, not races, not a single event.
What happens in a single event, a race, means nothing in the long run.
There is no rewars for your win percentage other than bragging rights.
What matters is a simple eqation: Retun > Wagered.

Or, the jockey had his head surgically removed from his butt on Monday! :)

"inside info" is like pointing out that nothing won inside on turf for days, or controlling speed horse didn't break, that's why Old Paint wired the field, or Cox is 0 for 45 last 5 years with MSW to MC on turf at Toga.....

I can only get the winner I get 7 picks. :)
I saw nothing positive. ???

It is the "inside" information. Stuff like specific stats for today's race, things like comments from previous races, trouble, biases, etc. I don't care who the picks are.

Both.

I have decided to try an idea of using pace figures to do something similar.
I am using Dave's partimes, along with Beyer's variants I modify the race final time by Beyer's variant, then I recalculate the race times maintaining the energy relationship. Say the race went in 21 45 111 and the variant was fast 5 , the final time is adjusted to 112. 21 is .2958 of 111, so I use that multiplier on the revised 112, or 21.3.and the 45 becomes 45.6, so the race is now 21.3 45.6 112.
Next, I assign pace and speed ratings to the new times, in Quirin style, so the race might look like this:
115 106 103. The shape is very fast, average. This tells me the race was very fast for one call, but since it was average at the half, I can see the 2nd quarter went very slow (-9), so the race shape by quarters was F15 S9 Average so I can evaluate moves by where they occurr in the quarters.

Now this is all done in an excel sheet, by track, so I can almost automate the process. I just did all of Aqueduct sprints yesterday, from 2017, when the track was winterized to replace the inner dirt track through last weekend. A bonus to this is when I need to look at a race, I can see the whole day at a glance.

Using the race example above, 115 106 103, say the other sprints that day looked like this:

109 106 105
103 105 106
115 106 103 *** This race was the only really fast early, so I am confident it was genuine
101 101 99

But if it looked like this:
111 106 105 F6 A
105 105 106 S1 A
115 106 103 F12 A
108 105 99 F9 F6

The first calls went F27 / S1, or F26 over 4 races, so I would now revise the pace figures by lowering
all four by 6 points (26/4)

105 106 105
99 105 106
109 106 103 *** significant change in how this race was run
102 105 99

By automating the process, I can do more tracks, and only really handicap actual pace variants when I need to use a race.

I think Jack should be refered to from now on as.....FLIGHTLINE! LOL