Pace pressure nuances
I have decided to try an idea of using pace figures to do something similar.
I am using Dave's partimes, along with Beyer's variants I modify the race final time by Beyer's variant, then I recalculate the race times maintaining the energy relationship. Say the race went in 21 45 111 and the variant was fast 5 , the final time is adjusted to 112. 21 is .2958 of 111, so I use that multiplier on the revised 112, or 21.3.and the 45 becomes 45.6, so the race is now 21.3 45.6 112.
Next, I assign pace and speed ratings to the new times, in Quirin style, so the race might look like this:
115 106 103. The shape is very fast, average. This tells me the race was very fast for one call, but since it was average at the half, I can see the 2nd quarter went very slow (-9), so the race shape by quarters was F15 S9 Average so I can evaluate moves by where they occurr in the quarters.
Now this is all done in an excel sheet, by track, so I can almost automate the process. I just did all of Aqueduct sprints yesterday, from 2017, when the track was winterized to replace the inner dirt track through last weekend. A bonus to this is when I need to look at a race, I can see the whole day at a glance.
Using the race example above, 115 106 103, say the other sprints that day looked like this:
109 106 105
103 105 106
115 106 103 *** This race was the only really fast early, so I am confident it was genuine
101 101 99
But if it looked like this:
111 106 105 F6 A
105 105 106 S1 A
115 106 103 F12 A
108 105 99 F9 F6
The first calls went F27 / S1, or F26 over 4 races, so I would now revise the pace figures by lowering
all four by 6 points (26/4)
105 106 105
99 105 106
109 106 103 *** significant change in how this race was run
102 105 99
By automating the process, I can do more tracks, and only really handicap actual pace variants when I need to use a race.