Comments

  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Fenwick almost got into the trifecta....in the 14th race! LOL
    I heard he was far back. How far back was he?
    He was so far back the AMBULENCE stalled.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Simplification
    Epicenter
    Early Voting
  • Black-Eyed Susan Selections 2022


    That's that 1st law of horse racing....
  • Black-Eyed Susan Selections 2022
    My Ultimate Odds Line

    ADARE MANOR 1.7
    LUNA BELLE 5.7
    DISTINCTLYPOSSIBLE 8.1
    MAKING MATCHA 10.1
    INTERSTATEDAYDREAM 15.6

    My pick is Making Matcha
  • What's Your Favorite Dave Schwartz Product?
    My favorite Dave products, his pars and Figuring Out What Wins.
    Been using his pars since Tom Brohamer recommended them at a Sartin seminar in Baltimore.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Speaking of "Sheets," this is one of the PP formats CJ used to offer with his program, before TFUS.
    It shows the pace and speed figs for pace of race alongside pace of horse, and plots the performance figure, color coded for surface.
    Attachment
    cjpp (91K)
  • Racing in the old days
    I remember the old betting windows specifically assigned an amount and placing. If I wanted to bet WPS, I had to go to three different windows, unless the WPS window was open, usually only one weekends.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Did the Fotius program evolve into Predictform at Brisnet?
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    The PP Generator can merge the works, sample below. I really hate the way they interupt the running lines with the claimed from comments. Grrrrrrrr!

    Back before TFUS, CJ sold his figures to a group and one of the great things was he had a way to replace some data in the $1 files with his pace and speed figs so we could have the PPs with his numbers.
    Attachment
    Vagrancy 2022 (123K)
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    I'm too set in my ways to stray too far from the basic format. I've been using them since Dr Fager.
    What I do like is the options and filters Bris Custom Generator offers. Similar to the method Michael Pizzola outlined in Handicapping Magic I use the filter to see only the races within 1 furlong of today's distance and on the same surface, set to show only races where the horse was w/in 2 lengths at the first two calls, evaluate the early pace scenario from there. I make a composite EP and SR, similar to a Qurinn pace/speed figure.

    The next step I do is remove the early pace filter and view all the appropriate lines and see what closers can overcome the projected pace.

    Tomorrow's 2nd at Belmont is attached in two files, the first pass and the second pass, for examples.
    I found a dominant pace horse, the #1, who's 105/84 should put away all the other front runners with the exception of the $6, who cuts back off a very fast route pace. In the second pass, the #2 comes into the picture as a closer who has already won against the projected pace.
    Attachments
    bel r2 0514 1st pass filtered (155K)
    bel 051422 2nd pass all positions (161K)
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    It was just for Aqu, based on ongoing records, but it has stood up nicely at other tracks. I am going to re-evaluate for Bel as I get more data. I am just starting to handicap Bel this week.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    So if we have 3 lines to sort/weigh, might using a Fibonocci be useful?
    Good thread!
  • What about jockeys?
    I think it would even better if broken down by surface/distance as well.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    (Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.)Dave Schwartz

    If that were true, I would be A rich man.
    Would you contact NYRA and explain that to them?

    TY
  • What about jockeys?
    It's in the Bris Ultimate PPs.
    As Richie Migliore says about early speed as a weapon,"They have to go where I've already been."
    Attachment
    jockey stat (55K)
  • What about jockeys?
    At NYRA tracks, jockey is a big part of my pace evaluation.
    Too many riders refuse to use a horse's speed and some of them are big names,
    When evaluating early horses, I have to take that into account.

    A stat I look at is the riders's record by running style.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    What I do is first look for overlays in the top 3 or 4. If I find a decent one, say my 7-2 line 3rd horse is 8-1, I'm really interested. If noting jumps out, I look at the lowest line horse and disparage it. Why can't it win, what's negative in its record, why can't it win? Often, the lowest line horse is just "terrible" on paper, all of its good numbers coming from a turf marathon on yielding grass a year ago in a stakes race and today it's in a 5.5F claimer on dirt. I may mentally add a half point for each major negative I find, say taking the horse from 9-5 to 3-1. Or just say "no thanks" and move on.
    Since only the last line is used, I also double check to see if a potentially top rated horse got left out due to a bad last race that is really excusable.

    If I have a 8-5 top horse, and the next horses are bunched, say 4-1, 9-2, 5-1....I might consider a part wheel over them, or, if the top horse is suspect, I might bet 2-3 others to win or W/P. The handicapping begins once the line is ready. Funny, it is much like the process Beyer outlined in his chapter "Putting it All Together" in his book Picking Winners," and just yesterday dnglfnk at PA talked about HE uses that very chapter in his process.
  • Jockey is part-time outrider!
    Tried to attach the mp4 but it didn't work.
    Try this link to download the video:

    https://app.box.com/s/v5t13a01tjgwjyaaaygwazxz4clwvrw7
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    The composite and synthetic pace ideas make think your RegSpeedSort method might work well to elimiate the abberant pace figs and allow a deeper comparisob between early and other than early horses.