Comments

  • Chalk
    And Dave's Organize Your Handicapping gives a very effective way to identify which ones with the line scores and Reynolds 2 and Reynolds 3 idea.
  • Have you ever?
    D'oh!
    I was using pacemakestherace.STORE.com./
    My Dog, I hope I'm not getting dyslexia!

    Thanks.
  • Have you ever?
    So a ?

    What is the address for the store?
    I can't find a link anywhere.
  • Improve and Decline Rediscovered
    I watched the first few cards and am impressed with the racing.
    Frankly, I am pretty tired of Aqu, so the variety of conditions they card is interesting.
    I am starting a SWIW spreadsheet and think I will give FG a good shot this winter.
  • Improve and Decline Rediscovered
    Every horse is a D.
  • Improve and Decline Rediscovered
    One thing I am seeing so far is a good way to just say a race is not worth the rest of the work and move on.
  • Making an oddsline
    The numbers ranks, ie like Sartin outlined in the Yellow Manual, To simplify:
    EP SP AP
    1 3 2 = 6
    2 4 3 = 9
    3 1 4 = 8
    4 5 5 = 14
    I'm playing around with Randy Giles' Optimum Pace Model and want to incorporate either class or Bris PP into a final number.
  • Making an oddsline
    Rank 1 = 5
    Rank 2 = 4
    etc. to
    Rank 5 =1
  • Making an oddsline
    Say lowest would be 7 and highest would be 35.

    I think you guys may have already given me the answer/
  • Fair win odds theory
    You betting overlays, not races, not a single event.
    What happens in a single event, a race, means nothing in the long run.
    There is no rewars for your win percentage other than bragging rights.
    What matters is a simple eqation: Retun > Wagered.
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    Or, the jockey had his head surgically removed from his butt on Monday! :)
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    "inside info" is like pointing out that nothing won inside on turf for days, or controlling speed horse didn't break, that's why Old Paint wired the field, or Cox is 0 for 45 last 5 years with MSW to MC on turf at Toga.....
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    I can only get the winner I get 7 picks. :)
    I saw nothing positive. ???
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    It is the "inside" information. Stuff like specific stats for today's race, things like comments from previous races, trouble, biases, etc. I don't care who the picks are.
  • Pace pressure nuances
    I have decided to try an idea of using pace figures to do something similar.
    I am using Dave's partimes, along with Beyer's variants I modify the race final time by Beyer's variant, then I recalculate the race times maintaining the energy relationship. Say the race went in 21 45 111 and the variant was fast 5 , the final time is adjusted to 112. 21 is .2958 of 111, so I use that multiplier on the revised 112, or 21.3.and the 45 becomes 45.6, so the race is now 21.3 45.6 112.
    Next, I assign pace and speed ratings to the new times, in Quirin style, so the race might look like this:
    115 106 103. The shape is very fast, average. This tells me the race was very fast for one call, but since it was average at the half, I can see the 2nd quarter went very slow (-9), so the race shape by quarters was F15 S9 Average so I can evaluate moves by where they occurr in the quarters.

    Now this is all done in an excel sheet, by track, so I can almost automate the process. I just did all of Aqueduct sprints yesterday, from 2017, when the track was winterized to replace the inner dirt track through last weekend. A bonus to this is when I need to look at a race, I can see the whole day at a glance.

    Using the race example above, 115 106 103, say the other sprints that day looked like this:

    109 106 105
    103 105 106
    115 106 103 *** This race was the only really fast early, so I am confident it was genuine
    101 101 99

    But if it looked like this:
    111 106 105 F6 A
    105 105 106 S1 A
    115 106 103 F12 A
    108 105 99 F9 F6

    The first calls went F27 / S1, or F26 over 4 races, so I would now revise the pace figures by lowering
    all four by 6 points (26/4)

    105 106 105
    99 105 106
    109 106 103 *** significant change in how this race was run
    102 105 99

    By automating the process, I can do more tracks, and only really handicap actual pace variants when I need to use a race.
  • 2022 Contest Saratoga Final Week (week 8) ( Aug. 30 - Sept 5) Includes Monday racing
    I think Jack should be refered to from now on as.....FLIGHTLINE! LOL
  • 2022 Contest Saratoga Final Week (week 8) ( Aug. 30 - Sept 5) Includes Monday racing
    Ranch,
    Thanks for all your hard work running things for a looooooong time!
    Congrats to the top 3.

    btw, has JACK ever written a book on handicapping?
  • 2022 Contest Saratoga Final Week (week 8) ( Aug. 30 - Sept 5) Includes Monday racing
    Somebody email me a bullet.
    I picked Forte in the Hopefull, but copied 1, not 2, from my list.
    Worse than that, I also bet the 1, not the 2!
    Arrrrrrrgggggh!