60 race test from yesterday afternoon Saturday 24MAY2025. No maiden races or races with 4 or fewer horses.
d's: <=1.21. 17 winners
L's: <=1.99. 2 winners (d & L's - 31.6%)
m's: >=2.00 and NOT Natural Odds. 26 winners
H's: = Natural Odds. 15 winners (m & H's - 68.3%)

The d's and L's had a much lower hit rate. Guessing because it's Saturday with larger and more competitive fields. The m's or middle AI Line horses did very well. However, with larger fields, there's more m's contenders.

100 race test.
d's, L's, m's, H's. 100 races from last Sunday and Wednesday. No maiden races or races with 4 or fewer horses.
d's: <=1.21. 38 winners
L's: <=1.99. 6 winners
m's: >=2.00 and NOT Natural Odds. 29 winners
H's: = Natural Odds. 27 winners

Not that many L's since most of the low odds horses qualify as d's and it's a narrow window. So the pool size for L's is low as expected.
But, as you can see, 44% winners with an AI Line of <=1.99.
56% winners with an AI Line of >=2.00, but there's a lot of horses in these pools.

BALO's: AI Assist set to Value Method: 0 and Hit Rate Importance: 100.
The d and/or L horses with NO Rank 1's. Found 5 of these. The d and/or L horses with ONLY one (1) Rank 1. Found 3 of these. None of these 8 horses won. Have seen a few more of these since testing and none of them won. Also, in short 5-6 horse fields, as expected, these d's and L's finish 2nd quite often.

Hit Rate Importance: 65. Then set AI Assist set to Value Method: 1 (value) and 2 (hit rate). If a horse is Rank 1 Consensus for both, it's worth a longer look. Not a high hit rate so need to include other factors with it.

How about Win%? The horse's Win% compared to the other contenders. The same with Place/Show%. Horses that consistently finish in the top three show that they are reliable and competitive-- have heart. Average Earnings per Start. Horses with high earnings per start-- again show that they have heart and like to compete.

I can't wait to see it and try it out!!

Number Seven, Precision Shooting is interesting. Yeah, it’s controversial, but the best players can influence the dice.
Years ago I practiced. Stacked the dice one on top of another-- the number two's (with the casino logo) facing up. Then a gentle throw to the rail just letting one or both touch the wall. Thought I was okay, or maybe not. In Vegas about 40 years ago a big player tipped me $50 since I was rolling pretty good. So I thought I was doing okay.
Casinos then opened locally around Illinois. I rolled one night for about 30 straight minutes. The pit boss took notice and told me I couldn't stack and hold the dice that way-- crapped out like 2 rolls later. A few more return trips to the same casino and a different one-- the same thing. Said I was "chipping" the dice. I only play craps for fun now-- 1-2 times per year when I go to pickup grandma.

Derby winners are 0 - 14 after the Derby-- past 3 years. Have to go back to Mandaloun to find a Derby horse that won races after the Derby. Only two (2) horses have won the derby with 8 or more career starts since 2000. Mind That Bird (8) and California Chrome (10). Several theories are out there. My opinion is breeding and the effects of medication. Horses need to be lightly raced to attempt the 1 1/4 mile Derby or think about the Triple Crown.

Chaos 5 to the 5th. You can make a case for just about every horse. Each owner/trainer believes "if their horse takes a step forward", "if things go their way"-- then their horse will win. The last three (3) Derby winners are 0 - 14 after the Derby.
Find a horse that has a few positives and that's your pick.

I'll be checking out contenders from the Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas Derby's. Also, watch Dave's "My Playing Strategy Plus Kentucky Derby, 2022" video. Search in the Forum and you'll find the video from a few years ago. If you don't like the favorites, this video will help you find the longshots.

I didn't much time yesterday. Will look at it a little more closely over the next few days. Here's a couple I noticed from yesterday.
05APR2025 AQU R12 (Wood Memorial). #1 Rodriguez. PED E. Click thru the Pace-- E 3 until the finish-- Mag 1's. Speed on the Rail and good cEP and cFT-- paid $9.30.
05APR2025 SAX R12. #2 Lammas. 10-1 ML. AI BH 1 1. RED E. Passes most of the Pace E's, EP's and LP's-- and all of the E, EP and LP psr and cls. Went off at 6-1, below the ML and AI (Neal)-- paid $14.40.

Flip-side. 25 Dirt races at MVR, PRX, GPX and TAM (no MSW, MdClm or 4-horse races). RED Running Styles EP, LP and SR. Only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
16 Turf races at GPX and TAM (EP, LP and SR)-- no 8 or 7 ES point winners.
15 Tapeta races at GPX (EP, LP and SR)-- only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
Sample size is small. But it does appear that ES 8 and 7 front runners struggle when the RED Running Style is not E.

Here's a good BALO check (unfortunately it doesn't happen all that often). NOTE: I've been testing all races except MSW, MdClm and 4-horse races.
Dirt races with the Red Running Style E or EP on the My Hcp screen. Horses with Running Style (RS - 402) 4 and 5 with Early Speed points (ES - 202) 0 or 1 Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
Turf races with the RED E (NOTE: I tested GPX and TAM). Horses with 0 or 1 Early Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
GPX Tapeta races with the RED E. Have tested the last 28 Tapeta races with the RED E-- have not come across a horse with 0 or 1 Early Speed points that won.
It takes a pretty good horse with 0 or 1 ES points to close and win a Running Style E race.

Both horses were "high odds" horses. But, both races were "Chaos 5" races. If you decided to swing for the fences, and dutch 6 horses at FG and 5 horses at AQU-- you would have received a nice return.

I can only guess that they ran for "horse grain and/or supplements". Instead of purse money-- a month or two supply of "feed".

I would prefer to leverage the PSR work that I've already completed (and still in progress). Everyone is welcome to it.

Summary: 200+ races (no maiden races). I used GPX, TAM and PRX. PSR Rank 1 contenders win ~31%, Rank 2 ~20% and Rank 3 ~18%. PSR Ranks 1, 2, 3 ~ 70%. Ranks 4 and higher ~30%. Chaos 5 races, Ranks 4 or higher win at a higher percentage.

Keep in mind that the above are averages and results go in spurts (as Dave says above). Streaks where a Rank 1, 2 or 3 contender wins 12 out of 14 races; or a Rank 4 or higher wins 6 out of 10.

All of this circles back to Dave's takeaways above-- Hit Rate and Value. I know that PSR Ranks 1, 2 and 3 contenders achieve hit rate. So what I'm working on now is a BALO process to eliminate contenders with AI Lines <2-1 (1.99-1 or less). Brian just gave me and idea on how to help the process that I think will work.

Then something like this. Chaos 0, 1, 2 and 3 races-- focus on hit rate. Determine if a low odds AI line contender can be eliminated and play the other PSR contenders. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- focus on value. Look to include PSR Ranks 4 and higher contenders. PSR Rank 3 contenders pay about ~$11.60; so you simply cannot dismiss all of the low rank PSR contenders. Need a mix.

My opinion, something like this. PSR Rank 1, 2 and 3 contenders in Chaos 1 - 3 races-- Low Risk. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- Medium Risk.
PSR Ranks 4 and higher in Chaos 1 - 3 races-- High Risk. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- Medium Risk.

If I have time this week, I would like to calculate a risk score. Have a lot going on plus a full day of auto/air travel. I may be able to complete a small sample just to see what it looks like.

But, I'm not sure how to calculate the risk score or what this would look like in Excel (the values in the calculation)? I usually end up with 2, 3 or 4 contenders. Would the risk score be based on all of the contenders or just the final 1 or 2 I come up with?

Play along Day 1, the 6 mandatory races (after scratches).
OPX R2 - #7
TAM R5 - #8
AQU R6 - #3
GPX R9 - #8
SAX R5 - #4
TPX R3 - #5

Play along Day 1, the 6 mandatory races.
OPX R2 - #7
TAM R5 - #12
AQU R6 - #5
GPX R9 - #8
SAX R5 - #4
TPX R3 - #5

There's also 10 optional races. My strategy would be to filter through all of the eligible tracks for Chaos 5 races looking for price horses. It's tough, not an easy task.

Wow, quite the story.

Why or what would cause H3 to produce inferior numbers to HSH2 (or did it) with some of the factors? Curious what kind of wagers Rook made-- win, horizontal, etc.? 2006, not sure if the Whales were around then?

Duffy (PickMaster) was going to test the BALO's using over ten years of data in his HSH database (the Model folder). We're hoping to further identify losing BALO's.

Ping:
@PickMaster