Strange low % of favorites winning My hunch is that the whales throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, and run a logistic regression model. Their aim is to have (my guess) a 0-2% ROI. But with a 10% rebate, their true ROI is 10-12%. That may not sound like much (my models are way better, but I can't wager 200k per race), but if they play something like 80 races per day at 200k per race, that's a return of $160k PER DAY.