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  • ELO Based System
    What is an ELO system??

    That's a new one to me.:smile:
  • Is there a Factor for "HEART"
    Bruno has a followup.
    Heart connotes greatness. So, how is it defined and how to we
    treat those who show it?

    Writer: Bruno@Racingwithbruno
    Bruno@Racingwithbruno
    3 days ago
    4 min read


    "Ah… Hans Gruber. A name forever etched into cinematic infamy. The mastermind behind the Nakatomi Plaza attack—Christmas, 1988. A man of culture, intellect, precision. And like all great villains, cloaked his greed in the illusion of purpose. “Political demands,” he said. Ideology. Justice. When in truth, it was a heist. A masterstroke of manipulation, executed beneath the banner of misdirection.

    But of course, he would have gotten away with it, were it not for the uninvited guest—the barefoot cowboy with a badge, John McClane. Off-duty. Outgunned. Outnumbered. But not outmatched. One man, armed with grit and good instincts, peeled back the layers of that façade and exposed what it truly was: not rebellion, but theft. Not cause, but cover.

    Now, forgive the detour down memory lane, but it brings me, rather conveniently, to the Preakness Stakes.

    You see, we’ve witnessed a similar brand of theater. A carefully crafted act—this time, not with explosives and hostages, but with hypocrisy. The race runs, the winner is crowned, and suddenly the air is thick with outrage, confusion, self-righteous calls for reform. Not because the sport needs it—but because the narrative does. And just like Gruber, they wrap their heist in noble packaging.

    “Think of the horses,” they say. “This is about fairness,” they insist. No. It’s about control. It’s about influence. It’s about rewriting the rules after the fact because the outcome didn't suit the agenda. A heist, plain and simple—only this one’s not about bearer bonds. It’s about the integrity of competition.

    They talk of spacing the Triple Crown, of protecting the breed, of evolving the sport—but what they really want is to reshape it in their image. They want the pageantry without the pressure, the spectacle without the stakes.

    Well… I’m sorry, but greatness doesn't stretch to accommodate mediocrity. And real competitors don’t ask for the rules to change after they lose.

    So, yes—Hans Gruber and the post-Preakness pundits share something in common: both engineered a lie disguised as righteousness. Both underestimated the ones who could see through it.

    And both—if there’s any justice left—will be met not with applause, but with a slow clap and a locked vault.

    Because what we witnessed at Pimlico wasn’t just a horse race—it was a cinematic climax, a third-act twist, an explosion of grit and guts wrapped in the silks of Journalism, a colt whose name now echoes like gunfire in the stairwells of racing history.

    No one was thrown from a 30th-floor window. No machine guns emerged from the smoke and rubble. But make no mistake—there were fireworks. And the post-race fallout? Oh, it's been louder than a detonator on Christmas Eve.

    Fines. Suspensions. Social media hysteria. The usual suspects. People calling for Flavien Prat’s head on a pike, blaming Rispoli for everything from the contact to the curvature of the rail. “He should’ve never been inside!” they cry, from the safety of their WiFi-enabled rocking chairs, as if Umberto was playing hopscotch instead of navigating a three-horse meat grinder at 40 miles per hour.

    These critics—these self-appointed stewards of truth—are the Dwayne T. Robinsons of racing. Loud. Wrong. Unflinchingly confident in their complete misunderstanding of the moment. Deputy Chief of Dumb Opinions, if you will. They don't know dipshit from apple butter, but by God, they're going to tell you all about it… emphatically, in all caps, with gifs.

    But here's the inconvenient truth no one wants to admit:

    Rispoli was exactly where he needed to be.

    Trapped on the rail, with Flavien Prat literally in his lap—boxed in, locked down. He had two choices: get out or go down. That’s it. No third option. No magic portal opening in the stretch. And so he moved. To save the race. To save the horse. And yes, maybe to save himself from a national catastrophe on live television.

    Swinging wide? That would’ve been waving the white flag. He doesn't win from the parking lot. Journalism—a beast with fire in his eyes and something to say. And say it he did.

    Shoulder to shoulder with Goal Oriented, Journalism shoved his way out like a champion, as if to growl, “Get off me,” though I'm sure the language in his head was a touch more… colorful. That wasn't reckless. That wasn’t luck. That was a horse refusing to lose.

    And what did it take? Heart. Guts. And the kind of bond between horse and rider that can’t be taught in a classroom or a comment thread and especially from a lounge chair in your living room.

    Let’s also not pretend this win was some fluke. Did you know that Irad Ortiz Jr., as celebrated and supremely talented as he is, has never won the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness? His two Triple Crown wins came in the Belmont Stakes alone. His brother Jose? A Preakness win with Early Voting, a Belmont as well—but both brothers? Still blanked at Churchill Downs.

    And now? Umberto Rispoli—unheralded, underappreciated—has done what Irad hasn't: won one of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

    But instead of celebrating that—instead of elevating the moment—we're nitpicking, second-guessing, and dissecting with the surgical precision of a barroom surgeon.

    Why? Because that’s what we do to greatness in this sport. We demand it. And then, the moment it arrives? We try to tear it down.

    But here's what you need to remember:

    Journalism exposed both sides of the story.

    The critics. The doubters. The glory. The grit. At the final running of the Preakness at old Pimlico—a place dripping in legacy—we witnessed a champion refuse to fold. He overcame. He conquered. And whether you're a believer or a cynic, you're going to remember his name.

    Because this—this was not just a race. It was Die Hard on dirt.

    And Journalism? Ah… yes. Journalism was John McClane—barefoot, bloodied, and bellowing “Yippee-ki-yay, mo-f@@r."


    Why do we do it?? Is it human nature? Jealousy? Not sure!!
  • Ky Derby winners last race
    From Twitter:
    How do we overcome this???


    Mayhemily
    @EmilyOptixEQ
    21m
    the number of horses (16) in this #kyderby field (21) with gate issues in one of their past 3 runlines is unique and compared to previous years, which is extremely high.
  • What is a "Feed Bag Race"??
    Really?

    Are we that close to having horse racing go away that that is
    the best we can do on a purse??
  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    It CAN get cold in Las Vegas. Snow on the mountains
    this morning!!
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  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    Prepping Dave "The Ram" for his big day!!

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  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    When it's all favorites or horses you wouldn't bet
    with someone else's money:

    The best $1.50 lunch in Laas Vegas:

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    A "free" beer in the racebook and a premium hot dog
    with onions, relish and sauerkraut!!

    Wish you were here!!
  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    Bottom Line =

    DO NOT depend on sitting there and doing
    races as they come up. They come too fast
    and too hard!!

    Know which races you are going to bet
    AND how many horses in each depending
    on Field Size and Chaos Level and FTS
    and number of Lightly Raced horses. You
    must have these mapped out in advance.

    The main TV screen changes from your race
    immediately after the race is finished. You will
    have a difficult time getting final odds if you won
    if you don't use the tote function in Determinator
    or write down the odds on your horses during the
    running of the race.

    Today was an education!! Lots of winners were
    predicted by Determinator and I would have been
    EXTREMELY profitable instead of just profitable
    if I followed my betting rules.

    I was the problem!!!
  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    No for me on tomorrow.

    The Ram is. He has 3 entries in the Last Chance
    Tournament that is tomorrow. He's trying to win
    another entry to go with the 1 he already has for
    the BIG ONE.

    Heading down to see him later in the afternoon.
    He'll be at Bally's fighting the good fight for us!!
  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    Organize - Execute!!

    So much different than sitting at home with 2 monitors
    and a huge desk.
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  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    The battlefield!! ONWARD!!
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  • It's Vegas, baby!!
    Charged and ready to go!!
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  • Making lots of new discoveries!
    Can't wait!!

    How soon??
  • Luan Machado eases before the line
    As of today, February 28, 2025, the most recent New York Times article related to horse racing is an opinion piece titled "Dead Athletes. Empty Stands. Billions to Keep Horse Racing Alive," written by Noah Shachtman and published this morning at 3:00 AM MST. The article critiques the horse racing industry, focusing on its reliance on substantial public subsidies while facing declining popularity and ongoing issues with animal welfare. It highlights the scene at Yonkers Raceway in New York, where, despite a sparse crowd, the industry benefits from significant financial support—around $60 million from an adjacent casino’s revenue in the last fiscal year alone, part of billions funneled into the sport annually. Shachtman argues that this arrangement props up a sport that kills its athletes (the horses) and often exploits workers, questioning why taxpayers fund an industry that struggles to stand on its own amid empty stands and ethical controversies.
    This piece reflects a broader narrative in recent New York Times coverage of horse racing, which has often spotlighted the sport’s challenges, including horse fatalities, doping scandals, and debates over its sustainability. For a deeper dive, the Times has also produced related content like the 2024 documentary "Broken Horses," which aired on FX and Hulu, exploring a spate of horse deaths at major tracks like Churchill Downs and Saratoga. If you’re looking for a specific angle—say, race results,

    From the New York Times:Dead Athletes. Empty Stands. Why Are We Paying Billions to Keep This Sport Alive?
    {Horse racing}
    New York Times ^ | Feb. 28, 2025 | Noah Shachtman
    Posted on 2/28/2025, 8:31:05 AM by Cronos

    ..Back in the day, when horse racing was the only legal form of gambling in New York State, 20,000 or more people would jam the stands at Yonkers Raceway, cheering wildly as the horses ran their mile-long course. But on this day, despite the beautiful July weather, just a few dozen spectators hang around, slumped into faded orange seats along a chain-link fence. Even with online betting, the racetrack takes in less than one-fortieth of what it would have at the sport’s peak. So the horses take their two laps, head back down the runway and exit the track to something near silence. ...

    Back in 2001, when New York State agreed to hand out new licenses to operate slot machines, the racing crowd won an agreement that a chunk of the proceeds would go to them.

    At the Yonkers track, the adjacent casino was doing enough business to generate around $600 million during the last fiscal year. About sixty million of it went to pay out those purses, fund the local breeders and dole out a few million for Faraldo’s group. Multiply that by every year and every racetrack, and it’s billions and billions of dollars.

    .. Maryland uses as much as $91 million a year in slot machine revenue to prop up its horse racing industry. The state last year agreed to acquire the decrepit Pimlico track and invest up to an additional $400 million to upgrade it. Pennsylvania has sunk over $3.5 billion over the past two decades into its racehorse development fund. Even Kentucky, the storied home of American horse racing, relies on a similar machine. Without them, “we would have a few days of racing at Churchill Downs,”
  • Luan Machado eases before the line
    Wow!! I got a "like" to my post in less than 1 minute. Everyone
    else is just milk toast in their responses. Oh, it was an honest
    mistake. Just don't ride him.

    Sorry, not acceptable. Integrity for the bettor is EVERYTHING.
    This is huge money for all of us. This is the future of our industry.
    This is why the New York Times just ran the article on why
    horse racing needs to go away!!

    Hong Kong accountability needs to come to US horseracing
    immediately!!

    Prove me wrong!!
  • Luan Machado eases before the line
    My response:

    Pony_ Player @PonyPlayer05

    Suspend him for life. He cost Exact bettors, Trifecta, Super, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 bettors a shitpot full of money. A class action suit from bettors should also be on the table to dissuade the other jockeys that may do this in the future!!

    3:24 PM · Feb 28, 2025
  • New Update Friday 02/28 WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Good enough. Send it.

    Only you, me and Jimmy Pommier are doing the research.

    Only you and I will use these columns short term. Jimmy P
    will still use Excel.

    The AI objects are all that they will use right now.
  • Report update AP+PS+LR
    It's not AI.

    It is done using factors from HSH and mathematical jujutsu.
  • Report update AP+PS+LR
    65 more races =

    Races with at least 1 rank 1: 44 68%
    (There can/will be multiple horses per race that have
    at 1 rank 1 in their factors.)
    Races with no rank 1's and at least 1 rank 2: 14 22%
    Races with NO rank 1's or 2's: 7 11%

    If a horse has no rank 1's or 2's, there is a 89% chance
    that they will lose.

    Horses may rank low, but still have a single 1 e.g.
    1-7 and rank 5+ and still be able to win. Do not
    overlook these horses.
  • Report update AP+PS+LR
    65 more races =

    88: 2-3-4

    rank 1-3 = 36 82%
    rank 4 = 4 9%
    rank 5+ = 3 7%

    88:5+
    rank 1-3 = 10 48%
    rank 4 = 0
    rank 5+ = 11 52%

    Swing for the fences ONLY when races are 88:5+??
    Or in races 88:2-3-4 where a top 4 horse has a rank 1 or 2
    and is high odds.