If I may, I'll add a pick for R6

9 5 2 12 — RanchWest

finish 11-6-1-12

I should have recognized that this one would fall apart. On that basis, the 1, 6 and 12 figure for me, but I don't think I could have gotten the 11. 11 did have a hot jockey/trainer combo. The 1 came from last.

If I may, I'll add a pick for R6

9 5 2 12

R5) 6 1 3 7
I missed the favorite in second.

I'll toss in some picks:

5) 3 7 6 10
7) 7 1 8 2
9) 11 5 8 7

In case I was not clear, I am not in any way trying to be critical of Conley. He put in a lot of work on those stats and I think they are well worth careful consideration. And, as Tony said, certainly a great read.

Hopefully there are a few gems among what Conley put together.

For no valid reason, it does bring to mind the sort of thing a local radio guy would say. When this team comes off a win and plays on Monday in an east coast city against a team that has lost two in a row and has not won a Monday game in 4 years... you get the idea. lol

Thanks, Conley. Very interesting.

Tom brought up today's 8th at TAM as the favorite being a good bet against. So, I looked at the race and the chaos pattern is opposite of what has previously been discussed in this thread. The %M's of this race suggest that the field likes to expend their energy early, very early. My chaos number is 1.57, very low. The early horses tired and once again the horses that had recently shown an ability to close came in. The 2 and 7 were the closers. The 2 paid $41.20 to win and the 2-7 exacta paid $96.30.

But pace doesn't work. <wink><wink>

Just so you guys know, a few years ago I was struggling to win. Rich valentine came out of the woodwork and offered to coach me. We did 7 sessions over a couple of weeks that put me back on track. — Dave Schwartz

That's impressive.

You guys gotta know that winning players never share their secrets..... — HorseSense

That's funny.

I'm here to see if anybody is smarter than me.....or has stuff unforeseen in past 40 years :) — HorseSense

You've lost me. You can get everything out of free PP's. Who could be smarter than you?

I can get this info in Bris PDF for free — HorseSense

Why are you here? You're obviously smarter than any computer could ever be.

I'd say that one of my typical spot plays would have about 7 factors.

I've only taken a very light look so far. If my memory is right, I think Derby winners often have a race about three weeks out. It may not be the best approach, but I usually look at the Derby on the last couple of days before the race.

Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour? — Tony Kofalt

I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data.

Thanks, Tony. I appreciate your response.

Please keep this going. — Colty

We need folks like you. Thanks.

"HOW TO SELECT PACE L;INES" would make for a great topic.
Would like to see someone else post it. — Dave Schwartz

Yeah, mine is very complex.

I was also pointing out that hitting a high percentage does not ensure a profit.

I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar.

Very interesting, Tony.

Is this an art projection or is there a mechanical element to it?

One thing I've come to is to look at the same basic concept in multiple ways, looking for phoney numbers. Like speed. I have a lot of different speed numbers. And pace... lots of different ways of looking at pace. Same for class. And form. Looking for weakness or superiority. And, I have my program select my pace lines.