Thanks.

I am curious as to how Pizzolla defines value. If he's measuring against the tote board, the whales can eat him up. If he's waiting for a horse that will obviously go off at a good price, he'll need to have a lot of patience. I do have some unplayable races, but not many.

You mention your standards. Your examples have to do with the output. I have strict standards in writing the code... always the same indentation, capitalization, white space, line continuation practices, variable naming conventions, etc. It makes the code much easier to read. When I was a programmer, we would have code walk-throughs and if you wrote outside the standards, you'd really get raked over the coals. That was an even tougher situation because someone else might have to read the code, but it s very important that you be able to read it yourself.

An even bigger problem is to not look for the code at all, writing it again. That means it isn't tested and may not function exactly the same.

With most coding, our initial objective can be fairly well defined and the program can be designed.

With handicapping, we can easily find a BBD (bigger, better deal) and through a major shift in our thought process have major changes to our objective. Managing the code gets really difficult.

It is easy to come up with more ideas than can be implemented efficiently within time constraints. I ALWAYS have more ideas than time. And, every day I think... man, when I finish this, it will finally be caught up. Then there's another epiphany and it all starts again.

I have been writing more or less the same program for over 25 years. It is not nearly as organized as I would like after all the changes. The original program cannot easily be found within what I have today, major changes. I really need a total re-write. But when? I keep coming up with and implementing new ideas, some of which I consider great, at least in my own mind.

So, I guess my best advice, which I need to take more seriously, is to slow down and keep everything tidy and self-documented.

Sorry as I dont believe I had the answer you were looking for. — Tony Kofalt

I like that your answers are based on your experiences and not what we are looking for.

OK, this one:

https://objects-us-east-1.dream.io/hstreet/NewVideos/HSC-KyDby%2BHow%20I%20Play.mp4

How do we find the BA LO horse?

By the way, apparently you don't have to be a genius to make the right bet. The reason I got involved in structuring that wager was that the guy didn't know how much a $1 10x1x10 wager would cost. Well, I did give him the winner in leg 3, too. So, for anyone arithmetic challenged, he spent $440. So, I guess the key was to have $440 and to know the potential was BIG. Legs 1 and 3 were on the turf. Leg 1 was won by a 25/1. Leg 3 I think paid about 9/2, the 4. This was a LONG time ago, so I hope my memory is ok. I do remember I got a free beer out of it.

I just ran across this quote:

The distance between your dreams and reality is called action.

Hope this is not seen as hijacking the thread, but I think it fits here.

Very true, Dave. We should all read your message every wagering day.

It appears to me that most people are doing one (or both) of two things:

1) Betting the "best horse", regardless of whether it is logical as to winning TODAY.
2) Betting against the tote, as you allude.

Both make a profit very unlikely. Your strategy is the better path.

I once helped a guy structure a P3 ticket:
All-5-All twice
All-5-3 twice
All-5-4 twice
He hit it 4 times. The horse in the middle leg was Easy Goer, who won with win odds of 2/5 against 3yo's after beating older two weeks earlier (as sure as it gets). The P3 paid $1,600 (x4). So, this guy got better than 13/1 on a 2/5 horse.

Good point!

Gonna be a bright sunshiney day.

Here are some ideas: — Tony Kofalt

Good comments!

What's needed is a "What LOSES at you track" mindset but qualified by 3/1 or less. Then the game's expectancy changes. — Biniak

That's true, except... it is sometimes situational. I think we have to handicap the race as well as the horses in the race.

Not a horse that WILL LOSE TODAY, but a horse that will lose money long-term. — Dave Schwartz

I agree.

For me, there are 4 kinds of odds situations:

1) A heavy favorite that is a likely winner.
2) A contentious race where the selection has to be among the 3 odds line favorites
3) A race with a vulnerable favorite, but a likely mid-range winner
4) A chaos race, where the winner could be in any odds range. True chaos races are fairly rare and ones where there is a legit long-shot with potential are even rarer. But when they come along, they pay big.

A huge portion of races fall within those 4 categories. I think we have to discern which category a race is in. There's very seldom a "best horse" that goes off as a longshot and wins... just not going to happen.

It seems to me the whales are on the "best horse" a lot. We have to find races where the "best horse" is vulnerable. It's still a parimutuel game... yes, the whales can bet a horse to 1/5, but that means there may be a 7/1 with a shot.

I guess I should have mentioned that I was a professional programmer for about 20 years, using mostly Clipper.

AllData was free and I think there is still a web site for it. Try a Google search

I will simply say that you have them severely underrated. Their software is way beyond fairly good. — Dave Schwartz

Thanks, I didn't mean to underestimate. If they weren't really good, they wouldn't be risking millions of dollars. On the other hand, it is not impossible to find plays to beat them. When you can beat them, the rewards can be great.