Comments

  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    The PP Generator can merge the works, sample below. I really hate the way they interupt the running lines with the claimed from comments. Grrrrrrrr!

    Back before TFUS, CJ sold his figures to a group and one of the great things was he had a way to replace some data in the $1 files with his pace and speed figs so we could have the PPs with his numbers.
    Attachment
    Vagrancy 2022 (123K)
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    I'm too set in my ways to stray too far from the basic format. I've been using them since Dr Fager.
    What I do like is the options and filters Bris Custom Generator offers. Similar to the method Michael Pizzola outlined in Handicapping Magic I use the filter to see only the races within 1 furlong of today's distance and on the same surface, set to show only races where the horse was w/in 2 lengths at the first two calls, evaluate the early pace scenario from there. I make a composite EP and SR, similar to a Qurinn pace/speed figure.

    The next step I do is remove the early pace filter and view all the appropriate lines and see what closers can overcome the projected pace.

    Tomorrow's 2nd at Belmont is attached in two files, the first pass and the second pass, for examples.
    I found a dominant pace horse, the #1, who's 105/84 should put away all the other front runners with the exception of the $6, who cuts back off a very fast route pace. In the second pass, the #2 comes into the picture as a closer who has already won against the projected pace.
    Attachments
    bel r2 0514 1st pass filtered (155K)
    bel 051422 2nd pass all positions (161K)
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    It was just for Aqu, based on ongoing records, but it has stood up nicely at other tracks. I am going to re-evaluate for Bel as I get more data. I am just starting to handicap Bel this week.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    So if we have 3 lines to sort/weigh, might using a Fibonocci be useful?
    Good thread!
  • What about jockeys?
    I think it would even better if broken down by surface/distance as well.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    (Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.)Dave Schwartz

    If that were true, I would be A rich man.
    Would you contact NYRA and explain that to them?

    TY
  • What about jockeys?
    It's in the Bris Ultimate PPs.
    As Richie Migliore says about early speed as a weapon,"They have to go where I've already been."
    Attachment
    jockey stat (55K)
  • What about jockeys?
    At NYRA tracks, jockey is a big part of my pace evaluation.
    Too many riders refuse to use a horse's speed and some of them are big names,
    When evaluating early horses, I have to take that into account.

    A stat I look at is the riders's record by running style.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    What I do is first look for overlays in the top 3 or 4. If I find a decent one, say my 7-2 line 3rd horse is 8-1, I'm really interested. If noting jumps out, I look at the lowest line horse and disparage it. Why can't it win, what's negative in its record, why can't it win? Often, the lowest line horse is just "terrible" on paper, all of its good numbers coming from a turf marathon on yielding grass a year ago in a stakes race and today it's in a 5.5F claimer on dirt. I may mentally add a half point for each major negative I find, say taking the horse from 9-5 to 3-1. Or just say "no thanks" and move on.
    Since only the last line is used, I also double check to see if a potentially top rated horse got left out due to a bad last race that is really excusable.

    If I have a 8-5 top horse, and the next horses are bunched, say 4-1, 9-2, 5-1....I might consider a part wheel over them, or, if the top horse is suspect, I might bet 2-3 others to win or W/P. The handicapping begins once the line is ready. Funny, it is much like the process Beyer outlined in his chapter "Putting it All Together" in his book Picking Winners," and just yesterday dnglfnk at PA talked about HE uses that very chapter in his process.
  • Jockey is part-time outrider!
    Tried to attach the mp4 but it didn't work.
    Try this link to download the video:

    https://app.box.com/s/v5t13a01tjgwjyaaaygwazxz4clwvrw7
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    The composite and synthetic pace ideas make think your RegSpeedSort method might work well to elimiate the abberant pace figs and allow a deeper comparisob between early and other than early horses.
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    I came across a horse that might be relevent to not only paceline selection, but eliminating loe priced horses as weel. Today at Tampa Bay, R8, the 2-1 ML favorite looks suspicious at first glance. He dropped in class after a good race returning from a layoff, but not only didn't he win, he ran a significantly lower Beyer figure. Today, he is rising back up in class.

    His DRF PPs and commentary are in the attached PDF file.
    Attachment
    TAM EXAMPLE (627K)
  • Bet against spot plays?
    Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet.

    That says more than many handicapping books!
    Thanks for the list.
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    Tony,

    An idea put forth by Randy Giles was to use the best of last 3 E2 and LP to rate horses who met certain criteria. I have used that many times over the years with annecdotal success (no data).

    I have also tried best 2 of last 4 E2 and LP, and using the last 3 and throwing out the best and worst. So far, I having good results. I make 4 ratingd, E2, LP, Total, and Factor W (E2+E2+LP) / 3. I have tried the late version (E2+LP+LP) / 3, but results were marginal on dirt but slightly encouraging on AW rotes and turf routes.

    Interesting to see what Dave says about composite pace.
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    Good list.
    I like to find 2 lines, to make I'm not using abberant lines.
    I want to to use lines that will show what the horse will do when at the right distance, surface, and class level. So I am not afraid to use lines #7 and #10 if that's what it takes. I am looking at pace ability, nothing else. Class, form, trainer intent can be evaluated using recent races, works, riders, etc.
    Howard Sartin used to stress, don't put horses in the computer that you think can't win, and if you think a horse can win, don't use a line that won't let him.

    One thing I watch out for are extreme paced races. BRIS has race shapes listed, and I am hesitent to use races where the race shapes are beyond +6 or -6. That is +/- 3/5s of a second. Steve Davidowitz once did a study that suggest that range was more realistic than Quirrin's +/- 1/5, and my own research when I was using HTR gave the same results.

    If today's race has more than one horse likely to run extreme early, I will use those extreme lines.
    Another thing I look for is riders. If the rider who last won or finished close on the horse, I may go backand use a line where he/she was on.

    Of course, we have to take what the PPs give us. Sometimes we can't find ideal lines and have to use what there is. Or pass.

    There are a lot of races every day, and there is another one coming up in 5 minutes.
  • Chaos
    Oh yeah, and the trifecta in that was Dave's video premise of "within 1 of the third ranked horse."
    There were only 3 contenders, and they ran 1-2-3.
  • Chaos
    Ranch, looking at you Aqu5th example, the lone early, and favorite, was the best speed fig by a significent gap, but that number was his best ever and came almost 2 month ago. The rest of the field was a cluster, so as you suggested, when the early dosen't show, chaos can step in.

    Going back over the data I used to set up my Ultimate Odds project, 90% of the winners were ranked 1-5 in Bris PP. There were 15% horses that paid $18.00 or more. Of those, 71% were ranked 5 or higher on PP, and of those fully 50% were ranked 1-2-3 in LP last race.

    I would have thought early would be the common thread, but it appears your observation of a recent closing effort is worth following. I will be adding a step to my handicapping to look for horses from this group.

    Great thread!
  • Chaos
    Interesting topic. Ranch pushes the creative boundries!
    As to the topic of early style vs early figs, I have been testing a new (for me) early rating, simply the sum of the horse's QSP + the sum of the best two of last four BRIS E1 ratings. So far, it been very useful in seperating the early horses and identifying contentious early races. It's not a single line value so I thought it would out-perform.

    Ranch, you mention the big race, and I agree that is positive, I have come up with a hierarcy of last race performance, that is my best case scenario.

    1-The big win
    2- A good race
    3-Acceptable race (front half of the field, within 6 lrngths)
    4-Excuse race, not good, but not a failure
    5-A Failure race


    =
  • Your thoughts please
    If they shut off betting 2 minutes to post time, there would be chaos at Gulfstream, where they leave the gat 25 minute after[/i post time.