Disregard the above as I was hoping for a “fast” track….

Tony, since you have a strong opinion on R4 - #6 (Basic Truth), I say go for it! I agree that he will most likely be on the lead turning for home….

However, I’ve always had trouble getting the horses to do what I want in bottom of the barrel two-year old races (yes, I know they just turned three)…I think the #10 and the #6 will be the top two betting choices and the most likely winners of the race (respectively 2/1 (or less) and 5/2 – 3/1).

At first glance, I also like a prospective single in both Pick5 legs…the #4 (Gasoline) in R5. To me, he appears to have the most upside as a young, lightly raced and hopefully still improving gelding…he’s always well bet and this looks like a good spot to get his second win….

So, my ticket in the first Pick5 will be a caveman as follows: 1,2,4,5,7 / ALL* / 3,4,6 / 6, 10 / 4
*Note: Trying to create some value in leg 2 hoping someone can snap the #2 (I know, not likely!)

In the second Pick5, I’m trying to create value in the first leg as follows:
R4) A’s = 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 --- B’s = 6, 10
R5) A’s = 4
R6) A’s = 1,2
R7) A’s = 1 --- B’s = 7
R8) A’s = 2,5,8 --- B’s = 1,3,4,6,7 --- C’s = 9

Like you said, “there are many ways to project a race”!

Best of luck today!

As Barry Meadow so accurately concludes in the introduction of his book, The Skeptical Handicapper, “we are all winners…because we are horseplayers”.

So, my fellow “horseplayers”, let me say again, I was very lucky that a few of my selections found the wire first…. We all made good picks to “live” contenders; but, it’s Saratoga…it takes a huge amount of good fortune to get into the winner’s circle! I sincerely believe we could have the same contest ten different times and have ten different winners….

Ranch, thanks for doing all the heavy lifting…sending prayers your way for continued good health!

Good luck and good fortune to all my fellow “horseplayers”!

09.05.22

Race8_#2_Air Attack - $10 Win
#7_Portos - $10 Win

Race10_#1_Cocktail Moments - $10 Win
#4_Minute Waltz - $10 Win

$20 to Win:
Race11_#4_Gulfport

Race12_#2_Tosconova Beauty - $10 Win
#1_Cupid's Heart - $10 Win

09.02.22

$20 to Win:
Race4_#5_Bustin Bay

$20 to Win:
Race9_#1_Wicked Halo

Good Luck to my fellow handicappers.... I'm squirting oil these last few days and ripe to be overtaken.... Wishing you all "Big Balloons"!

09.01.22

$20 to Win:
Race3_#6 (Turf Only)

08.31.22

$20 to Win:
Race3_#5 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race4_#3 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race7_#4 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race8_#2

$20 to Win:
Race9_#2 (Turf Only)

8/27/22

$20 to win on each
R1: #3
R3: #4
R6: #5
R7: #3
R11: #1

8/26/22

$20 to win on each
R2: #3
R3: #4
R5: #5

8/25/22

$20 to win on each
R3: #7
R4: #7

KEY POINT:
In this age, there is no single skill that you can master...
that will improve your results...
more than learning to pick winning and losing favorites. — Dave Schwartz

Great Stuff.... Dave, thanks for sharing!

For anyone interested, I've attached a one page summary of Dave's 3-part discussion on "Concepts & POV".

Disclaimer: I do not pretend to be an authority or profess to be some genius handicapper…. This is simply my two cents.

To echo Dave’s remarks, in an earlier life, I was involved in a manufacturing industry as a sub-contract supplier to large corporations…specifically suppling sheet metal fabrications and machined components. Due to the high level of quality control required by our customers, we were given an on-going challenge for continuous quality improvement…. In other words, project specific improvement goals with measurable results.

To relate this to horse race handicapping, you would define your total process and then select an area within the overall process that required improvement…. For example, your process component of “contender selection”…. First you would need to establish (via your records) an existing baseline (or, if you do not have a baseline, you would need to spend some time and develop one)…. OK, let’s say one of your top three contenders wins the race 60% of the time…you feel you can do better and you set a new goal of 65% winners in top 3…you brainstorm with others; you read forums; you re-read handicapping books; you purchase new handicapping products/innovations; you decide to keep better records via a database; or whatever you feel can push more winners to the top…. Then you set a reasonable time frame to achieve your goal (let’s say six months)…. Then, at the end of your selected time frame, you measure your results against the goal you wanted to achieve…. This is a never-ending pursuit; so, rinse and repeat as necessary.

From reading some of Tom’s posts on this and other boards, I believe he worked in a QC field and perhaps could wade in on this discussion/approach….

Any critique of this concept is welcomed and appreciated.

How are you relating this to horse racing? Are you making the case for a bet against low odds horse to tilt the odds? — Biniak

It has nothing to do with betting against low odds horses.... It's about a money management strategy that teaches you how to make an optimum bet to accelerate bankroll growth (it's anti Kelly Criterion).... The product is called "The Opponent Method" and you can find it in Dave's Store…. You should check it out and weather or not you end of using this exact approach, you won’t be sorry you bought it!

08.20.22

$20 to Win:
Race5_#1 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race8_#1 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race11_#6 (Turf Only)

08.19.22

$20 to Win:
Race1_#5

$20 to Win:
Race2_#3 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race3_#4

$20 to Win:
Race5_#6

$20 to Win:
Race6_#9 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race9_#6 (Turf Only)

08.18.22

$20 to Win:
Race1_#5

$20 to Win:
Race6_#4 (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race10_#1 (Turf Only)

08.17.22

$20 to Win:
Race3_#7_Backed by Gold

$20 to Win:
Race8_#5_Caramocha

$20 to Win:
Race10_#10_Ocean Air (Turf Only)

08.13.22

$20 to Win:
Race2_#3_Mount Athos

$20 to Win:
Race5_#1_Tosconova Beauty

08.11.22

$10 to Win on each:
Race2_#4_Violent Point
Race2_#6_Weekend Fun

08.10.22

$20 to Win:
Race2_#1_Prince of Fenton

$20 to Win:
Race3_#9_Makar (Turf Only)

$20 to Win:
Race4_#5_Sibelius

$20 to Win:
Race8_#1_Isolate