08.06.22

$20 to Win:
Race2_#5_Mostly Harmless

Thanks! I keep getting lucky…. Although, once the MTO’s came out, the #3 clearly looked to be the controlling early speed but surprisingly in the end, never really got bet like lone speed…. Regardless, still need a little luck to find the wire first! Thanks again!

08.04.22

$20 to Win:
Race7_#3_Spicy Marg (Turf Only)

Sorry, forgot to specify turf only for Sar9 / $20 win on #4_Poca Mucha.

08.03.22

$20 to Win:
Race7_#3_Tiergan

$20 to Win:
Race8_#3_Buckingham Prince

$20 to Win:
Race9_#4_Poca Mucha

Ranch, at present I believe only race 2 was taken off the turf?

Regardless and perhaps going forward, contestant should indicate turf only when submitting selections?

07.29.22
Adding....
$20 to Win:
Race1_#2_Golden Alchemist

07.29.22

$20 to Win:
Race6_#9_Ten Cent Town

$20 to Win:
Race7_#7_Creative Minister

07.28.22

$20 to Win:
Race3_#2_ Auburn Hills

$20 to Win:
Race4_#2_Sinful Dancer

07.23.22

$20 to Win:
Race4_#3_Wings Like Eagles

07.22.22

$20 to Win:
Race4_#3_ Miss Bonnie T

$20 to Win:
Race10_#8_ Let Her Inspire U

"Regression to the Mean" should set in shortly....

Ranch, thanks for doing all the book work!

07.21.22

$20 to Win
Sar5_#5_Domineer

07.20.22

$20 to Win:
Race7_#3_ Hey There

ALL $20 to Win:

Race3_#7_Escapewithfriends
Race4_#5_Zoomer
Race5_#4_Disco Deano
Race6_#3_Majestic Tiger
Race7_#4_Lady Thornhill

You're right.... it's not for everyone.
However, I should have elaborated.... Gary helped me write VBA code that imported tote odds into my custom spreadsheet...it happened instantaneously at the push of a couple of buttons: (1) one for the track of choice and (2) one to import into excel spreadsheet…. I have no problem playing multiple tracks at one time (no hassle whatsoever).
I wonder if you could work something out with him?
No response needed…just food for thought.

ATRpro.... great value at $99.00 per year!

Dave has a product entitled "Understanding Early Speed".... In one of the later chapters he defines four distinct race shapes based upon "pace pressure" (using Quirin Early Speed Points).... If there is "no discernable pace pressure" or in other words, pace pressure is not predictable, then you have a "chaos" race.... This "process" has served me well and I'll leave it to Dave to elaborate if he so chooses....

Or, I'm sure he'd be pleased if you purchased this excellent product!

BTW, I'm not a shill for Dave and I must admit I've purchased most all of his products.... I've both used and discarded many of his ideas; but without exception, I've found handicapping "nuggets" in all of them!

Tony, that was a bad beat! The #2 ran great and you made a great pick! Great handicapping!

Also,
When playing horizontals, it’s important to remember the math…. Assuming, Tony is playing the early pick5 at Belmont and has found a single that should be a big price (#2 in race 4)…. Let’s assume Tony feels his “single” has a 25% chance of success and in the other four legs Tony feels he has an 80% chance to score.

On a “caveman ticket”, this means .8 x .8 x .8 x .25 x .8 = .1024

So, Tony has a 10% chance to hit this ticket or a 9/1 chance…. If he’s correct with his probability estimates and even though it’s hard to know exactly what the pick5 payout might be, he definitely has value at 9/1!

But, if his actual probability is .5 x .5 x .5 x .15 x .5 = .0094, he has a 1% or 99/1 chance of hitting his ticket….

Most of us know this, but just wanted to share a friendly reminder on how hard it is to hit the pick5! Most importantly, and even though it’s a best guess, it’s valuable to assign probabilities to each leg and make a forecast for success.

Not sure why I feel the need to share this; but, oh well....