Comments

  • Researching negatives

    I am doing it the old fashioned way in a notebook ;)
  • Researching negatives
    Ranch right now I am keeping track of track biases and specifically looking at poor/bad or "negative" biases that I can see

    I am doing almost 99% of the tracks on North America right now and have data starting from the start of this month if anyone wanted a quick sneak peek of what I do (which is probably nobody)
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Top 4 Selections:
    :9: Helium 2-1
    :6: Burning Man 10-1
    :7: English Conqueror 20-1
    :1: Bright Devil (Ire) 15-1

    Suggested Wagers
    Win :9: and :6:
    Exacta :9::6::7:/:6::7::1:
    Trifecta :9::6::7:/:9::6::7::1:/:9::6::7::1:
    Superfecta :9::6::7:/:9::6::7::1:/:9::6::7::1::3:/:9::6::7::1::3::4:
    Conley

    2nd 6th 5th 4th

    Win x
    Exacta x
    Trifecta x/9/x
    Superfecta x/9/3/1 paid $183.96
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    I worked all day yesterday and did not post for the "jinx" when I post early so I had 8-1-5-4 in case anyone wanted to know
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Thanks for all of your work Conley!William Zayonce

    Thank you! I appreciate you saying that! :)
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Starting a new ROTD for Woodbine as I do not have the time to do all the races

    WOO R7 5/22/22 OC62k/c Purse $108700 1 1/16 miles AW Post Time 4:27 pm

    1) 6.6 #4
    2) 9.6 #9
    3) 7.6 #5
    4) 8.0 #6
    5) 9.0 #7
    6) 6.3 #2
    7) 6.3 #3
    8) 9.3 #8
    9) 6.0 #1

    Ranked
    9) 6.0
    6) 6.3
    7) 6.3
    1) 6.6
    3) 7.6
    4) 8.0
    5) 9.0
    8) 9.3
    2) 9.6

    Top 4 Selections:
    :9: Helium 2-1
    :6: Burning Man 10-1
    :7: English Conqueror 20-1
    :1: Bright Devil (Ire) 15-1

    Suggested Wagers
    Win :9: and :6:
    Exacta :9::6::7:/:6::7::1:
    Trifecta :9::6::7:/:9::6::7::1:/:9::6::7::1:
    Superfecta :9::6::7:/:9::6::7::1:/:9::6::7::1::3:/:9::6::7::1::3::4:
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    My next line is I was the jockey. So don't say "bad ride", it was just nerves.Biniak
    must have got bit by the bug (bug boy) lol
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Going to pass again on today's card at @WoodbineTB as I am thinking on doing a "Race Of The Day" feature for the rest of the meet starting on Sunday

    Sorry to everyone who wants full card selections for Woodbine I am working all the time and cannot commit to doing that
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Results from 8 races today

    R1: no hits

    R2: no hits

    R3: :2: $9.70

    R4: :4: $4.70 + $10.70 Exacta

    R5: :2: $5.00 + $7.70 Exacta

    R6: :4: $5.40 + $4.90 Exacta

    R7: :3: $5.20 + $8.60 Exacta $2.86 Trifecta $4.47 Superfecta

    R8: 3rd pick won + $24.10 Exacta $15.41 Trifecta
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    5/20

    R1: :3::4::2::6:

    R2: :1::7::3::2:

    R3: :4::2::6::1:

    R4: :5::4::7::2:

    R5: :3::2::5::6:

    R6: :7::4::3::6:

    R7: :3::4::1::2:

    R8: :12::4::8::1:

    Best Bet: Race 1 #3 Twice as Smart 8/5
    Longshot Play: Race 8 #12 I Am Resilient 8-1
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    On a side note, how is your quest to be a Woodbine analyst going? Just curious.Biniak

    They are still in the process of hiring but I put my name in there with a good friend who works at the track and she has connections to management so fingers crossed!
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Passing on today's card as I do not have the time this morning to make my selections

    I will be back tomorrow for live racing at Woodbine with 1st post at 4:50 pm EST

    Also, I will be releasing my Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Day selections as soon as possible
  • Old Racing System
    How bad would it be if I posted some systems that are NOT copyrighted? Dave thoughts? or is that a bad idea

    Just thought if I would post others around here can play around with the systems and test to see how "good" or "bad" they really are plus it is a good learning experience to see what works in a system and what doesn't so that person can create there own set a rule that works for them!

    BTW: Ron Stabiles Figs Winning System doesn't have a copyright on it's cover
  • Old Racing System


    You are correct did find the title later on.

    I have tons of systems just like this which I also found yesterday
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Results from 10 races today

    R1: no hits

    R2: 3rd pick won + $37.90 Exacta

    R3: :1: $4.70

    R4: no hits

    R5: 3rd pick won + $16.75 Exacta

    R6: no hits

    R7: 4th pick won + $41.85 Exacta

    R8: no hits

    R9: 4th pick won + $28.00 Exacta $16.52 Trifecta $28.35 Superfecta

    R10: :9: $5.80

    Well not the start we have wanted but I will keep trying
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Wow!
    If you have a systematic way of producing numbers that results in a flat bet profit, that makes you the only one that I am aware of.
    Dave Schwartz

    Can you please be a reference when Woodbine calls for the analyst position in the next few weeks?
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    How good are those figs of yours?
    Any stats?
    Dave Schwartz

    I did test them at Keeneland Fall 2021 I also did do Breeders Cup last year
    Final Stats for the 2021 Keeneland Fall Season
    Winners on Top: 27/78 (34.6%) Bet: $156.00 Returned: $217.20 Profit/Loss: +61.20
    Winners Top 2: 35/78 (44.8%)
    Winners Top 3: 48/78 (61.5%)
    Winners Top 4: 58/78 (74.3%)

    Breeders Cup 2021
    Friday
    R6: no hits
    R7: #6 $3.60 + Exa Tri Sup
    R8: #1 $21.80 + Exa
    R9: #12 $4.80
    R10: no hits

    Saturday
    R4: 3rd pick won + Exa Tri Sup
    R5: no hits
    R6: #5 $3.80 + Exa
    R7: #8 $10.60
    R8: #5 $24.60 (2nd choice but I count still as winner T2) + Exa
    R9: #3 $6.20
    R10: no hits
    R11: no hits
    R12: #5 $8.40

    8 winners Top 2/14 races
    5 exactas 2 trifectas 2 supers
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Has anyone ever tried Thorograph? Can you offer any comments on the layout and the data presented? How do you deal with pace in the product? Just curiousTony Kofalt

    I have and did for a short period of time due to the information being very expensive but then I created my own ThoroGraph "figure" and now I don't buy them since I do the figures myself

    It took a while to get a formula going for it but now I use it for my every day handicapping which I call the "CFigs" which I thought was pretty inventive lol

    I also do my own harness ratings which combine Form Class Speed Driver and Overall rating of the horse to create 1 full rating for each horse

    Sorry for getting off track but I think if everyone works hard to make themselves better in the game you can go very far in life!
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    5/15

    R1: :8::3::2::9:

    R2: :9::6::3::2:

    R3: :6::1::5::4:

    R4: :5::4::1::2:

    R5: :3::4::8::5:

    R6: :10::2::12::6:

    R7: :7::3::10::5:

    R8: :10::5::4::2:

    R9: :6::1::7::5:

    R10: :6::9::5::8:

    Best Bet: Race 3 #1 Real Money 5/2
    Longshot Play: Race 4 #5 Beravina 15-1
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Can I ask if you are manually handicapping every race of using an automated method of making your selections?Tony Kofalt

    Hi Tony I am all automated which does make it easier and saves money on printing but when I do go to the track I will still get a program

    I hope that my Oaklawn models are going to be just as good as Woodbine just need to keep the faith!