Comments

  • Looking for suggestions regarding early speed and race setup


    It does.
    Those are the best pace numbers I've ever seen and far better than what are generated using my own par times.

    I know his formula (because he shared it with me), and could implement and improve it using my pars. But that would just not be cool.

    So, I continue to utilize his numbers.

    BTW, in dirt route races the best ever F1 top rank is slightly profitable ($2.02 $net).
  • Key 'bet against' in Aqu early P5


    I love the way you leverage your opinion.
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process


    Does what I describe hold enough interest for you to consider using the software?
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process
    Would there be plenty of room for mistakes? lolRanchWest

    I sure hope we could find some.

    Imagine that you want to track something - what I call FLAG.

    You create a tag for a FLAG - giving it a name on the left, and a description on the right.

    left pane: Flag Name=Lone ES Races
    right pane: Question= "In a race with just one horse with ES Pts 7+, how often does that horse actually get the lead at the 1st call?"
    right pane: A simple table that allows you to manually enter each such horse in a row with whatever columns you want.
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process
    Dave, I'm sorry if I wasn't clear but I don't know of a way to assign notes to jockeys or trainers. You can add notes for individual horses, a race (which adds the notes to each horse in the race) or by card which adds the note to every horse on the card.Tony Kofalt

    So glad to hear that. LOL
    Hope we can have a call soon so I can discuss what I have in mind.

    The idea is that notes are almost free form in the sense that there are tagging columns.

    Think of them as key words.
    Examples:
    • Horse
    • Jockey
    • Trainer
    • Track
    • Race ID (i.e. Date/Trakc/RaceNum)
    • Date
    • Chart
    • Bias, Pace
    • Bias, Post Pos
    • My Bets

    The note system contains a powerful search engine.

    Imagine you are looking at a chart the day after the race.
    Horse #1 had trouble.
    You write a note.
    You also can drag-and-drop a link to the video for the race.

    You tag the horse & jockey.
    Obviously, the date, track, and race numbers are tagged automatically.

    In that same race, the winner won because of the trouble the first horse had.
    So, you tag that horse in the same note.

    The note is saved.
    _________
    When horse #1 runs back, all his past notes are listed.
    You see the trouble note.
    When you open that note, you also see the other tags (i.e. jockey, horse, etc.).

    You could also find the note in the Jockey's notes.

    All tags can be opened at the same time in a Tree-like format.

    An example would be this tool that I use to store code from different programs that I've written.
    kd08jkah0xst1awz.jpg

    The topics would show in the left pane, with the notes on the right.

    Does this pique your interest?

    BTW, you COULD maintain statistics in the DOCUMENT (the right hand pane).
    Bets
    Tickets (flagged as won or lost; for tax purposes)
    Big Winners
    Mistakes
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process


    That is just what I am looking for.

    So, can you hook trainer, jockey and horse notes to a chart as well?

    And, if you look at a trainer, can you see notes for trainer+jockey?

    Frankly, I'm trying to figure out how to do that. LOL
  • Place / Show Wagering
    My point is try to develop a methodology that 'feels' good to you. Then don't be too quick to abandon it.Tony Kofalt

    Wonderful advice. :clap: :up:
    It has to fit your style.

    IMHO, one of the reasons you've been able to support yourself as a true professional for the almost 3 decades that I've known you is that you always wear a reality hat.
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process
    To do this, I simply click on the 'Notes' button located on the right side of the line beginning with standard chart. A small window will open allowing me to enter 'Note' for each horse in the race as well as a note for the entire race (which will be added to the PP's of each starter.) I could also choose to enter a note for the entire card which will display in the PP's of each starter.Tony Kofalt

    Thank you.

    Could you take a screen shot of what the notes mechanism actually looks like?

    That's my primary area of interest.
  • Place / Show Wagering
    When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

    In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner.
  • Place / Show Wagering
    Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it nowConley

    Does make sense.
    Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should?
  • Place / Show Wagering
    WPS
    Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
    Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
    10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
    Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Conley

    What odds do you use to Dutch?
  • Place / Show Wagering


    My belief would be that you need to find a BALO.
    (Bet Against Low Odds horse)

    Not to bet against but to actually bet!

    I think that if you search for BALO and LEVERAGE POINT you will find some explanations of how and why.

    Short version: BALOs win way LESS often than they should but run 2nd way MORE often than they should.
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process
    I'm interested to see how result charts play into your handicapping process, if at all. I use DRF Formulator result charts for the following information.
    How did starters run in subsequent races.
    Did the race invert? For example, did all of the speed tire?
    What kind of Beyers did runners post in subsequent races?
    Did any of todays rivals run against a horse last time?
    Review the PP's of the winner in the last race,
    How are you utilizing result charts today? Thanks for the feedback
    Tony Kofalt

    Can you possibly show (or describe) how you keep notes for charts?

    I'm working on the notes section of the new software and would love to see a few examples of how you do it.
  • Podcast featuring Mike Maloney
    so I have access to their premium products.Tony Kofalt

    What sort of products do they offer?
  • Void claims
    @Tom

    Good post.
    The fact that you posted it caused me to actually read it this time.
    :smile:
  • Looking for suggestions regarding early speed and race setup
    @RanchWest has done some work in this area and I've got to say it has plenty of merit.

    I know Ranch has shared it before but perhaps he can reprise that a bit.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    We've reached the point of diminishing returns here.

    We see the wagering world far differently.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    I contend that the profitable ones are.

    If you have an edge, you *** ARE *** the casino.