Kind of difficult to recall precisely which are which - but 1.15 or so is pretty high.

That's probably, in part, because the average payout is, I think, around 9/2. That's average. The median is lower, somewhere around 5/2. Dave can tell us more precisely. The average gets skewed way up by the infrequent 50/1 and such horses. — RanchWest

I'd say that you're pretty close. Probably a little higher; used to be way higher. (Like $12.80.)

Except the ones that are very well-intended.

Is that 8/1 on the tote board? — RanchWest

Yes.

Thus, you'll occasionally get burned by a horse at 8/1 at gate time who goes down. Truth is that it's the double-digit horses that perform the best.

Here's an idea that has stood the test of time for over 2 decades.

1. Build COLLECTIVE SPEED
Take every speed rating for every horse and put them into an array.
i.e. 10 horses, with 10 pacelines each = 100 speed ratings.

2. Sort Speed Ratings from Best-to-Worst

3. Any horse above 8/1 that has a rating in the top 6...
... is a bet to run exactly 2nd.
Thus...

• bet to place
• key in 2nd position in exactas, trifectas, supers

4. Special Note: They RARELY WIN!

@Biniak & @RanchWest - Make sure that you really understand what's on the videos. It contains a completely different way of looking at IV Tables.

Not like Dave where things change pending on which way the wind blows — HorseSense

Clearly you and I are on different pages.
I doubt that you will offer much of anything to anyone.

Hope you change that soon.

No argument from me.

Yes, they were.

If only you hadn't followed the script of a movie. LOL
I had to take it down so I didn't get beaten up by some lawyers.

When I eventually watched the movie - Seven Days in Utopia - I realized how brilliantly you had turned the lessons in the movie into horse racing lessons.

@Rich Val

Just so you guys know, a few years ago I was struggling to win. Rich valentine came out of the woodwork and offered to coach me. We did 7 sessions over a couple of weeks that put me back on track.

Remember that, Rich?

You guys gotta know that winning players never share their secrets.....

I just gave you the most important piece of the game....

Head it and go forward — HorseSense

My experience is that winning players - and especially professional players - absolutely do share what they do.

After all, if WINNING PLAYERS really are that smart (and we are), how would anyone know if information wasn't shared?

Ping @Tony Kofalt @Rich Val

In my opinion, I would want at least 80% potential winners in any contender methodology and I am skeptical that Dave’s approach would accomplish this goal; however, using a “gap” approach has given me several ideas to pursue…. — Jack Price

I would contend (small pun coming) that the issue is not the win% on the top contenders.
The issue is figuring out which low odds horses to remove BEFORE selecting those contenders.

As you can imagine, the low odds horses will ALWAYS be at the top of the PSR list. If they aren't, then toss them as well.

Of course the low odds horses are the favorites I'm mentioning......
Does HSH have any proprietary factors to combat this? — HorseSense

Not so much proprietary , but of course.
We build OBJECTS - which are from 1 to 6 factors weighted together.

That was from Fraser Rawlinson.

Actually, you've described the basis of my handicapping - although for me it all begins with the low odds horses.

With this complicated software , your resorting to PSR with Early and Late? — HorseSense

The game is more difficult than ever and I have no interest in playing without long-term profitability.

I'm always ready to be taught something - simple or complicated - that allows me to continue to win.

Do you have anything to offer?

I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data. — RanchWest

Actually, ultimately, it boils down to a few meaningful objects with the right application.

Still the game isn't easy.

Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour? — Tony Kofalt

Yes, that is one of the tools.
We also have one called the OBJECT MASTER that allows you to turn on as many as 300 factors and optimize and object using a pretty cool approach.

Imagine 300^4 = 8.1 billion permutations - searching for the best object for (say) $net in the #1 rank. You can run something like that against 20,000 races in about 3 hours.

Well, let's get somebody else to start the thread and then we can tell them what we do.

Of course, I don't CURRENTLY use it because I don't "select pacelines," but my system is built into HSH where anyone can see it.

(HSH has a programmable paceline selection mechanism. Well, it has a couple of dozen, actually, and the users can create their own.)

And, I have my program select my pace lines. — RanchWest

"HOW TO SELECT PACE L;INES" would make for a great topic.
Would like to see someone else post it.

@Colty - How about you? Do you have any opinions?