• RanchWest
    277
    Tony, we got it right. Ran second.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav Bel 5-14

    Belmont Race 2- Stanhope- will most likely open a clear lead with apprentice Gomez in the irons but figures to shorten strides in the late going. May open up a price opportunity in the early P4 and P5.
  • RanchWest
    277
    5-14 Belmont Race 5 - Chateau #1

    This should be a really tough race and I look for this one to exert too much early energy. Even with the early go, he will be challenged early and I look for him to level out up the stretch. This one is wide open, but I wouldn't be surprised if uncoupled entry mate Mr. Phil, #6, took this one.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Fully agree on chateau. I have him pegged to finish last on my projections. He won't be on any P4 or P5 tickets for me. I feel like I'm between Drafted and Repo Rocks
  • RanchWest
    277
    I feel like I'm between Drafted and Repo RocksTony Kofalt

    Could be, but it looks like a spread race to me.
  • RanchWest
    277
    Mr. Phil scratched. Chateau ran second. Tony, good call on Drafted!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Belmont 5-15
    Race 2- Act Like Artie- several in here have competitive projected figs. Can take a low price in open event
  • Biniak
    48
    I don't want to muddy this thread with daily updates on something theoretical but I will keep up on it and post the Excel file weekly or so to see if we can find a nice DTOP angle for eliminating short prices. What I can say is that on Day 1 none of the post-time favs were winners so promising start.Dustin Korth

    Dustin it has been a while since this post. Any updates?
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav for Belmont 5-19
    Race 3- My Delicious (5-2)- On form filly has finished 2nd in 4 consecutive starts. I see a few pricey sleepers in here which could result in well-paying horizontal gimmicks
  • Biniak
    48
    Tony,

    I did a little research on your VF list as of 02-06 that you might be interested in. My hypothesis was selecting any of the other top 5 final odds horses would show a flat bet profit. Take a look and see if you can understand my spreadsheet. You will have to scroll down to see a betting summary. Then customize the filter on column O to "greater than or equal to 0.4"
    Attachment
    BALO (163K)
  • Dustin Korth
    43

    I fall into the category of handicappers that have an entire folder of Excel sheets they struggle to keep up on. I have the full list of candidates that qualified for the pattern but need to play major catch-up and put in all the final odds to filter it down to only favorites. After the Preakness, I'll get it done and holler back.
  • Biniak
    48
    That would be nice! Look forward to it.
  • Dustin Korth
    43


    Double Pace Top - form cycle pattern from Cary Fotias. It's a running line that features the horse's fastest half mile split of career along with their fastest final figure of career. Often a bounce spot.
  • RanchWest
    277


    Is there a guideline on the number of career races before DTOP would come into play?
  • Dustin Korth
    43

    No hard rule was given, just that the runner should be "in campaign."
    To me, that means 3rd or 4th start without 60 days rest depending on the runner.
  • RanchWest
    277


    Thanks! You've answered my next question before I even thought to ask it. :)
  • Dustin Korth
    43

    If this is a concept you're going to play with, I'll also offer that the Top Final should be a certain amount better than the previous Lifetime Top. (So running barely better than ever before doesn't trigger it).

    Apply this scale to whatever figures you're using to match what Cary did:
    For 6F races, 3 lengths
    For 8F races, 4 lengths
    For 10F races, 5 lengths
    etc
  • RanchWest
    277


    I found 11 such horses today. Only one finished above 3rd. It was a favorite that was in a maiden race after having been in a stakes race two back and that one won.
  • Dustin Korth
    43

    Small sample but sounding like it could apply to your metrics pretty affectively!
  • RanchWest
    277
    Yes, I will have to follow it for a while. Many of the horses were not very high on my odds line, so most of those would not be expected to win anyway. I suspect that after a good effort, the trainers may get overly ambitious. That or the horse has a race out of the norm. Still, I think it is always good to have an elimination factor that is effective, even if it is not eliminating a low odds horse. It's one less horse to analyze.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Tell me more if you guys have the time.

    What about if you don't have CAREER and just have last 10?
  • RanchWest
    277
    What about if you don't have CAREER and just have last 10?Dave Schwartz

    I only have last 10, so that is what I was using. I just used BRIS speed and pace figures. I allowed 2 points no matter what the distance. Otherwise, I think I pretty much followed Dustin's guidelines. I required at least 4 lifetime starts.

    I found 11 horses on 20 cards. There was also one at Miles City, but I haven't been able to find the results on that one. So, it is a rare situation, but so far it is very good.
  • RanchWest
    277
    The one winner was in the 8th at SA.
  • Dustin Korth
    43

    If you only had last 10, I might call it a "Cyclical DTOP" and study. I only know the concept applied to lifetime figs.
  • Mark
    8
    I had a friend of mine look at the Vulnerable Favorites Portfolio on Black Magic today. They won 7 of 30 races for a win total of $34. These were the ML favorite.
  • RanchWest
    277
    If you only had last 10, I might call it a "Cyclical DTOP" and study. I only know the concept applied to lifetime figs.Dustin Korth

    I take it you are comfortable with the lifetime figs. You could be right. My initial impression is that I don't trust going back more than 10 races. Can you offer something that might change my perspective?
  • Dustin Korth
    43

    Hmmm, I suppose you should stick to defining things the way that make sense to you. But I go lifetime because I think it's less discriminating. Let's say Horse A and Horse B both pop lifetime bests late in their 3-year old season. Horse A races monthly as a 4-year old and builds up to that same running line and triggers a DTOP b/c the last peak is outside 10 races. Horse B races every two months and builds up to the same running line but doesn't trigger a DTOP b/c he's still within 10 races of the last peak. Not sure these two hypothetical runners should be separated as inclusion/exclusion here.
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