• Tony Kofalt
    277
    Thanks Ranch and Jim!! The 6 is my highest rated horse as well. I'm going 4 deep in my wagers hoping to get some price horses.
  • RanchWest
    278
    4AQU Finish 1 6 5 9, #1 paid $10.00 to win, 1-6 exacta paid $20.70.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L fav for Sat 1-1-22 at Aqu
    Race 1- Noble Thought (9-5)- edged weaker rivals last running the last 1/4 in 27 seconds. Projected moderate pace does not help his cause.
  • RanchWest
    278
    Vulnerable M/L fav for Sat 1-1-22 at Aqu
    Race 1- Noble Thought (9-5
    Tony Kofalt

    Good call, Tony!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L fav for Sunday 1-2 at Aqu

    Race 3- Phenomenal Woman (2-1)- improved when switched to the dirt last out in a race that looks better than it was. New will attract lots of money. Good bet against at low odds
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L fav update through 1-2-22.
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu for 1-6-2022.

    Race 8- Sweet Lies (2-1)- has not shown much early lick thus far which was against the bias last week. Marginal projected performance figure.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu for 1-8-2022

    Race 8- Lobsta (8-5)- beat his main rival last out in a hard fought stretch run. I see a bounce fir this one
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu for 1-9-2022

    Race 3- Boom Boom Kaboom (3-1)- very consistent maiden that is now 0 for 20. Best to avoid as fav
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu1-13-2022

    Race 2- Shalimar Gardens (1-5)- holds a significant advantage off projected figs but is best to avoid at anything near his M/L odds. We can find value on others in here.
    Race 9- Dr Levy (1-1)- takes a steep class drop for Todd Pletcher. I feel it's a bit fishy after his strong debut only 2 back. Can't take as prohibited favorite
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Tony Kofalt
    Great choices to eliminate Tony! Hope you caught those big prices that won!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L favs at Aqu on 1-14-2022

    Race 5- Entry of Storm Shooter and Deep Cover (1-1)- I didn't rate either part of this entry in my top 3 so we have to look elsewhere at the low odds. This race is part of both the early and late P5. Good luck
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    Thanks William. Sorry a been absent the past week but I had a family tragedy that kept me occupied. I hope to be back in full gear very soon.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Tony Kofalt
    Sorry to hear if your tragedy.
    Of course you need to attend to it.!
  • Steven
    108


    Hey Tony. Sorry to hear about your family. I'm sure all of us wish you strength and healing.
  • RanchWest
    278
    My prayers are with you, Tony.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L fav for Aqu 1-16-2002

    Racr 2- Boss Cara (2-1)- has earned only an average Performance fig today and looks no better than 3rd or 4th best in here. Good opportunity to slant the odds in your favor betting against her
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Hey guys- thanks so much for the prayers and well wishes. My son, while only 31 led an amazing life in the horse business while competing and traveling the world. I was so fortunate to get to spend the last 18 months of his life with on a daily basis. God is good
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Summary through 1-16-2022
    I added a column listing the win prices of winners in those races. In races where we selected a vulnerable fav the average win price of the winning horse was slightly over
    12-1
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (13K)
  • Conley
    298
    Hey guys- thanks so much for the prayers and well wishes. My son, while only 31 led an amazing life in the horse business while competing and traveling the world. I was so fortunate to get to spend the last 18 months of his life with on a daily basis. God is goodTony Kofalt

    Sending you a virtual hug and well wishes to you Tony
    Your son sounds like an amazing human being and good to know that you spent the last few months with him
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 1-20-2022

    Race 2- Prince James (8-5)- falls into a group of 4 that have identical performance figs. Can't take him against others that will offer way more value
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 1-21-2022

    Race 6- Steam Engine (3-1)- seldom headed early but may not be in career form, 1st time Altras scares me but will only inflate the price on others.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 1-22-2022

    Race 1- Laochi (2-1)- One of 4 with competitive figs. She's had her share of opportunities. Avoid at low odds.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav summary through 1-23-2022
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (13K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav 1-27 Aqu

    Race 3- Saratoga Beauty (7-5)- has been claimed in 7 consecutive races but only projects a moderate figure today. I'll pass on her again at low odds after a clear bounce last time.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 1-28-2022

    Race 2- Violent Point (9-5)- form looks eerily similar to stablemate Mi Tres Por Ciento (Race 6) who failed on the drop last out with form trending the wrong way. Good bet against at low odds.
    Race 7- Crypto Cash (7-2)- claimed when he failed on the drop last out by an excellent barn (which should attract tote play). Rail is the place to be right now at Aqu and this one typically finds himself caught wide.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav summary through 1-30-2022
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (13K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 2-3

    Race 5- Stanhope (2-1)- figures to be heavily bet off his last with the hot riding apprentice aboard. But today he feels early pressure and hopefully catches a less biased track.
    Race 6- Total Effort (5-2) - Failed at 8-5 last out in a similar spot. I project 4 others to run just as fast. Pass at low odds.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 2-4-2022

    Race 3- Dealing Justice- (2-1)- figures to be part of a contested pace with Spun D'etat and ranks 4 of 5 on my projected figs. Tough to back her as the fav in this competitive race.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu 2-5

    Race 1- Royal Currency- (4-5)- although finishing 2nd in both career starts she has not earned my top performance fig. I feel that she will be way overbet and is worth taking a stand against.
    Race 4- Illustrious (9-5)- has not won in 3 tries around this level and has the feeling of a money burner. Expect odds closer to even money.
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