• Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 12-11
    Race 2- Just Right (7-2)- I'm projecting this one to regress today by a couple of lengths. Rather weak favorite.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable M/L fav for Aqu 12-12
    Race 4- A Ring Thing (5-2)- a bit dressed up by the class drop but her dirt figs project to be no better than 3rd fastest here. Consider her over bet at any odds near 5-2.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    A's and B's selections for a few Aqu races on 12-12
    Race 3- A's 4,6 B's 7
    Race 4- A's 1,4 B's 3
    Race 5- A's 6.11 B's 2,9
    Race 6- A's 5,9 B's 4
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable M/L fav through 12-12 at Aqu
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable fav 12-16 Aqu

    Race 1- Alita (7-5)- odds too low for a horse whose projected fig is no better than 4 others here.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable M/L favs for Aqu 12-17

    Race 1- Dario's Angel (3-1)- 1 of 5 with very similar projected figs. Can't take low odds under that circumstance.
    Race 4- Shamrocked (2-1)- Can certainly win off his best but I don't expect hid best today. Way over bet
    Race 8- Eloquent Speaker (5-2)- 5 horses in here closely matched. Low percentage trainer off claim. Can't take low odds here
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable fav 12-18 Aqu
    Race 9- Uncle George (7-2)- off the pace turf runner makes his dirt debut. Marginal figures, pass at low odds
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerbale fav 12-19 Aqu

    Race 1- U Should B Dancing- (2-1)- big drop into a maiden claimer but has struggled over the dirt. Expect an extremely low price.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable M/L favs through 12-19 at Aqu
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Let's talk a pulse on how the vulnerable favorites are performing in NY. This study includes all posted on this site vulnerable M/L favorites from 10-21 through 12-19. Here is how the favorites performed.
    Vulnerable favs= 41
    Vulnerable favs that won= 10
    Win percentage= 24.4%

    Total wagered= $82
    Total collected= $61.10
    Avg winner paid= $6.11

    $Net= $1.49

    Does anyone see value in this approach? I would appreciate any comments or feedback. Thanks
  • Jim Parker
    10
    From the data that you have provided the (Vulnerable Favorites) performances at the NY tracks are definitely not to be played, good job on figuring out who is vulnerable and who isn't.
  • William Zayonce
    40
    Tony Kofalt
    [Does anyone see value in this approach? I would appreciate any comments or feedback. Thanks "
    While there's always value in identifying low valued horses that are vulnerable , I see more value in finding which of the top 3 are vulnerable. Also, its as important to find strong "play on " contenders as it is to find "play against" entrants.
  • William Zayonce
    40
    I'm also curious as to how often the ML favorite is actually the post time favorite. Some linemakers are better than others.
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Tony looking at your excel I would think you have a great eye for choosing vulnerable ml favorites. Your excel shows 88% of your tosses are below 4-1 final odds. The linemaker in NY is pretty good at his job. I think you are pretty wired in here at NYRA which is probably why you are making your living here. Even more impressive is from the look of it your doing it without a database. Continued good luck or good skill !
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Here are my statistics from 2015 through 2021 November. Tracks followed Aqu,Bel,CD,Dmr, FG, GG, GP,Haw,Kee,Lad,Lrl,Mth,OP,Pim,Parx,Sa,Tam and Wo. First set of columns shows percentage that win. Here I'm looking for under 25%. Second set of columns show how many plays. In the process of breaking it out by track so taking excel course:grin: Again this is really only the starting point. Still need to find the winner.
    Attachment
    NG ML Spots (14K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    393


    How true Ken. Playing against a vulnerable fav tilts the odds in your favor but you still need to make winning plays. The reason I use M/L fav is that I play primarily horizontal wagers so 70% of the races I play I have only the M/L, instead of actual odds, as a guide to the fav.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Does anyone see value in this approach? I would appreciate any comments or feedback. ThanksTony Kofalt

    Sure. What's the win percentage of favorites there? 39%? At 24.4%, you have a huge advantage. That's better than the enormous takeout. And, if you can hit from what's left, you'll get a price. I hope to follow this thread a bit more closely because I've been trying something a little different this week.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable fav 12-30 Aqu
    Race 3- Emperor's Cause (9-5)- VERY competitive group based on projected figs. Emperor figures to run well but I can't take a low price on him. Look for value elsewhere.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Race 3- Emperor's Cause (9-5)-Tony Kofalt

    I see Quickflash and Top of the Mint as being competitive, but Emperor's Cause is also strong in this group.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Hey Ranch- that's kind of the way I see the race. I figured that the track would favor speed being a little wet. But I really like Dylan Davis as he is finishing races very well. It just seemed like a good spot to try to beat a low odds horse.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393

    Ranch- In race 6 today at Aqu I'm keying Straight Skinny in my wagers. How do you rate his chances? I feel that his form was dirtied up lately facing some modest foes today.
  • RanchWest
    503
    I have Straight Skinny as a Brohammer contender, but most horses are. Otherwise, I have him as my lowest rated horse. I have 9 other factors. Straight Skinny is 4th in two factors and 6th or below in all other factors. I am sure you have a different approach than I do, but I would not consider this horse a single.

    I have 5 2 1 7.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393

    Appreciate the feedback, I projected him as the fastest horse today. At the price, I decided to single him in horizontals.
    Once again thanks for your thoughts. You are really plugged into this business.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Sheesh, I see Emporer's Cause was eased. Anything Pazible was my 4th pick, but I consider my top 4 to usually be contenders for the win spot. Paid $33.20. Wow.
  • RanchWest
    503
    I've been following FG and PRX and on those my top 4 contenders have won 77% of races (all races... all, as in including 2 yo maiden claiming turf routes and all).
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    That's impressive Ranch. I spent a lot of time at Parx through the years. I wouldn't mind playing Parx but I really can't add another track. I'm comfortable with the time I invest in NY. Another track would canabalize my preparation there.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Well, you obviously know NY better than I do. My suggestions today have sucked. lol
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Vulnerable M/L fav at Aqu 12-31
    Race 4- Infringement (5-2)- Lowest level yet but is having a miserable 3yo year. I have little confidence in her dirt form.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Tony, I don't know if I am helping or not, but I have 4AQU as 6 7 1 9. I know, chalky.
  • Jim Pommier
    49
    Ultimate Odds Line AQU R4: #7 didn't make the top 5.
    #6 (ML 3-1 / UOL 2.5-1)
    #1 (6 / 3.5)
    #9 (6 / 6)
    #4 (15 / 8)
    #5 (5 / 8)
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