It does help! Would you say that choosing which lines to use depends on certain measureable factors OR , on your basic "philosophy" of handicapping?Tony Kofalt
My hypothetical plays here would be 4 and 2.Tony Kofalt
62
Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
I really like the 10 in the eighth as spot play≡⋮
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Today's Vulnerable Favorites
William Zayonce
5
Tony Kofalt
It does help! Would you say that choosing which lines to use depends on certain measureable factors OR , on your basic "philosophy" of handicapping?
12dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
↪William Zayonce
I think that choosing the lines is based on my philosophy of handicapping BUT measurable factors weaned from those lines (F1, EP, FT etc) can be used to compare the competition. One of Dave's original products, ThoroBrain, did a great job of resolving the horse to horse comparisons.
11dOptions
William Zayonce
5
@Tony Kofalt
This seems a useful and logical methodology . Its similar, in some respects, to my own preferred methods. One more item of curiosity..Do you differentiate between the "entry conditions" of the various races when choosing which horizontals to play? Are there some categories that you find more difficult and consequently leave you with a lower success rate? For example, my weakest area lies in the races whose entry requirements involve LACK of success under minimal conditions. Thus , maidens, NW2 ,Nw6mo or Nonwinners of a bologna sandwich in the past year are all races that I play sparingly.
11dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
11dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
↪William Zayonce
LMAO- I do differentiate between 'entry conditions'. I am weakest at open claiming races, especially those near the top claiming tags. I don't mind entry level Allowance conditions but have more trouble in the 2 or 3 other thans.
I prefer bottom level beaten races and NW2 and 3 lifers. I also don't hesitate to play maiden races.
11dOptions
William Zayonce
5
Tony Kofalt
62
Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
My hypothetical plays here would be 4 and 2.
11dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Vulnerable fav updates through 11/21/21
Attachment
Vulnerable favs(12K)
10dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Vulnerable favorite 11-26 Aqu
Race 10- Montauk Daddy (7-2)- an abundance of speed figures to hamper Montauk in this event. His performance figs are only average. Expect him to be over bet as he's been favored in 5 of his last 6 starts. Turf only
7dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Vulnerable M/L fav 11-28 Aqu
Race 2- Kissing Frogs (5-2)- best races have been run in Fla. Projected figs don't match up
4dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Vulnerable fav update through week ending 11-28.
Attachment
Vulnerable favs(12K)
3dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Vulnerable favs for Aqu 12-2
Race 5- Buckortwo (5-2)- has improved his early position in each start which is a good sign. But he's yet to finish it off. Figures to be over bet in a competitive field
Race 8- Advise and Consent (5-2)- 3yo has room to improve but faces a tough bunch. Well support Ortiz/Brown combo insures heavy betting
1dOptions
Tony Kofalt
79
Now that the 5th race favorite scratched let's see if we can play around the projected 8th race favorite in the late P4.
6th race P4
50 cent- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 26= $16
$1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2,6= $16
$1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,8 with 2,6= $16
$1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2= $16
$1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,8 with 2,6= $8
$1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2= $8
$1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,8 with 2= $8
Good luck
4hOptions
RanchWest
24
Tony, I see 8-10-2-4 as the most likely to beat the 5 in R8.
Thus far the vulnerable favs have won at a 27% win clip at a $net 0f $1.51. — Tony Kofalt
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