• William Zayonce
    22
    Tony Kofalt
    It does help! Would you say that choosing which lines to use depends on certain measureable factors OR , on your basic "philosophy" of handicapping?
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    I think that choosing the lines is based on my philosophy of handicapping BUT measurable factors weaned from those lines (F1, EP, FT etc) can be used to compare the competition. One of Dave's original products, ThoroBrain, did a great job of resolving the horse to horse comparisons.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    @Tony Kofalt
    This seems a useful and logical methodology . Its similar, in some respects, to my own preferred methods. One more item of curiosity..Do you differentiate between the "entry conditions" of the various races when choosing which horizontals to play? Are there some categories that you find more difficult and consequently leave you with a lower success rate? For example, my weakest area lies in the races whose entry requirements involve LACK of success under minimal conditions. Thus , maidens, NW2 ,Nw6mo or Nonwinners of a bologna sandwich in the past year are all races that I play sparingly.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
    Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    LMAO- I do differentiate between 'entry conditions'. I am weakest at open claiming races, especially those near the top claiming tags. I don't mind entry level Allowance conditions but have more trouble in the 2 or 3 other thans.
    I prefer bottom level beaten races and NW2 and 3 lifers. I also don't hesitate to play maiden races.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Tony Kofalt
    62
    Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
    Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
    My hypothetical plays here would be 4 and 2.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav updates through 11/21/21
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable favorite 11-26 Aqu
    Race 10- Montauk Daddy (7-2)- an abundance of speed figures to hamper Montauk in this event. His performance figs are only average. Expect him to be over bet as he's been favored in 5 of his last 6 starts. Turf only
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L fav 11-28 Aqu

    Race 2- Kissing Frogs (5-2)- best races have been run in Fla. Projected figs don't match up
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav update through week ending 11-28.
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable favs for Aqu 12-2

    Race 5- Buckortwo (5-2)- has improved his early position in each start which is a good sign. But he's yet to finish it off. Figures to be over bet in a competitive field
    Race 8- Advise and Consent (5-2)- 3yo has room to improve but faces a tough bunch. Well support Ortiz/Brown combo insures heavy betting
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Now that the 5th race favorite scratched let's see if we can play around the projected 8th race favorite in the late P4.
    6th race P4
    50 cent- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 26= $16
    $1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2,6= $16
    $1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,8 with 2,6= $16
    $1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2= $16
    $1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,8 with 2,6= $8
    $1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2= $8
    $1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,8 with 2= $8

    Good luck
  • RanchWest
    278
    Tony, I see 8-10-2-4 as the most likely to beat the 5 in R8.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    ≡⋮
    HEADQUARTERS QUICK START STORE CONTACT US
    Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    William Zayonce
    5
    Tony Kofalt
    It does help! Would you say that choosing which lines to use depends on certain measureable factors OR , on your basic "philosophy" of handicapping?
    12dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    ↪William Zayonce

    I think that choosing the lines is based on my philosophy of handicapping BUT measurable factors weaned from those lines (F1, EP, FT etc) can be used to compare the competition. One of Dave's original products, ThoroBrain, did a great job of resolving the horse to horse comparisons.
    11dOptions
    William Zayonce
    5
    @Tony Kofalt
    This seems a useful and logical methodology . Its similar, in some respects, to my own preferred methods. One more item of curiosity..Do you differentiate between the "entry conditions" of the various races when choosing which horizontals to play? Are there some categories that you find more difficult and consequently leave you with a lower success rate? For example, my weakest area lies in the races whose entry requirements involve LACK of success under minimal conditions. Thus , maidens, NW2 ,Nw6mo or Nonwinners of a bologna sandwich in the past year are all races that I play sparingly.
    11dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
    Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
    11dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    ↪William Zayonce

    LMAO- I do differentiate between 'entry conditions'. I am weakest at open claiming races, especially those near the top claiming tags. I don't mind entry level Allowance conditions but have more trouble in the 2 or 3 other thans.
    I prefer bottom level beaten races and NW2 and 3 lifers. I also don't hesitate to play maiden races.
    11dOptions
    William Zayonce
    5
    Tony Kofalt
    62
    Vulnerable favs for AQU 11-21
    Race 7- Stolen Holiday (7-2)- this one simply isn't a good fit based on my projected figs.
    My hypothetical plays here would be 4 and 2.
    11dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Vulnerable fav updates through 11/21/21
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs(12K)
    10dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Vulnerable favorite 11-26 Aqu
    Race 10- Montauk Daddy (7-2)- an abundance of speed figures to hamper Montauk in this event. His performance figs are only average. Expect him to be over bet as he's been favored in 5 of his last 6 starts. Turf only
    7dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Vulnerable M/L fav 11-28 Aqu

    Race 2- Kissing Frogs (5-2)- best races have been run in Fla. Projected figs don't match up
    4dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Vulnerable fav update through week ending 11-28.
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs(12K)
    3dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Vulnerable favs for Aqu 12-2

    Race 5- Buckortwo (5-2)- has improved his early position in each start which is a good sign. But he's yet to finish it off. Figures to be over bet in a competitive field
    Race 8- Advise and Consent (5-2)- 3yo has room to improve but faces a tough bunch. Well support Ortiz/Brown combo insures heavy betting
    1dOptions
    Tony Kofalt
    79
    Now that the 5th race favorite scratched let's see if we can play around the projected 8th race favorite in the late P4.
    6th race P4
    50 cent- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 26= $16
    $1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2,6= $16
    $1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,8 with 2,6= $16
    $1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2= $16
    $1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,8 with 2,6= $8
    $1- 7 with 6,11 with 5,7,8,9 with 2= $8
    $1- 7 with 2,6,8,11 with 5,8 with 2= $8

    Good luck
    4hOptions
    RanchWest
    24
    Tony, I see 8-10-2-4 as the most likely to beat the 5 in R8.
    I really like the 10 in the eighth as spot play
  • RanchWest
    278
    Tony, I see 8-10-2-4 as the most likely to beat the 5 in R8.RanchWest

    They finished 2 4 6 8, the 5 was 5th with the 10 in 6th. Looks like you spotted the pretender.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    vulnerable M/L favs Aqu 12-3

    Race 1- Mozay (9-5)- low M/L and only competitive projected figs. Worth playing against
    Race 4- Heels Together (5-2)- long absence. Has to improve a bunch. Over bet
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Up against the clock today. Here are my A and B contenders in races 2-5 at Aqu P4
    Race 2- A's- 6 B's 1,7
    Race 3- A's 5,7 B's 2,6
    Race 4- A's 1,4 B's 6
    race 5- A's 3-4 B's 10-11
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    M/L oddsmaker and I agreed too often on the Saturday card at Aqu, therefor no vulnerable on 12-3.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Mistake in last post. No vulnerable favs for Saturday 12-4
  • Steven
    108
    I don't want to derail this particular thread, but I have a question.

    Since I've never looked at this approach, Finding Vulnerable Favorites, do you just look at the weaknesses (or characteristics of the ML favorite) or do also look at the strengths of other horses (say like the ML second and third favorites)?

    And does (or would or could) Dave's "Vulnerable Favorites" workshop come into play?

    Okay, you got me, TWO questions!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable M/L favs for Sunday 12-5 Aqu
    Race 1- Spun for Lu Lu (7-2)- lost too many at this level, can't stay with Live in Five
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    Hi Steven- this topic was started to present an alternative way to look at the races. I play primarily horizontal exotics where the public overplays morning line favorites in the second/third/and fourth legs of these wagers. If a M/L fav can be eliminated from your ticket it helps reduce the cost of your wager and increases value when you win. Many of the vulnerable favs run well as they have good form but my goal is to find favs that underperform the average favorites.
    Identifying these vulnerable favs can stem from:
    1) a perceived 'crack' in their form
    2) a race where I don't see the fav having an edge over one or more contenders
    3) a single contender that looks superior to the M/L fav
    Please don't hesitate to ask if I didn't answer your question
  • RanchWest
    278
    Thanks, Tony.

    Good call on 1AQU. I liked the 3, but ran 2nd.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable favs through 12-5
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)
  • RanchWest
    278
    Well done, Tony.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    That was a good selection Ranch. My results for vulnerable favs in this small sample have been ok but not spectacular thus far. Remember our goal is to nudge the chances of winning our way by eliminating some of the pool. Thus far the vulnerable favs have won at a 27% win clip at a $net 0f $1.51.
  • RanchWest
    278
    Thus far the vulnerable favs have won at a 27% win clip at a $net 0f $1.51.Tony Kofalt

    That's still way less than favs usually win at, so I know you want to do better, but don't sell yourself short. Just one beaten favorite can sometimes bump the payout on a horizontal way up. Keep up the good work!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav for Thursday 12-9 at Aqu
    Race 4- Ashaar (9-5)- Despite the huge class drop Ashaar feels like he's trending in the wrong direction. Plenty of early speed in here which compromises his chances.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Think the favorite in race 3 ( #8 Baba) is vulnerable for the same reasons.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 12-10

    Race 4- Sixteen Tons (5-2)- won 2 straight on the lead. May find todays pace quicker than he prefers
bold
italic
underline
strike
code
quote
ulist
image
url
mention
reveal
youtube
tweet
Add a Comment