• Tony Kofalt
    284
    Race 2- Scuttlebuz finds himself in a heat where I project 4 other rivals can run just as quickly. He's also attempting the next rung on the class ladder. Tough to take at the price.
    Race 6- If ML fav King James is bet, he won't find his way to any of my tickets. I project at least 4 others to run just as fast. He will also have to overcome a wide trip through the turn.
    Race 8- 9/5 Tamahere may be compromised early breaking from the outside post on the bend. Several in here figure to post figs that match or exceed her projections. She can win but I feel she will be badly overbet
  • Ken Fee
    22
    10/22/21 8 of 10 Vulnerable ML Fav did not win

    Caveat- all pre-scratch.

    Vulnerable ML Favorites

    Bel Race 2 - #3 Boldish
    Race 4 - #3 Ernie Banker
    Race 6 - #12 King James
    GP Race 6 - #8 World Gone Wild
    Haw Race 2 - #4 Dreaming of Paris
    Race 4 - #1 Bramble Queen
    Kee Race 4 - #3 Emilia's Moon
    Race 7- #1 Soup and Sandwich
    Race 8 - #4 Big Agenda
    Lrl Race 1 - #7 B Determined
    Race 10 - #9 Jaxon Traveler
    Med Race 1 - #8 Ghost Beauty
    Wo Race 8 - #10 Five Days in May
  • Jim Pommier
    25
    KEE Early PK4-- Tossing out the R3 ML favorite #2 Quick Return. NY bred moves to open company. Won state-bred allowance last race at BEL. Why the move to KEE, and possibly lose a check earner for $30K? Doesn't make sense. R2 #9 Omaha Red (8-1) looks well placed here. Well bet in his first start. Both the 1st and 2nd place finishers won their next starts, and adds blinkers today. The ML favorite #6 Top Gun Girl will be very tough here, Filly vs colts, but couldn't toss even though I like others including the #9 to upset.
    R2-- #6/9/10/11/12 -- R3-- #5/6 -- R4-- #2/3/6 -- R5-- #1/5/7/10.
  • Jim Pommier
    25
    BEL Early PK4-- Tossing out the R2 ML favorites #1/1A Scuttlebuzz and Bourbon Mission. The #1 looks like the stronger part of the entry. State-bred moving to open company allowance. Won last, but will be tough to repeat against these. R5 #9 Miracle Nicky (12-1) disappointed last out at SAR (poor start). Nice breeding. Irad stays on board. Good workout pattern since last start with a couple of bullets. All good signs-- upset.
    R2-- #2/4/5/7 -- R3-- #1/5/8 -- R4-- #3/5/8/10 -- R5-- #3/4/9/12.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284
    Here are the ML favs I will leave off my tickets at Belmont on 10-24
    Race 5- Advise and Consent- will be overbet in Chad Brown barn. He's a contender but not at the price.
    Race 6- Digital Software- despite not being the ML favorite he will be vastly overbet. Even money or less in last 4 starts.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284
    After scratches I'm adding a beatable ML fav on 10-24
    Race 1- Ballot Initiative- expect a very low price, less than even money. 3 others match up well on figures.
  • Ken Fee
    22
    Bel
    Race 6 - #3 Tulfarris
    Race 8 - #8 Command Point
    Race 9 - #2 Shamrocket
  • Jim Pommier
    25
    Follow-up from 23OCT2021. KEE Early PK4-- Tossing out the R3 ML favorite #2 Quick Return. BEL Early PK4-- Tossing out the R2 ML favorites #1/1A Scuttlebuzz and Bourbon Mission. Tossed the right ML favorites, but awful handicapping in the other legs. Noticed that Tony also tossed the BEL R2 #1 Scuttlebuzz. Seems a good sign when another handicapper agrees. Going to look a little more at this vulnerable ML favorite angle. Just need to do a much better job in the other legs.
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    @Jim Pommier,@Ken Fee,@Tony Kofalt

    Do you guys have a summary of how your Vulnerable Favorites are doing in terms of $net and hit rate?
  • Jim Pommier
    25
    No. Just starting to look at this. I'm a part-time handicapper. Busy the next 10 days. My next handicapping day(s) is probably going to be Breeders' Cup Friday/Saturday. Maybe squeeze in a day between now and then.
  • Ken Fee
    22
    Each Different Spot play looks at different factors that make that favorite vulnerable. The date range is from Jan 1 through 10/23/21( haven't processed yesterday). Sorry no roi
    Attachment
    Upload Vulnerable favorites (11K)
  • Ken Fee
    22
    I also break it down by Track.
  • Ken Fee
    22
    Also only look at: Aqu,Bel,CD,Del, Dmr.,FG,GG,GP,Haw,Kee LAD,Lrl,MTH OP,Pha,Pim,SA,Sar,Tam,TP.Wo.
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    No. Just starting to look at this. I'm a part-time handicapper. Busy the next 10 days. My next handicapping day(s) is probably going to be Breeders' Cup Friday/Saturday. Maybe squeeze in a day between now and then.Jim Pommier

    A word of warning.
    I would not expect the big race days to support the same models as the rest of the year. Those days are atypical of normal racing at every track.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284

    Wow Ken, that's an amazing number of tracks to maintain. Thanks so much for your research!!! Has me thinking
  • Tony Kofalt
    284

    I'm embarrassed to say that I have never tracked vulnerable favs like that. The results this weekend seem typical but I do not have history to compare them to. I will begin to post these vulnerable favs and track them.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284
    I have attached a spreadsheet listing the vulnerable favs. Please let me know if any additional information should be tracked with each horse. All horses were M/L favs except Digital Software who I felt would go off the fav.
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (11K)
  • Dave Schwartz
    202


    Thanks.
    I looked at it. 22% wins and $1.56 $net.
    A far cry from the typical $1,78 or so that is normal for horses like this.
  • Ken Fee
    22
    For October MY Vulnerable Favorites win


    Tapeta-Sprint 26 110 23.64%
    Tapeta- Route 30 155 19.35%
    Turf-Sprint 25 120 20.83%
    Turf-Route 63 292 21.58%
    Dirt-Sprint 62 258 24.03%
    Dirt-Route 54 231 23.38%
    Wet-Sprint 3 51 5.88%
    Wet-Route 10 17 58.82%
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