Changes for selections 10/16

R3: 10-15-12-1

R5: 7-4-3-1

R10: 13-12-10-6

Results from 10 races today (10/16)

R1: $4.60 + $8.00 EXA
R2: no hits
R3: $7.20 + $17.80 EXA $42.80 TRI $25.39 SUP
R4: $4.80 + $8.30 EXA
R5: $30.00
R6: $12.20 + $34.00 EXA $44.95 TRI
R7: $8.20 + $15.40 EXA
R8: no hits (sadly)
R9: $3.80 + $4.70 EXA $11.30 TRI
R10: no hits

Selections Fall Season
Winners on Top: 23/69 (33.3%) Bet: $138.00 Returned: $180.20 Profit/Loss: +42.20
Winners Top 2: 31/69 (44.9%) Bet: $276.00 Returned: $281.20 Profit/Loss: +5.20
Winners Top 3: 42/69 (60.8%) Bet: $414.00 Returned: $489.20 Profit/Loss: +75.20
Winners Top 4: 51/69 (73.9%) Bet: $552.00 Returned: $556.20 Profit/Loss: +4.20

Exotics Top 4 Season
Exactas: Bet: $828.00 Returned: $934.30 Profit/Loss: +106.30
Trifectas: Bet: $816.00 Returned: $553.55 Profit/Loss: -262.45
Superfectas: Bet: $151.20 Returned: $122.36 Profit/Loss: -28.84

Today's System Selections for 10/17/2021 KEENELAND

Note: If you are using my sheets please make sure to update the Top 4 for scratches so you have 4 horses in every race to use for exotics or multi-leg wagers!

Good luck!

Changes for selections 10/17

R3: 5-8-1-2

R6: 6-2-7-9

R9: 10-7-4-9

Results from 9 races today (10/17)

R1: $3.80 + $9.20 EXA
R2: no hits
R3: $2.60
R4: $24.00 + $55.40 EXA
R5: $6.60
R6: no hits
R7: $4.80
R8: $7.80 + $21.90 EXA
R9: $31.60

Selections Fall Season
Winners on Top: 27/78 (34.6%) Bet: $156.00 Returned: $217.20 Profit/Loss: +61.20
Winners Top 2: 35/78 (44.8%)
Winners Top 3: 48/78 (61.5%)
Winners Top 4: 58/78 (74.3%)

Ending off my Keeneland Fall Selections a bit early as I will be very busy these next few weeks with working and other things so I won't have time to handicap the rest of the meet

Final Stats for the 2021 Keeneland Fall Season
Winners on Top: 27/78 (34.6%) Bet: $156.00 Returned: $217.20 Profit/Loss: +61.20
Winners Top 2: 35/78 (44.8%)
Winners Top 3: 48/78 (61.5%)
Winners Top 4: 58/78 (74.3%)

I once showed a 0% ROI for Keeneland over a meet. I looked at it as, "Well, At least I didn't lose anything!".

I used to have two unbeatable tracks - KEE & HAW. About 6 years ago I started to win at HAW, but KEE still alludes me. (So I don't play.)

My numbers are just whacky there.

Quick question about ROI

So is my ROI for my top picks 1.39 or 39%? Is that how that works?

I would look at it as +39%. A negative value would indicate a loss (to me). I think others may look at it differently such as return on a $2 investment, anything under $2 would be a loss.

I would look at it as +39%. A negative value would indicate a loss (to me). I think others may look at it differently such as return on a $2 investment, anything under $2 would be a loss. — Steven

Ok and is that a good or bad ROI? I am guessing positive is always better than negative right?

Yes, that would be considered very good. LOL

If one could keep it up for say... forever... it could easily be a living - especially considering the high hit rate.

Dave, jump in here if you think I'm telling a story, but...

Even a consistent 3.9% ROI could mean significant money over time.

Do whales even average 3.9%?

The goal for a whale is MINUS 3.0 to 3.5, then make it up on rebates.
Ultimately, their target is a net of 7% or more. (Exotics have much higher rebates.)


Think of it this way...
Let's say that you are a PROFITABLE PLAYER and you expect to make $80,000 per year.
Divide $80k by 3.5% and you'd have to wager $2.2m.

At 6% = $1.3m

So, I'd say the single player who is not going to make 40 bets per day, is going to have a difficult time with making big time dollars without getting upwards of 10% or higher.

A well-known author is quoted as saying that anyone who says they're making more than +3% is a liar, is simply wrong. I know at least a dozen guys who get over 10% and a couple who go over 20%.

$2,200,000…. That’s a lot to run through the window. I don’t think I had really thought of it like that.

Good point and a really good, reality eye opener.

Way to go Conley!

Yes, that would be considered very good. LOL

If one could keep it up for say... forever... it could easily be a living - especially considering the high hit rate. — Dave Schwartz

Ok I was just wondering but that's good if that is a respectable ROI

Thank you Steven!