• Deleted User
    0
    Just watched your par video Dave, Great stuff, question I have doing my own pars and trying to live up to a great standard. Can I ask how you came up with your Class Table #... doing it manually as opposed to parsing is much work but gratifying... unless I guess I could find a good parsing tool. I was just curious how you arrive at your rating for each class level. Secondly, I realize that you do not do things for free, I was curious how much would you charge me create a daily racing form past performance template from the daily racing form and a brisnet pp template. It is for my own recreation ..just

    Chuck (remember I am the guy struggling not working) ... P.S.When do you plan on releasing your new software
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    Can I ask how you came up with your Class Table #Charles Lucas
    Good class numbers come from good par times.
    Good par times come from good class numbers.
    They work together.

    I have my own very sophisticated software to do this. While it is somewhat automated, every track-surface-distance is hand-crafted. (Yes, it is a joy to do.)

    Stabilizing Pars and Classes
    1. For class levels, I grab a year of races at one track across all distances. (But only dirt races.)

    2. I have the software create all the pars based upon the most recent levels.
    It does this in about 20 seconds.

    3. Then I lock in the pars.
    (This is not the final job; just temporary.

    4. Then, using these pars, I have it assign levels to all the classes.
    (Again, this is not the final job; just temporary.

    5. There is an indicator of the change in $10k claimers. (Or some other class that is closest to $10k.)

    I note the amount of the change.
    What I want is for that error to be shrinking.
    If it gets larger, there is a problem either in some classes or some pars that must be corrected before making good levels or good pars.



    I repeat steps 2 thru 5 until the number stops changing.

    Making the final Class Levels
    1. I look at the classes and see where they are out of whack.
    Each type of race is done by itself.

    2. Always begin with the most common class type.
    Place them and lock them in.
    Make the others fit in.
    Imagine you have a solid $18k level of 103.8 and a $12k level of 101.9.
    You've got a $15k with only one race that indicates it ran like $22k.

    Don't agonize.
    Just put it between 101.9 and 103.8.
    Averagae = 102.85.

    3. Do this for all types and all levels.

    4. Don't bother with OCs or Starters. They are just too volatile from year to year and race to race.

    5. After all the class levels are set, look at the $10k claimer.
    Adjust it by as much as necessary (up or down) to make it a "100.00."

    6. Adjust all the other classes by the same amount.


    Next, you build the actual par times.
    1. Again, start with the most commonly run sprint distances.
    Here's the real challenge for you.

    It may take you 3 or 4 seasons to get your classes right, so just start with the class types you have confidence in. Logically, claiming races for older males.

    (On that topic, females are an adjustment. Don't try to make specific pars for them. You'll find they're all over the place.)

    Make your pars by taking all the races that fit (i.e. clm, older males, fast tracks).

    2. Weight each race based upon where the winner first challenged for the lead.
    Currently, I use this weighting system:
    • 9 for 1st call
    • 5 for 2nd call
    • 2 for stretch call
    • 1 for finish

    Races that run late are just naturally going to be slower. Way slower sometimes.

    Build a par for all the sprints that you have enough races to assess.

    3. Determine the Track's "Pattern."
    Quirin had a nice table in his book where he outline how tracks we typified by A-B-C, etc. with each letter representing a pattern.

    It's up to you to decide what pattern should be used for sprints and routes at each track.

    You do this once you have at least 2 sprint distances.

    4. After you have those, fill in the others in the order of how many races or where they fit.

    Make sure they match the pattern.

    5. Follow the same process for routes.

    THAT'S IT.

    If this seems like too much, just buy my pars. :)
    (They come with several different CSV formats.)

    2023 HorseStreet Par Times
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    Secondly, I realize that you do not do things for free, I was curious how much would you charge me create a daily racing form past performance template from the daily racing form and a brisnet pp template. It is for my own recreation ..just

    Chuck (remember I am the guy struggling not working) ... P.S.When do you plan on releasing your new software

    I get a few requests like that every year.
    You just have no idea the magnitude of effort involved.

    Not so long ago I fellow wrote to me asking the same question, offering me $500.

    Even adding a zero to that is not enough to make it worth my effort.
  • Deleted User
    0
    ya i figured as much... might as well start to learn how to code,,,
  • Deleted User
    0
    p.s. thanks for answering... ya considering buying.. but truth is as nuts as it seems i get enjoyment from doing the work
  • Deleted User
    0
    Also.. I accidentally deleted your videos on the HSH... would it be ok to attach so I could continue watching again..
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