• Biniak
    54
    Tony,

    Since you have and are comfortable with Excel that's what I would use for you.

    Also, I second Ranch's recommendation on SDiU. The movie will increase your faith! It starts slow but really builds to a fantastic finish.
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    Also, I second Ranch's recommendation on SDiU. The movie will increase your faith! It starts slow but really builds to a fantastic finish.Biniak

    And it really is a great handicapping approach.
    Just sayin'. LOL
  • Biniak
    54
    Not sure I follow "And it really is a great handicapping approach" unless you mean S.F.T. but I am halfway through "How to Measure Anything" and I am still learning stuff. It's deep thinking?
  • RanchWest
    423
    I think I am already thinking about as deeply about horse racing as I can handle. :) But I keep digging and usually moving forward.
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    Not sure I follow "And it really is a great handicapping approach" unless you mean S.F.T. but I am halfway through "How to Measure Anything" and I am still learning stuff. It's deep thinking?Biniak

    I started to say, "Go buy the product" but then remembered that it isn't available any more.

    Dang.

    The story was that I was struggling to win. I was still winning (as I recall_) but this long-time client and professional player) calls me and says, "I see how hard it is for you and I want to help."

    We did 7 sessions over (I think) 6 weeks or so and it was eye opening.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Movie was very enjoyable!!! thanks all for the recommendation. Loved it.
  • Tim Yatcak
    7
    Via HSH my entire appraoch to wagering changed FOR THE BETTER even though I am still learning 6 years into the experince
  • Tom
    71
    My favorite Dave products, his pars and Figuring Out What Wins.
    Been using his pars since Tom Brohamer recommended them at a Sartin seminar in Baltimore.
  • Ray Wallin
    16
    For me it was P&P that blew my mind... but I use the pars almost daily.

    I am hoping that soon I will be saying it is HSH as I learn to use the product!

    @Biniak I read "How to Measure Anything" a few years back it is amazing what I have been able to do at work with it in terms of creating and developing KPIs and other metrics... and it has been helpful with the ponies too!
  • Biniak
    54
    Ray,

    How have you applied "HTMA" for the horses?
  • Ray Wallin
    16


    I used the logic (even before I had read the book) to break down certain aspects of handicapping a race, but will admit the book made me think about it more and even more finite aspects.

    An example of how I did this was in how I assess favorites. I wanted to come up with a strategy of when to back or go against a favorite, which I termed strong and false favorites. I broke down the aspects of a horse I was using to gauge this assessment on... recency, win percentage, class, experience at or within 1/2 a furlong of the distance to see how each of these factors related to each favorite in my homemade-manually entered excel database.

    "But wait, there's more!"

    While I found modest success with strong/false (and further breaking false into false with no qualifiers, false with a qualifier - a qualifier being a horse in the field that met the metrics of a strong favorite, but wasn't the favorite). I wanted to make the criteria better... so I started to look at other aspects of the field, not just the favorite and developed a favorite likelihood factor (FLF). I ran other metrics of the field against my favorites (type of race, field size, jock, etc. - 7 in total). I found a fairly linear relation between win percentage and FLF in all categories - strong, false no qual, false with qual.

    I again tweaked the process and established two other levels of "super favorites" using the same drill down and adding other factors.

    Sadly, the file I had used to develop the impact values of all of those factors was on the hard drive of a laptop that died (I have since learned my lesson on backing up information), but assessing the favorite and FLF is the first thing on my "handicapping checklist".

    I have used HTMA as well to break down other angles/approaches I have used, which really isn't too different that how HSH builds objects out of factors.
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