• Biniak
    54
    Hello, I'd like to say 'Hi' and ask recommendations on your favorite DS product ever?
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    My favorite DS product dates back to the early 1990's and was known as ThoroBrain. It was a neural network that I truly loved. TB is no longer longer available as Dave's product lineup evolved since that time.
    In the current offerings I enjoyed reading the 'Opponent Method', specifically the parts regarding session betting. This money management approach has really made a difference in my bottom line.
    That being said, I have purchased nearly all of Dave's offerings and have enjoyed them. There is something to be learned in every product. I've tweaked my approach after reading them all.
  • Biniak
    54
    Tony,

    Thanks for your response. When I asked the question, I had you specifically in mind because I listened twice to your podcast with Dave and you mentioned purchasing most of his offerings.

    BTW I am an east coaster like yourself although my local tracks are LRL and PIM but I like reading your short comments on the AQU Vulnerable Favorite List. I usually learn something.

    What made ThoroBrain so special? Was it because it was a neural network? I thought on the podcast you said you were a "paper and pencil" handicapper. I am assuming you do not use Dave's HSH software. Thanks again!
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Hey Biniak,
    Some good questions. I live in Pa and love the Md circuit. I follow the result charts but prefer betting on NY.
    I am a paper and pencil handicapper but I've owned all of Dave's software offerings including HSH. HSH is powerful but to me also extremely time consuming. I do try to project a horses performance in numerical terms. That includes paceline selection with the ability to 'adjust' based on factors such as age, etc. I was never able to execute this to my satisfaction in HSH.
    ThoroBrain simply worked for me. I found it easy to select pacelines and make adjustments. It was friendly to my 'eye'. TB would then run factors from the current race against a file of races you selected as a model. I am certainly no expert regarding the inner workings of the neural network but the results were consistently strong. Strong enough for me to consider handicapping full time. But I had a young, amazing family to care for and handicapping full time seemed too risky.
    If I missed anything please let me know
  • Biniak
    54
    I am a little surprised that you follow MD racing charts and don't play LRL Late Pick 5 (12% takeout) and NO I am not a track spokesperson but as an investor and businessman, taxes suck.

    I can identify with the "amazing family" line; I have a 30 y/o son and 25 y/o daughter with tremendous futures ahead of them. Such a Blessing!

    I stumbled on a Thanksgiving 2012(?) episode of Dave's "How to Improve your Game", yesterday. It was 90 minutes of handicapping wisdom with only an occasional DS commercial (you know how he is). One of the concepts that wowed me was the 90% Confidence Interval for speed figures (or any metric). Are you familiar with it or use it? Is it still viable 10 years later? If it is I will try to validate it on my program later today. No matter how good an idea seems on the surface I ALWAYS have to test it myself.

    BTW If you want me to streamline your paper and pencil approach, I would be willing to do it pro bono. One of my many "hats" is programming. It would be a learning experience for me and I've handicapping since Spectacular Bid was trying to make it three straight Triple Crowns. Back then I thought it was no problem winning all three. Good Luck today!
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    I stumbled on a Thanksgiving 2012(?) episode of Dave's "How to Improve your Game", yesterday. It was 90 minutes of handicapping wisdom with only an occasional DS commercial (you know how he is). One of the concepts that wowed me was the 90% Confidence Interval for speed figures (or any metric). Are you familiar with it or use it? Is it still viable 10 years later? If it is I will try to validate it on my program later today. No matter how good an idea seems on the surface I ALWAYS have to test it myself.Biniak

    I'm just finishing the 2022 HorseStreet Par Times.

    The 90% CI is a critical part of the work - and especially the improvements.

    The biggest improvement THIS YEAR is the class levels and at the very center is the 90% CI.

    Since so many people like making their own figs, I'm thinking about building a small seminar on how I build those class levels. Of course, the secret to GREAT par times is having GREAT class levels.
  • Biniak
    54
    Dave,

    Thanks for chiming in.
  • Biniak
    54
    Dave,

    I forgot this was an open discussion, but I didn't think you were listening (or available). In my research yesterday on Pace Advantage, Steven or Ranch said he used median for his class calculations. That struck a chord with me as I use Median IV (Implied Volatility not Impact Value) as my edge for my option trading system.

    Anyone else see yesterday's news that the SAT was going digital...no more paper and pencil testing?
  • RanchWest
    423
    Hmm, not sure about what I would have been saying about median in relation to class.

    I've come to conclude that I shouldn't accept one calculation if I can make multiple calculations. Sometimes an individual calculation can be misleading. So, for class I use 19 different calculations to arrive at a single class rating.

    I also turn pace every which way but loose. It is easy to miss the true ability within a running style of a horse.
  • RanchWest
    423
    I probably said something about being more partial to median than average. Average can easily be skewed by a few outliers.
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    I probably said something about being more partial to median than average. Average can easily be skewed by a few outliers.RanchWest

    Boy, do I agree with that!
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Biniak- Thank you for the kind programming offer. I will definitely consider it. Let's hope the Lrl track surface holds up through the balance of the winter!!
  • Biniak
    54
    Tony,

    Just curious are you comfortable with Excel? It would be a fun project!!! Heck even the SATs don't use p&p anymore! Take Care!
  • Steven
    111
    I think maybe my favorite is Renegage Handicapper, just for the way it points to value. Second to that would be Horse Market Investing.
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    I think maybe my favorite is Renegage Handicapper, just for the way it points to value. Second to that would be Horse Market Investing.Steven

    Those are two of my favorite products as well.

    Another was Change Your Game Forever.
    That product originated from 6 or 7 coaching sessions given TO me by one of our professional players. He outlined it so well that I built it into a product.

    Unfortunately, he left out the part about what the SOURCE for his inspiration came from.
    LOL

    Turned out it was from a movie!
    And it followed the script way too closely.
    (Caused me to remove it from circulation.)

    BTW, I discovered it while watching the movie with Beth. About 45 minutes into the movie I told her how amazingly similar the storyline was to the coaching I received.
  • RanchWest
    423
    What movie?
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    What movie?RanchWest

    I was waiting for that question. LOL

    I don't recall but it was a golf movie with Robert Duvall.
  • Biniak
    54
    Good Morning All,

    Thanks for your input! I have two DS products, P&P2012 and How to Figure Out What Wins (although my link to recover this video gives me a security warning). I can say unequivocally you always get 5-10X more than you expect for the price and you LEARN something NEW. He puts an inornate amount of labor into everything (even email responses). Occasionally you get ideas from his ideas!

    For example, Dave suggested reading "How To Measure Anything" in a video and after researching the author, I ordered the book as it has investment and business implications I have never thought of before.
  • RanchWest
    423
    7 Days in UtopiaDave Schwartz

    SFT. Thanks.
  • Biniak
    54
    So, our horse racing discussion has morphed into a movie idea...that's pretty cool!

    4.5 stars on Prime Video.
  • RanchWest
    423
    We're still talking about Dave's discontinued product. :)
  • Biniak
    54
    S.F.T. Pass it ON.
  • Biniak
    54
    Starring Robert Duvall as Dave Schwartz.
  • RanchWest
    423
    With a cast of thousands.
  • Biniak
    54
    Dave, Tony, Steven and Ranch,

    So I opened this seemingly innocent discussion a little over two days ago and I now have a GREAT handicapping idea to research, a challenging book to read and watched a moving Christian movie to pass on.

    Pretty incredible how God works!

    Thank you, my friends.

    Also wanted to pass on an unbelievable horse racing feat that occurred yesterday at LRL. The winner of the 4th race, Beverly Park was making his 4th start this year (January 2nd, 14th, 23rd and 27th).

    But that's only half the story, he raced at OP, CT, TP and LRL of course. Talk about frequent flier miles!
  • RanchWest
    423
    Wow! 7 tracks in his last 10 races. Same trainer. 7 wins in those 10 starts. And KEE was the only track where he won twice. TP was the only track where he didn't win and it was his only AW track in those 10 races.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295


    I've use Excel minus some of the more advanced functions.Thank you. I own Excel and can probably manage most of the functions.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295


    I'm going to watch that movie right now. Thanks Dave
  • RanchWest
    423
    Hope you enjoy it, Tony. I did.
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