A few people have private messaged me via email and on other forums asking about my power ratings and how do I compute them
I do power ratings and set the lines for friends for NFL/NCAAF/NCAAB/CFL (no NHL or MLB as I have not been good with those) and even though I might set a line for a game I will decide if an advantage is there in order to bet it which is always the case with my betting history! I only select a few games per week to focus on and then compute my ratings to get a line for those games! I will do every game in the NFL and CFL but for College Football and Basketball, I will choose between 4-10 games per week max because there are so many games being played, and computing a rating for each 100+ college basketball and 30+ college football games each week will take forever!! NFL and CFL have less than 30 games and I feel more safe doing all the games in "Week x"
Now you might be thinking: Are you going to show us HOW to create my OWN line?
Well just like any sportsbook bookmaker/oddsmaker I won't actually share my exact formulas on how I compute a game but I will say it involves a few critical factors
1) Starts with creating a "Power Rating" and all a Power Rating is how better a team is vs its opponent today! This is my first step to creating a "raw line" for an upcoming game and it lets me get a feel of how the game could turn out to be!
2) Next I will create an Offensive and Defensive/Special Teams Rating for both teams! This shows how strong each side of the ball is for each time and when combined it will show a number for the team as a whole! Now I have a Power Rating and a Team Rating
When I combine my Team Rating's together Off+Def (for each team) I will get a "line" for the game which I will use for my "Opening Line" when the week starts off; this line will always be adjusted for injuries or certain scenarios that will change how the public sees both teams
Now to get a Total number for a certain game it's kept secret because it involves lots of numbers and I don't want to share it right now (too long to understand here)
To demonstrate how "accurate" or at least close to Vegas as my lines could possibly be here is an example from last Saturday's matchup in NCAAF (College Football) between Samford and Florida
The Power Ratings for this matchup were: Samford 18 and Florida 55 with a "raw line" of -37 for Florida and a Total of 73
The Off+Def numbers added together for Samford is 17 and for Florida, it is 55.3 so the line for this game for me is -38
For the totals, I have 2 ratings I have computed and for this game #1 model says the Total is 72.3 and #2 model says 72.2
So in wrapping things up here are my numbers compared to Vegas lines
Vegas Line Conley Line
Samford 69 72
Florida -36.5 -38
If I were to do picks for this game I would do the OVER 69 in this game because it has an advantage of +3 (72-69=3) vs the point spread which is 1.5 (38-36.5)
The final score was a big one (for scoring sake) with Florida beating Samford 70-52 with our Over 69 bet hitting (Total was 122 for the game)
Hopefully, I didn't confuse anyone here with my blabbing but this is what I pretty well do every day that I can get off and even though every week is not 100% I still have fun doing it and will continue to do this until I die (LOL)
Oh and one more thing to note:
For betting purposes I have yet to place a actual sports betting ticket in real life and have only been paper testing for 2-3 years now but only doing my ratings since this year
And also for the "advantages" for each game I would like to see a +3 or more because the bigger the advantage the bigger the confidence I have! And the above example proves my theory!
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