• Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu 2-6

    Race 5- It's All Relevant (9-5)- 9yo appears to be well meant as trainer Rudy Rodriguez enters waiving the claiming tag. Speed is his game but he will have to run hard as there a several others that want the lead. Tough to support at less than 2-1.
  • RanchWest
    457
    Nice calls, Tony!
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav summary through 2-6
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (14K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqy 2-10

    Race 7- Hush of a Storm (2-1)- has yet to hit the board on any surface other than the Turfway polytrack. I'm betting that his late kick will be too late at a short price.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav for 2-11 Aqu

    Race 8- Eminency (8-5)- expect him to be bet heavily today with the barn trying blinkers. I feel others in here are just as good.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 2-12

    Race 3- Freddymo Factor (9-5)- lost by a diminishing neck last out while earning a career best fig. That's a recipe for a well supported horse at the windows. But I rate 4 others in here just as fast. Can't accept low odds in this wide open event.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 2-13

    Race 8- Breakfastatbonnies (9-5)- unlikely to control the front end today with Sadie Lady in this race. She rates no better than 3rd on my performance figs.
    Race 9- Bohemian Ruby (2-1)- lost 3 straight in similar spots doesn't rate well on performance figs. Can't accept a low price on her.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Summary for Aqu vulnerable favs through 2-13-2022

    Win % of vulnerable favs= 22%
    $net of vulnerable favs= $1.28
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (14K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 2-18

    Race 3- Boss Cara (9-5)- is one of 4 with similar projected figs which makes it hard to take low odds on her.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Thank you Dave. When one can get an edge in this game they can't ignore it. I believe this is a way to put one ahead of their competition.
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    When one can get an edge in this game they can't ignore it. I believe this is a way to put one ahead of their competition.Tony Kofalt

    I think that anyone's ROI would be at least break-even if they only played races with a VULNERABLE FAVORITE.

    If they do not "at least break-even" then they must consider that they're using an ANTI-HANDICAPPING approach. That is, they should be tossing the horses they're playing and reconsider the field.

    THOUGHTS?
    All opinions are welcome.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Lol Dave!! But you are right. Statistics tell us that MOST players lose money at this game. But they continue to handicap using the same process that made them a loser. I'm not referring those who can stay close to the break even level. For them some tweaking may make the difference. Many players hang on to 'accepted' methods and feel they are handicapping the correct way. In a parimutuel game that simply doesn't make sense. Search for alternative methods to approach handicapping.
    I recall one of Dave's approaches was to use his method to find maybe his top or top 2 selections and then utilize an alternative approach to identify other contenders. Perhaps you could clarify that for me Dave.
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    I recall one of Dave's approaches was to use his method to find maybe his top or top 2 selections and then utilize an alternative approach to identify other contenders. Perhaps you could clarify that for meTony Kofalt

    This is more applicable today than ever before.

    Such a good topic that I think I'll do a short video about it.

    Short version would be that what most people see as a big positive in terms of hit rate - and actually IS a big positive - is now a BIG NEGATIVE FOR ROI.

    A recent study I did indicates that top 5 jockey + top 15 trainer + low odds = play against horse!.
    These horses are so obvious as to be completely overbet.

    [special note: Weekdays only.
    Weekends are completely different.]
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    PS: When I built a strategy around this (after testing) and actually went to the window (about 3 weeks ago), I had the best single day I've had in like 10 years.

    Played 54 races on the day.
    1 horse per race.
    Won 5 out of 6 sessions.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable Aqu fav 2-18

    Race 8- Wudda U Think Now (4-5)- figures to take a step backwards after running an EXTREMELY fast race last time. I think he's a good bet against while regressing.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 2-20

    Race 5- Famished (8-5)- makes his 3rd start in 17 days which is not something I like to see. He's sports the top speed figs but I'm I can't take the anticipated low odds.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    vulnerable fav Aqu 2-21

    Race 3- P J Advantage (2-1)- takes a big class drop but is a marginal fit on projected figs. Avoid at a low price.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable Aqu M/L favs summary through 2-21-22
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (14K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable Aqu fav 2-24
    Race 2- Bastet (8-5)- certainly has the credentials to win this but I expect her to be challenged early. Avoid as a low priced favorite.
    Race 6- Dr Ardito (9-5)- Returns after a long rest for the strong Chad Brown barn. But he hooks some sharp runners here that have run faster. Expect very low odds
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable M/L fav at Aqu 2-25

    Race 4- Braciole (3-1)- figures to go the post favored in a race that can't be considered Pletcher's sweetspot. Can't accept a low price
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu 2-26
    Race 1- Galaxina (1-2)- appears to be the best speed type but may be wavering late. Jock is on fire lately. Way overbet.
    Race 4- Pals Ally (5-2)- has lost twice at this level while running competitively both times. Hindered by lack of early foot. More likely to finish off exotics than to win this one at a low price
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav 2-27 Aqu
    Race 1- Wicked Happy (1-1)- has earned over $100k while maintaining her maiden status. Quite impressive. But she has failed many times at this level. Hard to support her at very low odds.
    Race 8- Betsy Blue (3-1)- has been on the shelf since Sept and drew a very difficult post for her return.
    several in here are projected to run just as fast.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable favs through 2-27 at Aqu
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (15K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav 3-3 Aqu

    Race 2- Banyan Breeze (9-5)- has been away from the races for 7 weeks and hooks a highly competitive bunch. Can't accept low odds in wide open event.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable favs 3-5 Aqu
    Race 1- Disco Pharoah (8-5)- has been idle since Dec and is a marginal player when I project his fig. Pass at low odds.
    Race 2- Long Term (1-1)- 3yo does not have the feel of a horse who will improve today. I think a few others will. Can't accept extremely low odds.
    Race 6- Hot Rod Rumble (2-1)- may have plateaued a bit. Not a favorable setup
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 3-6
    Race 1- Magnetique (9-5)- won over an extremely speed biased track on 12-31 producing a big fig. I expect her to fade today over a fair track
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Summary of vulnerable fav Aqu through 3-6-22
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (15K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 3-11
    Race 1- Winning Drive (2-1)- may fall a bit too far behind the leaders and have to settle for a minor award.
  • Tony Kofalt
    323
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 3-12

    Race 7- Snicket (5-2)- has failed at this level too many times She's more likely to earn a minor award
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