• Tony Kofalt
    This thread has been dedicated to identifying vulnerable favs. But the real key is how to convert these vulnerable horses into winning opportunities for us. As an example, let's focus on Race 5 at Aqu on 11-11.
    When I handicapped this race I felt that Graded On a Curve would be badly over bet. Curve is 6-5 on the M/L, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz. He's dropping from a respectable finish against stakes company to a '2 other than' with NY breds. At first blush Curve looks formidable.
    When I handicapped this race I projected 4 others to be just as fast as Curve and they will offer much better betting odds. So I think it is appropriate to take a stand against Curve. Can he win? Certainly, but racing is all about finding opportunities that your opponents do not.
    So here is what I'm doing in the P3 using races 5, 6 and 7
    Race 5- A's- 5,11 B's 4, 8
    Race 6, A's 6,8 B's 2
    Race 7- A's 2,5.B's 8

    $1 5,11 with 2,6,8 with 2,5,8 = $18
    $1 4,5,8,11 with 6,8 with 2,5,8= $24
    $1 4,5,8,11 with 2,6,8 with 2,5 = $24
    $2 5,11 with 6,8 with 2,5,8 = $24
    $2 5,11 with 2,6,8 with 2,5= $24
    $2 4,5,8,11 with 6,8 with 2,5 = $32
    $ 4 5,11 with 6,8 with 2,5= $32

    Good luck
  • William Zayonce
    Curious about eliminating the #3 in the 6th?
  • Tony Kofalt
    The 4-5 favorite Curve came through for Chad Brown busting our P3's right out of the gate. Despite the losing ticket we made a good wager. We had several well priced horses on the tickets. Favorites WILL beat us. I just look for opportunities where the fav projects to attract much more pari-mutuel attention than I believe they deserve.
  • Tony Kofalt

    Good and very logical question William. An important part of my handicapping process is to 'project' a performance figure. My projected figure is based on previous figs adjusted by other handicapping factors such as trips, age, time between races etc. One condition of the projected figure is that I always project some progress or regression from the last race.
    In the case of Always Connected I projected a little regression from her last. I felt that she was likely to regress a little based on her hard debut at long odds and relatively quick return. Conversely I felt the 'Ward' horse would show some improvement.
    It would not have been hard to make a case for Always Connected. I just decided to pass on regression at what figured to be an over bet filly
  • Dave Schwartz
    I'm thinking this is an opportunity for a learning moment from @Tony Kofalt.
    I'm going to put in my $0.02 and then please carry the water if I have it right.

    When guys like Tony talk, try to read between the lines; try to learn what they're saying.

    In the case of Always Connected I projected a little regression from her last.Tony Kofalt

    What I heard here is that Tony made an important handicapping decision about a key contestant that he thought would underperform. I believe that the next thing he did was to ask the question, "HOW DO I LEVERAGE this into a PAYDAY?"

    What say you, Tony?
    Am I on the right track in my thinking?
  • Tony Kofalt
    I could not not have said it better Dave. To me, finding opportunities to play against over bet horses is key. This approach lends itself to some losing tickets as well bet horses win a lot of races. But I think we should all be looking in that direction without forcing the issue.
    We'll go at it again tomorrow at Aqu.
  • Dustin Korth

    That's good to hear Tony, that's the idea. Would be helpful to choose horizontal sequences to study further if we could reliably draw a line through certain contenders right off the bat. I don't want to muddy this thread with daily updates on something theoretical but I will keep up on it and post the Excel file weekly or so to see if we can find a nice DTOP angle for eliminating short prices. What I can say is that on Day 1 none of the post-time favs were winners so promising start.
  • William Zayonce
    Tony Kofalt

    [/quote]/quote]An important part of my handicapping process is to 'project' a performance figure
    Thank-you Tony! This is the sort of "non quantifiable" handicapping factor that I was hoping to hear.
  • Tony Kofalt
    Very muddy track at Aqu and no scratches available yet. No vulnerable favs to report yet
  • Ken Fee
    Per Predictform website From 4/20/15 Double Top Pace Top (DTOP) the Top Contender

    Total entries-34,787
    Ave Odds 4.4
    Wins 9,143
    Win % 26.3
    Win Roi -16.2
  • Ken Fee
    Thank you Tony for insight into your ticket structuring.
    These will be the races i will be looking at today. All these ML Fav based on my database should have odds of 7/2 or higher. If they go off lower I toss them from consideration.

    AQU-07 #6 Pretty Clever
    AQU-09 #1 The Right Path
    CD-06 #6 Ram
    DMR-06 #11 Chollima
    DMR-08 #5 La Pulcinela
    GP-03 #5 Afficionado
    GP-05 #4 Truly
    GP-07 #6 Kozy Dreams
    HAW-01 #3 Nofansinthestands
    HAW-02 #6 Go Stormin Girl
    HAW-05 #7 Driver Dan
    HAW-06 #4 Will Knows
    HAW-07 #3 Two Worlds
    HAW-08 #7 One Way Home
    HAW-09 #8 Ripe Attack
    LRL-02 #1 Hope Has A Name
    LRL-05 #3 Fearless Lassie
    WO-02 #1 Bachelor Pad
    WO-08 #8 Carl G
  • Tony Kofalt
    Vulnerable favs Belmont 11-13

    Race 7- Breakfastatbonnies (9-5)- several in here match or exceed her figs. Difficult class rise at low odds.
    This list may be modified after scratched and track conditions are announced on Saturday morning.
  • Ken Fee
    AQU-07 #6 Pretty Clever- finished 3rd off at 2/1 favorite
    AQU-09 #1 The Right Path - finished 3rd off at 5/2 2nd choice
    CD-06 #6 Ram - finished 2nd off at 5/2 co-favorite
    DMR-06 #11 Chollima-finished 1
    DMR-08 #5 La Pulcinela finished 1
    GP-03 #5 Afficionado - finished 2nd off at 2/1 favorite
    GP-05 #4 Truly- finished 4th off at 9/5 favorite
    GP-07 #6 Kozy Dreams out off at 5/2 2nd choice
    HAW-01 #3 Nofansinthestands - finished 3rd of at 7/2 3rd choice
    HAW-02 #6 Go Stormin Girl - finished 3rd of at 4/1 was co-favorite up until loading
    HAW-05 #7 Driver Dan finished 2nd favorite
    HAW-06 #4 Will Knows out was 2nd choice
    HAW-07 #3 Two Worlds out
    HAW-08 #7 One Way Home- 1
    HAW-09 #8 Ripe Attack out
    LRL-02 #1 Hope Has A Name - finished 1 off at 2/1 favorite
    LRL-05 #3 Fearless Lassie - finished 2 off at 5/2 2nd choice
    WO-02 #1 Bachelor Pad- finished 1
    WO-08 #8 Carl G 1
    19 tosses 6 of which won
  • Tony Kofalt
    Let's see if we can turn a vulnerable fav into some profits. The vulnerable fav is in Belmont race 7 on Saturday as Breakfastatbonnies at 9-5 M/L.
    Race 7 50 cent P4's
    1,3 with 4,5 with 2,4,6 with 4,5,7 = $18
    1,3 with 4,5 with 6 with 4,5,7 = $6
    1,3 with 4,5 with 2,4,6 with 4,7 = $12
    1,3,5,6 with 4,5 with 6 with 4,5,7 = $12
    1,3,5,6 with 4,5 with 2,4,6 with 4,7 =$24
    1,3 with 4,5 with 6 with 4,7 =$4
    1,3,5,6 with 4,5 with 2,4,6 with 4,5,7 =$36
    $1 P4's
    1,3 with 4,5 with 6 with 4,5,7 = $12
    1,3 with 4,5 with 2,4,6 with 4,7 = $24
    1,3,5,6, with 4,5 with 6 with 4,7 =$16
  • William Zayonce
    Tony Kofalt
    You've accidentally printed "Belmont" .
    Good luck with your P4 at Aqueduct!
  • Tony Kofalt

    Lol- I apologize but it will prob happen again. Thanks for the good wishes. Despite beating the fav in race 7 a series of 'bombs' left me tearing up tickets. I serious storm blew through right before race 7 changing the track condition for the balance of the card.
    Tomorrow is another day!!!!
  • William Zayonce
    Blast the off miserable off track! Always hated when that happens!
  • Tony Kofalt
    Vulnerable favs Aqu Sunday 11-14

    Race 6- B C Glory Days (5-2)- 3yo showing little improvement. Several others just as fast.
  • William Zayonce
    In the case of Always Connected I projected a little regression from her last.
    — Tony Kofalt
    I think this is a clear demonstration of how we must use the "thinking" process in addition to our "calculating" process in choosing or eliminating contenders . For me, this is the most satisfying part of handicapping ( short of being "right" and cashing a ticket).
  • Tony Kofalt

    I feel the same way as well. On the marginal cases I let the tote board assist. In the long run, I believe getting value is important.
  • Tony Kofalt
    3 vulnerable favorites at Aqu this week. 1 did win. If updated our running spreadsheet and attached it
    Vulnerable favs (11K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    Vulnerable favs at Belmont on Thursday 11-18

    Race 3- Thorny Tale (2-1)- below odds on in 5 of last 7. Barn having an amazing year but doesn't fare well in NY. Over bet.
    Race 4- Caribbean Gold (7-2)- turf only. A little lite on speed figs and a difficult post. Can't take low odds
  • Tony Kofalt
    Just an example of what can happen when you beat M/L favs. On Thursday both vulnerable favs lost and both were part of the early P4 and P5. I DID NOT WIN THIS BET TODAY. I played in both pools but did not include the winner of the 3rd. So for me I lost a little over $700 in those races.
    But with a little luck these payoffs are attainable.

    Bet Winning Numbers Payoff
    $1 EXACTA 11-2 $36.00
    $0.50 TRIFECTA 11-2-7 $40.12
    $0.10 SUPERFECTA 11-2-7-6 $89.95
    $1 DOUBLE 9/11 $77.25
    $1 PICK THREE 2/9/11 $2,659.00
    $0.50 PICK FOUR 9/2/9/11 $10,893.75
    $0.50 EARLY PICK 5 9/9/2/9/11 $136,218.25
  • Tony Kofalt
    No vulnerable favs at Aqu on Friday 11-19.
  • Tony Kofalt
    Vulnerable favs for Saturday 11-20

    Race 8 Colton's Command (3-1)- I count 6 horses in here that I project to run just as fast as this fav. and several have more tactical speed. Colton will certainly run his race but is very beatable at low odds.

    Race 9- Serve the King- (3-1)- ran a career best figure last out but doesn't deserve to be favored in the highly competitive event. The Brown/Ortiz combo insure he will be overbet.
  • Tony Kofalt
    With vulnerable favs in 2 legs of the late P4 let's see if we can convert that scenario into $$$.
    Race 7 Belmont
    $1 1,2,8 with 2 with 1,3,7,10 with 1,6,8,9,= $48
    $2 1,2,8 with 2 with 1,7 with 1,6,8,9,= $48
    $2 1,2,8 with 2 with, 1,3,7,10 with 1,9= $48
    $1 6 with 2 with 1,7 with 1,9= $4
  • William Zayonce
    Tony Kofalt
    I love seeing your analysis and betting strategy in these races! Please continue! I'm finding them helpful in rethinking my handicapping process. After a 10 year hiatus its a bit rusty.
  • Tony Kofalt

    Thanks William. I plan to continue. I'm just not sure if its the best way to present things. If you have any ideas please share and I will do my best to incorporate them. I've had no luck with the betting suggestions thus far but I know that will even out over time.
  • William Zayonce
    Tony Kofalt
    The success rate can't be accurately judged from just a few trys. I think the strategy of trying to beat vulnerable favorites is sound. My interest lies in the selection/elimination process for play on choices. How much of your handicapping is fairly rigid( by the numbers) and how much is "organic" ( like projecting progression or regression) or "esoteric" ( for example: using track bias, trip notes or trainer/ jockey strengths , weaknesses or habits) ?
  • Tony Kofalt

    I have a fairly rigid routine when approaching the handicapping of a race. Virtually the same steps each race such as evaluating the favorite, attempting to determine the pace setup and projecting a performance fig for each entrant. Projecting the performance fig is organic and is accomplished primarily through 'feel'. But it could be done through paceline selection selection provided:
    1) multiple pacelines could be considered
    2) pacelines could be weighted
    3) The output from the pacelines could be adjusted (for example when projecting a new 'top')
    Hope that helps
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