• stevekisslinger
    3
    A place where we can share thoughts on which favorites running today, are most likely to lose, especially at low-odds. Commentary on WHY you feel that way, and how you would BET or PASS on that race are encouraged. Post Mortems welcome. Any interest out there?
  • Ken Fee
    15
    Parx 7 - #7 Kirtan- finished way back last, not in top 3 PSR
    Parx 8 - #3 Rose E Holiday- slooow
  • Dustin Korth
    41
    The angle: A race does one of two things: puts something into a horse or takes something out of a horse. We're looking for morning line favorites that had it taken out of them by triggering what we call a DTOP (double top) where they ran their best career half mile split as well as final figure (based on the 4F and Final pace figs that I use). They also must be racing less than 60 days rest and have 4 races under their belt.

    I'll try to keep up with this daily and see how it does.

    Ind 6 - #1 Chandana 2/1
    Prx 8 - #3 Rose E Holiday 7/2
  • Tony Kofalt
    248

    Wow Dustin that's an interesting concept. I have a close friend and very good player that loves pace tops!! I will speak to him tomorrow about a double top.
    Thanks for the idea
  • Ken Fee
    15
    Parx 7 - #7 Kirtan- finished way back last, not in top 3 PSR Finished 3rd
    Parx 8 - #3 Rose E Holiday- slooow Finished 6th
  • Ken Fee
    15
    CD 1 - #2 Mama Lou
    CD 4 - #2 Flags Up
    CD 5 - #4 Ceeky
    CD 8 - #1 Speightstown Again
    CD 10 - #6 Gigging
    DMR1 - #5 Honorary Degree
    DMR 5 - #1 Ronamo
    Prx 6 - #8 Tate
  • Ken Fee
    15
    CD 1 - #2 Mama Lou - 2nd
    CD 4 - #2 Flags Up - 3rd
    CD 5 - #4 Ceeky - out
    CD 8 - #1 Speightstown Again out
    CD 10 - #6 Gigging 3rd
    DMR1 - #5 Honorary Degree 2nd
    DMR 5 - #1 Ronamo Scratched
    Prx 6 - #8 Tate out

    7 ml fav out of 7 tosses today
  • Dave Schwartz
    178
    CD 1 - #2 Mama Lou - 2nd
    CD 4 - #2 Flags Up - 3rd
    CD 5 - #4 Ceeky - out
    CD 8 - #1 Speightstown Again out
    CD 10 - #6 Gigging 3rd
    DMR1 - #5 Honorary Degree 2nd
    DMR 5 - #1 Ronamo Scratched
    Prx 6 - #8 Tate out

    7 ml fav out of 7 tosses today
    Ken Fee

    These were so good I think I'll claim them as my own.
  • Ken Fee
    15
    11-4-21 Vulnerable Favortes

    CD 3 - #6 Smart Time
    CD 8 - #6 Bow Bow Girl
    DMR 8 - #8 Big Stretch
    LRL 6 - #7 Mortal Storm
    LRL 7 - #5 Laoban's Legacy
    WO 5 - #6 Matthaus
    WO 6 - #7 Starlight Ridge
    WO 7 - #5 Ben Lomond
  • Dave Schwartz
    178


    Sure hope MY ANTI-PICKS do as well as they did the other day.
    BTW, Ken, who do I not like today?
    Oh, I see they're up.
  • Ken Fee
    15
    11-4-21 Vulnerable Favortes Recap

    CD 3 - #6 Smart Time - 1st
    CD 8 - #6 Bow Bow Girl - 2nd
    DMR 8 - #8 Big Stretch - 2nd
    LRL 6 - #7 Mortal Storm - Out
    LRL 7 - #5 Laoban's Legacy - 2nd
    WO 5 - #6 Matthaus - Out
    WO 6 - #7 Starlight Ridge - Out
    WO 7 - #5 Ben Lomond - Out


    8 Ml Fav tosses- 7 non-winners
  • Dave Schwartz
    178
    8 Ml Fav tosses- 7 non-winnersKen Fee

    WOW!
  • Tony Kofalt
    248
    Belmont 11-5 vulnerable M/L favs
    Race 8- Barkin (7-5)- several in here run just as fast, if not faster than her.
    Race 10- Boom Boom Kaboom (3-1)- sports 0-17 record and breaks from tough post

    Good luck today
  • Ken Fee
    15
    Bel Race 1 - #8 Veterans Beach
    Bel Race 5 - #1 Dark money
    Bel Race 8 - #6 Barkin
    CD Race 2 - #6 Pickford
    CD Race 6 - #2 Katzarelli
    DMR Race1- #4 Triple Tap
    GG Race 5 - #3 Liams Secret
    GG Race 8 - #4 Song of Fire
    GP Race 5 - #3 Allegedly Perfect
    Haw Race 1- #9 Unburnt
    Haw Race 3 -#9 Channel Won
    Haw Race5 - #11 Embarrassing
    Wo Race 2 - #8 Samuel H
    Wo Race 5 - #8 Wide Awake
  • Ken Fee
    15
    Hit rates pretty consistently 22% ML Favs winning. Way below that last few days expect to see it come back to range :)
  • Ken Fee
    15
    Bel Race 1 - #8 Veterans Beach - 1st
    Bel Race 5 - #1 Dark money - 1st
    Bel Race 8 - #6 Barkin - Out
    CD Race 2 - #6 Pickford - 2nd
    CD Race 6 - #2 Katzarelli -Out
    DMR Race1- #4 Triple Tap -1st
    GG Race 5 - #3 Liams Secret -2nd
    GG Race 8 - #4 Song of Fire
    GP Race 5 - #3 Allegedly Perfect -out
    Haw Race 1- #9 Unburnt -out
    Haw Race 3 -#9 Channel Won *out
    Haw Race5 - #11 Embarrassing - 1st
    Wo Race 2 - #8 Samuel H -out
    Wo Race 5 - #8 Wide Awake -2nd


    14 ML Tosses- 4 winners 28% prior 2 days -14Tosses -1 winner combined 28 Tosses 5 winners 18% on its way back to range :)
  • Tony Kofalt
    248
    Vulnerable favs Belmont 11-6

    Race 7- Shad Nation (5-2)- expect a good effort but figures to be over bet
    Race 10- Wicked East (3-1)-
  • Ken Fee
    15
    11-6-21 Vulnerable ML Favs
    Bel Race 2 - #4 Lookin to Fly
    Bel Race 4 - #4 Somelikeitbrown
    Bel Race 5 - #3 Uncle Gem
    Bel Race 6 - #1 I Love Jason
    CD Race 3 - #1 Big Nick
    CD Race 9 - # 1 Allege
    CD Race 10 - #8 Mucho
  • Ken Fee
    15
    GP Race 3 - #3 Emoji Guy
    GP Race 7 - #6 Uhtred
    GP Race 9 - #7 American Prince
    GP Race 10 - #3 King of Dreams
    LRL Race 5 - #8 Bahama Channel
    Wo Race 7- #11 Avies Samurai
    Wo Race 8 - # 5 Tecumsehs War
    Wo Race 10- #2 If Si Was Nine
    WO Race 11 - #8 Stencil

    Also have GG and Haw but need to get to work
  • Ken Fee
    15
    11-6-21 Vulnerable ML Favs
    Bel Race 2 - #4 Lookin to Fly - Out
    Bel Race 4 - #4 Somelikeitbrown - 1
    Bel Race 5 - #3 Uncle Gem - Out
    Bel Race 6 - #1 I Love Jason - Out
    CD Race 3 - #1 Big Nick - Out
    CD Race 9 - # 1 Allege - Out
    CD Race 10 - #8 Mucho - 2nd
    GP Race 3 - #3 Emoji Guy - 1
    GP Race 7 - #6 Uhtred - 3rd
    GP Race 9 - #7 American Prince - Out
    GP Race 10 - #3 King of Dreams - 1
    LRL Race 5 - #8 Bahama Channel - Out
    Wo Race 7- #11 Avies Samurai - Out
    Wo Race 8 - # 5 Tecumsehs War - Out
    Wo Race 10- #2 If Si Was Nine - 2nd
    WO Race 11 - #8 Stencil - rd

    Listed 16 ML Fav's tossed- 3 winners 13 Non winners
  • Tony Kofalt
    248
    Vulnerable M/L favs at Belmont 11-7

    Race 5- Beyond Best (5-2)- not in a spot (FTS dirt/route) where Pletcher is strong. Way over bet
    Race 6- Split then Double (3-1) several in here just as fast. Beaten fav last 2

    good luck to all
  • Tony Kofalt
    248
    Vulnerable fav update attached
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (11K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    248
    Guys, after reviewing my updated spreadsheet on vulnerable favs I'm a bit embarrassed. The results over that 18 play sample were not very good. But it a small sample. I will continue to post the vulnerable M/L favs through Aqu so we can prove that this is a viable approach. Vulnerable favs play a big role in my decisions to play horizontal tickets. There will be days when time permits where I will post the tickets I am structuring. Hopefully this will spawn constructive discussion.
  • Dustin Korth
    41
    Ok now that BC is over I can start tracking on my original post about DTOPs.

    One other thought is that it seems the true goal should be to find vulnerable post-time favorites rather than morning line favorites. After all, the track handicapper's opinion means nothing in regard to our pursuit to beat the public's opinion which solely decides payout.

    So with that said, I'll track all DTOPs daily then only take post-time favorites into consideration for result tracking.

    I have 30 DTOPs on Wednesday but for the sake of this thread, here's the actual morning line favorites of them:
    11/10
    CD6 #4 Vidal 5/2
    CD8 #5 Front Street 7/5
    IND5 #2 Rooster Run 9/5
  • Dave Schwartz
    178

    Could you explain what we'd anticipate happening with these?

    Good or bad outcomes?
  • Dustin Korth
    41

    Well, the idea of the DTOP itself is that something has just been taken out of the horse and regression is expected. By tracking all of them, I hope to either confirm or expel a few different theories:

    Layoff
    Premise: When a horse puts out a peak performance, they need healing time before they can run back without a regression.
    Test: Do we see higher regression rates off DTOPs for horses racing back quicker than those coming off an acceptable layoff (60 days perhaps?)

    Sex
    Premise: I’ve read that in general males have stronger group herd dynamics and weaker individual herd dynamics and females vice versa. Meaning a male horse will over-exert itself to beat the herd but a female will contain herself more to preventing tiring/injury.
    Test: Do female runners break through DTOPs more often while male runners regress off DTOPs more often?

    Age/Career Races
    Premise: Younger or lightly-raced horses do not yet have a ceiling established so we don’t know where their “true DTOP” lies.
    Test: Do lightly-raced runners break through DTOPs more often than established horses. We should be able to find a defined range where a horse stops being “lightly-raced” and becomes “established.” (4 races perhaps?)

    Perhaps other categories to look at will catch the eye as well.

    From this, I’m hoping we can start to identify “ideal vulnerable favorites” that fit the sweet spot (if there is one) in each category.

    And if it’s starting to look inconclusive after doing it for a while, so be it. I move on to something else.
  • Tony Kofalt
    248


    FWIW. I did speak to my friend who loves pace tops and he told me that his experience is NOT to bet horses coming off a DTOP. It will be interesting to watch the results of your test
  • Tony Kofalt
    248
    Vulnerable M/L fav at AQU 11-11
    Race 5- Graded on a Curve- (6-5)- figures to be over bet with the Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz combo.
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