• Tony Kofalt
    295
    Here are a couple of ML favorites at Belmont tomorrow that I won't include on my horizontal wagers. Jump in if your see any more vulnerable low priced horses
    Race 1- Supreme Aura
    Race 3- Mahaamel

    Good luck at the windows!!
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Race 4- Five Alarm Robin
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Just a heads up with the scratches- That Five Alarm Robin moved up, not as vulnerable :)
    A few others different Tracks
    GP Race 6- #7 Bahamian Rhapsody
    KEE Race 4- #6 Miner's Queen
    Race 6- #11 Risk Manager
    LRL Race 5- #12 Especialea
    Race 6- #8 Josef is Real
    WO Race 1- #6 Strike the Top
    Race 3- #6 Ami's Link
    Race 4- #6 Tycoon
    Race 7- #4 High Society Girl
    Race 8- #1 Ready Hero

    Woodbine pre-scratches proceed with caution
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Scratches in for Woodbine- everything stands as is
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Wow Ken- 4 tracks. I just cant keep up with 4 tracks. But I will be watching your horses. Thanks for the information!!!
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Today I had 2 vulnerable ML favs at Belmont.
    Race 1- Supreme Aura- failed at 6-5 tiring badly through the lane
    Race 3- Mahaamel- was beaten, but did run a big race going off 3rd choice.

    How can identifying vulnerable ML favs help you? Being one that plays horizontal wagers beating a vulnerable fav gives me a chance to get an overlay payout on my wagers. Today both vulnerable favs were in the early P5. The P5 paid $1,664 for a 50 cent ticket. We'll continue this exercise with Fridays card.
  • Dave Schwartz
    237
    How can identifying vulnerable ML favs help you? Being one that plays horizontal wagers beating a vulnerable fav gives me a chance to get an overlay payout on my wagers. Today both vulnerable favs were in the early P5. The P5 paid $1,664 for a 50 cent ticket. We'll continue this exercise with Fridays card.Tony Kofalt

    If one can identify favorites that are long-term losing propositions, you could almost throw darts in the race and do better than break even.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Lol- we need to find another way. I use darts to find vulnerable favorites!!
  • Ken Fee
    30
    BEL Race 4- # 6 Five Alarm Robin 3rd
    GP Race 6- #7 Bahamian Rhapsody 2nd
    KEE Race 4- #6 Miner's Queen out
    Race 6- #11 Risk Manager win
    LRL Race 5- #12 Especialea out
    Race 6- #8 Josef is Real 2nd
    WO Race 1- #6 Strike the Top wins by a nose-didn't notice off turf for race
    Race 3- #6 Ami's Link wins by a nose
    Race 4- #6 Tycoon 2nd
    Race 7- #4 High Society Girl out
    Race 8- #1 Ready Hero out
  • Ken Fee
    30
    So between us Tony at Belmont we tossed 3 of the 5 races ML Favorites
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Hi Dave, ML favs dont always translate to Favs :)
  • Dave Schwartz
    237


    Good point.
    But usually they are "low priced."
    Even having one of those will get you to even - providing the handicapper is good at picking losers.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295

    Ken you are correct. The ML fav is not always the post time fav. But 2 points on that:
    1) The ML fav usually attracts a strong amount of betting action
    2) When betting horizontals, I've experienced ML favs to be well bet in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th legs of the wagers.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    I could only find 1 ML fav for Friday 10-22 that I definitely won't use on my tickets.
    Race 4- Villainous
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Agreed with all the above points.

    Pre scratch
    Bel Race 4 - #2 Villainous agreed
    Race 8 - #6 Tuscan Queen
    Race 9 - #5 Easy Time
    GP Race 4 - #2 Gold Special
    Race 6 - #5 Light Fury
    Race 9 - #3 Gran Malpec
    HAW Race 2 - #5 Juju's Specialgirl
    KEE Race 8 - #12 Two Emmys
    Race 9 - #7 Overbore
    Race 10- #5 Lucy's Cakes Fly
    WO Race 5 - #4 Piccadilly Beau
  • Jim Pommier
    29
    Good morning. Interesting topic since I like to play PK4's. Do you have a "screener/method" that you use to identify vulnerable ML favorites? I handicap using PP's and look where the trainer has placed the horse and how the horse has performed up to today's race. I hit a nice PK4 a few weeks ago. Eliminated one that had 0 wins in its last 10 races, and was the ML favorite or heavily bet in the last 6. There was another that I included, but maybe could have dropped, that lost it's last 3 races by a length or less. A horse that tries, but just doesn't seem to want to win. If I'm going 3-4 deep or more in a leg, I find it very difficult to toss the ML 1st and/or 2nd favorites knowing their overall win percentage. Hate hitting a 20-1 in one leg, and then losing the next because I tossed the ML favorite. Thanks, Jim.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295

    Good stuff Jim!! I can't say I have a specific method to eliminate ML favs. I also use PP's. Before I start to handicap the PP's I do give each ML fav a glance over to see any flaws such as suspicious drops, long layups, low percentage trainers, etc.
    I then 'handicap' each race. In the end I decide if a ML is vulnerable in my opinion OR figures to be grossly overbet. Todays vulnerable fav was Villainous in the 4th at Belmont. On the plus side is I do like this trainer off a claim. But when I ranked the horses during my handicapping process I ranked him 6th in a 7 horse field. For me, I will exclude any horse ranked as low as 6th when the price will be low.
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Morning, I use software. As i have never really found a maiden method I found any success with I completely skip them. I am a win player for the reason you stated above, I wasn't able to deal with being right on a longer priced horse and then walk away with a loss. Initially, the software is looking for layoffs hard race, or not very strong in numbers. I then use HSH to see if the ml fav I'm eliminating is strong in PSR,CPW or FT. If so they are not an automatic toss but if they are they are gone.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    Villianous won the 4th at Belmont today taking down all my P4's and P5's. We are not going be correct all the time when trying to eliminate low priced horses.
  • Ken Fee
    30
    Bel Race 4 - #2 Villainous agreed Win
    Race 8 - #6 Tuscan Queen Out
    Race 9 - #5 Easy Time Out
    GP Race 4 - #2 Gold Special Scratch
    Race 6 - #5 Light Fury 3rd
    Race 9 - #3 Gran Malpec Out
    HAW Race 2 - #5 Juju's Specialgirl 2nd
    KEE Race 8 - #12 Two Emmys 2nd
    Race 9 - #7 Overbore 2nd
    Race 10- #5 Lucy's Cakes Fly Win
    WO Race 5 - #4 Piccadilly Beau 2nd
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