How are you doing that?
Comments? — Dave Schwartz

Yes, based on a list of keywords that appear in the long version of the comments. I realize this is not perfect, but I am thinking that it would be data that is very under-utilized. It took me about an hour or so to set it up and after that it is fairly low maintenance.

Thanks, I have Dave's strength calculation from one of his products. I will take a look. My apologies for dragging out my research one post at a time.

I may have found an important stat. 5 of 9 horses that were #1 in prime power won. So, ones not #1 in prime power had 2 of 8 as winners. Unfortunately, 2 of the 4 droppers above 6 points were #1 in prime power, but only 1 of those 2 won.

Correction, 17 horses qualified, not 19.

3 at a 4 point drop all lost.
6 of 9 at a 5 or 6 point drop won.
3 of 4 at a drop above 6 points lost.

LeBlanc IVH "false favourite." — Lawrence

Have you found this to be effective? On Sunday, 5/22/22, I used a BRIS par drop of greater than 3 and and a morning line of less than 3.01. That did not pan out very well on the day. Of 19 horses, there were 7 winners. There was only one dropper of greater than 12 par points and at a drop of 21 that one lost on 23 days rest. 6 of the 7 winners were dropping either 5 or 6 points. There were only 3 losers dropping 5 or 6 points.

The payoffs ranged from $2.50 to $6.80, so maybe that's just something to live with since 12 of 19 lost.

Do you have any suggestions as to a way to get this to work better? There was a winner that dropped 12 points. I looked at days away and I didn't locate anything effective. Should I only look at the massive droppers? Or was my sample size just too small?

Or do you think this is only useful as part of an odds line?

Can't recall at the moment whether it was RanchWest, @Biniak, or @Steven, but it was definitely one of them

A BOLO is a BET AGAINST LOW ODDS horse. — Dave Schwartz

I think it was Biniak who dubbed it BA LO.

I worked all day yesterday and did not post for the "jinx" when I post early so I had 8-1-5-4 in case anyone wanted to know — Conley

You had the exacta in your top 3. Own your skill.

Hey that was my 10k bet you're making fun of. — Biniak

My condolences. The memorial service will be on Tuesday.

Probably just got a bad trip :lol: — Dustin Korth

That's hilarious!

Fenwick finished last, 40 1/2 lengths behind.

Don't stop watching. I think Fenwick is rounding the far turn now. :lol:

I guess I should have paid closer attention to my odds line... had the exacta.

My top 4 picks 8-1-2-5.

This is insanity lol. — Dustin Korth

Mattress Mac?

I'm so confused. Fenwick bet down to 7/1??? — Dustin Korth

I'm so with you on that one. I will be amazed if he finishes higher than 7th. I have him worst by nearly every metric. And his trainer is not impressive.

Epicenter should still have gas in the tank and he is the best horse in my opinion. I think he'll take the Preakness. My other choice is SImplification.

Here's my line:

1: 22.2
2: 28.9
3: 83.3
4: 7.6
5: 1.7
6: 83.3
7: 10.1
8: 2.0
9: 8.7

Top 4: 5-8-4-9

I have #4 as a DTOP.

Yes, in my odds line top 3.

Not betting today. I can only watch on YouTube (I'm in Texas). The only thing I found at the time was a Spanish language broadcast of Pimlico and Gulfstream. I tuned in when the results of this race were showing, so I researched it. They don't always pan out, but when they do, it is worth the play.

I just watched one with potential at Gulfstream, but it was on the AW with two closers and one of those was a fairly solid horse who ended up second. The speed held. The other closer came 4th. I don't like to consider a race a chaos potential when there is a solid horse, especially one that closes. I don't watch enough all-weather races to know much about the chaos threshold. It may be akin to turf, where there is no chaos in the same sense as on the dirt. Nearly all of the horses on turf have a low %Median... they expend their energy late.

Switching to Belmont.

Off the turf is also not a good situation to look for chaos by my dirt method. Again, most of the horses have a low %Median.

Race 3 at Pimlico (5/19) was a chaos race. The speed nearly held on, but the closer got up by a nose to pay $47.20, longest shot on the board.

I was trying to stay high level.

Dave talks about vulnerable favorites in the Kentucky Derby video.

My favorite angle is a little rare. If you maintain a profile on %Median of winners, horses that fall outside the winning range are very vulnerable. Rather than maintain a profile, I calculate the median for the field and then set a range based on that median. Horses that are outside the range 4 times in past races are vulnerable. While it is rare, I recently found a 7-horse race where the favorite and three other horses qualified for this elimination and none of them won. I think %M is one of the most under-utilized tools available. It discloses a lot. You can read about another use I have for %M in the Chaos thread.

If you are familiar with Dave's strength par, horses that haven't achieved that speed rating are usually vulnerable. If they're below 7/2, they're a Bet Against.

I am sure there are a lot of other approaches.