• 2 potential lone speed horses at Bel on 6-30
    Welcome to Belmont.
    Somedays, it's like a big surprize party! lol.
  • 2 potential lone speed horses at Bel on 6-30
    TFUS agrees with you on the 8th race
    qf75 (24K)
  • 2 potential lone speed horses at Bel on 6-30
    R4 Musical America, upside, looks positionally to be alone out there, downside, terrible trainer and rider, but that could really boost your price.
    The 2 has shown early speed before, under today's jock, and could be in the mix, but has inferior early pace figs.

    8 QF75 looks to be verly lonely out there and should be able to hold on.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    I've been trying out this paceline selection for a few weeks and have been happy with the results, albiet a small sample size. The prices are certainly better than focusing on recent lines.
    Recent posts here have been extolling the value of time-decay ratings, so I am looking at testing using this line selection method to identify 3 races to use for a TDR rating of several factors, as Ranchwest talked about yesterday. My goal is update my Ultimate Oddsline method, to hopefully grab a few of the better prices out there.
  • Chaos
    An idea Pandy wrote about in one of his books was to add the ESPs to the E2 rating in BRIS.
    I tried doing that using the first call, E1, best 2 of last 4 with promising results in evaluating thev early horses in the race shap.
  • How will they run?
    R4 I would make 4 an A, 1 a B, and 2,7 as Cs.
    I really like the move with the 1, speed fade in MSW, dropping into MC with a bullet a few days ago, and a race in a sprint with "Eric the Anchor" aboard to darken his form.
  • How will they run?
    Interesting race. Todd is listed as 24% 90 days or more, but EB shows him only 9% 180 days or over.
    The 1 horse was recently scratched from a maiden claimer and the FTS are all negative to my guidelines, but the 4 is close, and has an interesting WO line, nothing for 6 weeks from mid march until early may, then a bullet wo and steady works since then. The 5 is definitely a contender, so I would use 4,5,6 in Race 1.
  • 2022 Belmont Stakes
    Key fctor may well the infamous Bel rail bias, which looked strong yesterday.
    Maybe NYRA should move the temporary turf rail to the main track.....

    THANK YOU Jack, for sharing.
  • Congrats to Conley
    Congrats! Nice achievement.
  • Belmont 5-29 3rd Race
    1 scratched
  • Belmont 5-29 3rd Race
    My contenders are 1,6,3.

    1 has two nice angles, Pandy's pace angle, ran against by far the best pace last race, and top notch rider accepting the mount from a lesser trainer.
    6 has next best pace, with good turn time rather than E1, should have first run at the 1 and be well ahead of the rest.
    3 Horse has more excusable races than usable races, good "back early speed" and a good trainer move, if 4-1, I will bet 1W3P

    Overall, 1,3,6 box
    Win bets on 6 if 5-2 or better.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Using BRIS, the rule would use E2 in sprints, E1 in routes, both being quater mile pace?

    No data to quantify, but for years, using the 2nd call pace in both sprints and routes, a pattern I've found very predictive for young, lightly race horses (<10 starts) is

    1. New pace top, SR goes down a length or two
    2. Next race, pace goes down, SR goes to new top.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Fenwick almost got into the trifecta....in the 14th race! LOL
    I heard he was far back. How far back was he?
    He was so far back the AMBULENCE stalled.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Early Voting
  • Black-Eyed Susan Selections 2022

    That's that 1st law of horse racing....
  • Black-Eyed Susan Selections 2022
    My Ultimate Odds Line

    LUNA BELLE 5.7

    My pick is Making Matcha
  • What's Your Favorite Dave Schwartz Product?
    My favorite Dave products, his pars and Figuring Out What Wins.
    Been using his pars since Tom Brohamer recommended them at a Sartin seminar in Baltimore.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Speaking of "Sheets," this is one of the PP formats CJ used to offer with his program, before TFUS.
    It shows the pace and speed figs for pace of race alongside pace of horse, and plots the performance figure, color coded for surface.
    cjpp (91K)
  • Racing in the old days
    I remember the old betting windows specifically assigned an amount and placing. If I wanted to bet WPS, I had to go to three different windows, unless the WPS window was open, usually only one weekends.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Did the Fotius program evolve into Predictform at Brisnet?