Wow. A superstar from the past!

This is you, right?
Handicapping Maiden Races & First Time Starters:

Hate that some of the major players fizzled out here.


Please keep this going.

Loving this trhead.

@RanchWest Keep doing what you're doing and keep telling us about it.

That was an interesting video.
I especially liked the use of PSR to pick the primary contenders. Really very simple and straightforward.

May have to start some more coaching with you. As you said the game is very difficult these days. Im not getting killed but not able to say I'm winning either.

Have you found anything that looks strong enough to be profitable?

Not sure I understand.
Are you saying going to the front isn't important?

I'd also like to hear more about LEVERAGE POINTS.
Is that like a system? — No Moore

Not saying that going to the front isn't important. I'm saying that I never realized that so much handicapping depends on the horses who are going to the lead. Dave's got this theory and it seems to be true that when the early speed fails it invalidates a lot of the handicapping.

That looks pretty right to me, although I'd never have thought that was true.

LEVERAGE POINTS
That's about How do you explot what you believe about the race?

Putting the two together has made a big change in my results. Suppose I look at a race that has a strong 8-pnt front runner that figures to be well bet. The whole race comes down whether or not I think he can get the early lead.

If I decide that he probably can't or at least might not, then the next step is to decide how to leverage that. What Dave's convinced me to try is to take that LIKELY low odds loser and key him in the #2 position in exactas and in #2 & #3 in trifectas. The results have been astounding.

OTOH if he looks like he'll get the lead and he's got some other stuff going for him - including one very surprising NEGATIVE - then he's a single.

That's funny.
He may be systematic but not that systematic.

The newest stuff he's been teaching me is about this thing he calls Subset handicapping. I cant explain it all but Dave believes that when there are obvious horses that don't win, that is an indicator that the handicapping has failed. He then says if the handicapping has failed, why would you use that same handicapping to select your bets?

Very logical. and it changed everything I used to do. Some of the horses I've hit were completely unhandicappable. I mean there was no way you could pick these horses. Sometimes they pay $8 but other times they pay $40 or more.

The other thing that he got me to change was to look for a bet against horse in every race. But the weirdest thing is that this horse actually becomes THE KEY in exactas but only underneath!

So I toss the horse as a winner but key him to run 2nd!

Iit's because these horses lose so much money to win but run 2nd way more often than they should.

I certainly know who you are. In fact, I was at that seminar in Harrisburg when we first saw Handicapper's Notebook - I think it was. Might have been TB4 but I kind of missed that one.

Can you tell us more about the differences? — RanchWest

I checked with Dave about how much I am allowed to share of what he's taught me privately. He said that I was free to use my discretion, but not sure how far that really goes.

For years Dave has told me that most players think that the winning players are just like us. That they do the same things. That's what I always thought. If I could just do things a little better, I'd get to the other side of the river. That's one of those stories that dave tells. Never really liked it much and didn't really get it.

Then he goes on about how different the mindset is. Often uses you as an example, Tony. The River story is about there's like 1000 handicappers on one side of a river - the losers. And like 4 guys on the other side of the river. Those are the winners. He says that the losers don't believe there is anyone on the other side of the river. That there are no winners.

When someone talks about the other side of the river, people shout them down. He also says that THEY SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY.

The truth is that I liked how I handicapped. Even thou I was losing I was comfortable in what I was doing. I was an expert at it. LOL One day Dave says "You do realize that you're saying how proud you are to know so much that isn't working, right?" Boy, did I not like that.

Now I look back at it and see how much sooner I could have been winning if I'd just listened. He was right.

It's all about narrowing down to what's important. I think the big connection for me was when he challenged me to prove that my ideas were valid. Every single one of them failed. Like 2nd race after a layoff. Playing beat the favorite. Focusing on who is going to the front.

But the biggest change of all of them was when I started seeing what he calls LEVERAGE POINTS.

Basically, what's is my advantage?

Just telling it like it is.