• How will they run?
    One solid hit like that per day will keep you going. Nice score!
  • How will they run?
    Tony Kofalt
    Although maiden races are not my forte, I took a look at these. I found no reason to disagree with your strategy in race 1. Any of these could win. In race 4 ,I like your reasoning in taking the improving "Inkblot". It won't take much more improvement to outfoot the logical favorite Just a Nyquist. I did, however, give the inside horse, Valentia Island ,a long hard look ,mostly due to the strong connections and rider. She had an acceptable debut while staying close to the leaders in her debut, then a 5 month layoff . She came back in a sprint with a bit of a troubled trip. Now, after a shorter layoff and 5 works in the interim ,I have to think Castellano will have her close to today's pace, if not setting it. Personally, I'd have both "Inkblot" and "Valentia Island" as strong contenders on top with "Just a Nyquist" in close pusuit.
  • Grand River's Newest Handicapper
    Outstanding work Conley!
  • Congrats to Conley
    Enjoy the new job Conley and Best of LUCK !!
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Your top 4 mafe the super ,and close to exact order too!! Very good!
  • Researching negatives
    Recurrent troubled trips for jockeys might prove to be a sound downgrading factor.
  • Researching negatives
    You might be on to something with the negative information data . One of my angles involves an attribute which a contender does NOT have.
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Interesting...I have the 5 in the mix with your top 3 ..Thought I'd play it to win as well.
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Thanks for all of your work Conley!
  • How I handicap with minimal use of traditional past performances
    Sounds like you have a comprehensive handicapping strategy with a generous portion of thoughtful flexibility to account for the exceptions. Hope it continues to yield success for you!
  • Completely Different Styles!
    That was a good chuckle! Its my view that any race in which an individual can't find a play acceptable to them, is "unplayable" . I choose to pick my spots rather than playing every race but everyone has to find their own comfort level.
  • Racing in the old days
    I miss the old multi colored tickets.yellow $2, red $5 , purple $10 and Red and yellow $50 for the high rollers.
  • Is there anything New?
    You've made 2 good points. First, sharing info to a small group just makes it "local" knowledge. It wouldn't become "Common" knowledge until the entire community of players became aware of it. Second, many folks are reluctant to try something different for more than a few events to give it a real test. I think that an "Artful" methodology might fall into that category .
  • Is there anything New?
    You've captured my meaning perfectly! And explained it in a much more erudite manner.
    And, yes, it must be tested, but to remain effective(if it is) it must not become common knowledge...and if its faulty then we must continue to modify the approach.
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    As usual, its a HARD track to handicap! Thats what makes it interesting! Keep up your efforts Conley! It'll come together .
  • Is there anything New?
    Thank-you Dave. I do not disagree ! Of course data is data whether hard or soft.
    The point I was feebly attempting to convey was that we have access to soft data that can help with our final selections but often neglect its importance in identifying contenders that might be overlooked in the betting because of shortcomings in the "hard" data ranking . For me, this is the "fun" and "satisfying" part of handicapping. As to "good odds", my threshold of enthusiasm is about 9/2 but I'll gladly take as low as 2/1 in some circumstances . Generally, I'm just looking for contenders that aren't in the top 3 in the betting but ought to be but I'm not detered from betting if my pick is second or third in the betting at 3/1 or better .
  • Is there anything New?
    Is there anything new to discover?

    I think there’s still a lot as to what is prioritized and what is used together. There’s also a lot that is under-utilized.
    I think that the most under utilized thing is our own minds, our imagination. We can often become lost in the data and miss opportunities that arise in the roughly 30% of races that lie "outside the numbers. "
    Imagining alternative possible scenarios can be productive. Looking backward, I would guess that roughly 10% of all races would have been unhittable because the races were unplayable or the winners won only because of unpredictable events occurring during their running.That leaves 20% of winners at good odds that might have been playable given an alternative perspective to the data alone. We look at a 20% win percentage as very good for a horse,jockey or trainer so why would we want to omit this group from consideration?
    One simple ,practical demonstration of what I mean is to quickly handicap a race BEFORE considering the data . Ignore the speed and pace figures and focus on the running lines and the human connections and "imagine" a scenario in which each horse could win. THEN consult the data and compare results. Often they'll be similar but sometimes you'll find a nice overlay that just doesn't "seem to fit the numbers profile". Perhaps what I'm getting at, is the need to think about the race in addition to "calculating " it. Therein may lie that "something new to discover".
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Tending to personal matters. Leaves little time for pleasure.
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Good luck today Conley!