Comments

  • What should an odds line be?
    @RanchWest
    We can hope the collapse ends at a concentration around a few large tracks, but new fans still need to be generated. They are the fuel that makes this big engine run.
  • What should an odds line be?
    @Dave SchwartzYes, you are right but the fact that you think the smaller swings are going to allow you to use the old make-a-line-and-bet-into-it approach."
    I actually don't use, nor have I ever used an odds line . Finding which contenders will likely take the most action is plenty good enough for my purposes.
  • What should an odds line be?
    @RanchWest
    I'm sure you're absolutely right !
    But the less money that the other 99.999% of players put in the pools and the more small,high rebate tracks that go under , the more the $80 million per week that they push through the system will inevitably and necessarily shrink.
  • What should an odds line be?
    Dave Schwartz
    232
    Wait...
    Are you speaking of their bet size relative to:
    A. Total Pool size (i.e. they're eating their own profit). Yes ,that's what I thought would limit them to some degree ..It means , effectively, that the more pools shrink the less they can bet effectively.
    The "Liability threshold" is the point at which the anticipated returns are virtually guaranteed to show a significant loss.
    My previous queries had more to do with odds "movement" than the odds line. I'm wondering how much of the "late" money that is not whale money effects those movements.
  • What should an odds line be?
    @RanchWest
    "Liability" is the risk factor for failure.
  • What should an odds line be?
    @Dave Schwartz
    Thanks for your time Dave . After crunching, and understanding your numbers you've given me my answer. Clearly the track rebate is critical when choosing which one to play. Picking a high rebate track will mean bucking huge off swings by the 56.7% of whale generated "late" money. While at SA they only influence the odds to the tune of 22.2% of the "late" money.
  • What should an odds line be?
    @Dave Schwartz
    So whales make ALL of their win bets "late"?
  • What should an odds line be?
    @Dave Schwartz
    You misunderstood but answered anyway!
    I was definitely looking for the percentage of the "late" money . I'm wondering how they calculate their bet sizing when they don't know the final pool totals . I would have thought that they'd have a "liability threshold" , a % of the total pool, beyond which they would be at severe risk. Perhaps my assumption that their bet sizes were predicated upon the dollar amounts already in the pools.
  • What should an odds line be?
    @Dave Schwartz
    Just a few questions regarding the Whales ,odds drops and ADW users.
    We see that in @20% of races at all track sizes, the win pool increases by 20/40% from 30sec to post to the off. In the other 80% of races ,the win pool increases by 100/120% in that same time frame. What percentage of that final wagering amount do you think might be "whale "money and how much is due to late betting from online ADWs & OTBs ?
    Next question is about rebates. Where does the money for rebates originate? Is it money that would otherwise be given to the tracks and horsemen? We often hear that on track betting generates far more for these groups than off track betting .
    I have some speculation on both of these matters but,given your knowledge and expertise in this area,
    I'd like to hear your thoughts .
  • What should an odds line be?
    @RanchWest
    Think you're exactly right. The probability line is a strong indicator of where the money might land and should be useful when deciding whether or not to shift to a "possibility".
  • Have you ever?
    @RanchWest
    It's exciting to see you delving into the realm of "What If". The realm of the "possible" rather than the "probable". It seems that our imagination is the one factor that cannot be quantified..
  • Win Parlays vs Pick N
    Dustin Korth
    49
    Anyone ever done any analysis on this? I was just wondering if Kentucky's move to penny breakage would have enough impact to create situations where this is worth considering.
    11hReplyOptions
    . In my view, the parlay is always preferable to the P3+, and sometimes preferable to the DD. You're able to pick your spots and avoid buying tickets that are "automatic losers"
  • Fair win odds theory
    Dustin Korth
    48
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay.
    7h
    Just bet the expected best odds horse !When "dutching" multiple outcomes you're still playing just a single event and must calculate your received odds based on your TOTAL wager .In this instance ,assuming that the final odds remain the same ,your best result is 7/2 if the 8/1 shot wins (or3/2 if the 4/1 wins) and even less if you "weight" your wagers. Is that still an overlay? This amounts to betting to "not lose" rather than betting to win.
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    Interesting insights might include common races for more than one competitor, troubled trips not mentioned in the trouble line, an alternate view of the likely pace scenario , mentions of jockey /trainer proclivities and/or skills or track bias comments. The list is long!
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    In defence of Andy Serling, he'll be the first to admit that he'd rather not make selections in every race but is obliged to do so by his job description. He does ,however, sometimes offer interesting insights that players might have overlooked. For my money ,the best shows offer such information in detail for select races and not for a whole card. Many races are best left unplayed.
  • Grand River's Newest Handicapper
    You're still rocking them Conley!!
  • Approach
    It seems that you've found the solution to your "too many plays" problem. Passing races in which we have a poor win rate or which we find confusing can only help to boost our win rate and profit.. Personally, I tried to play only those races in which I had a strong and "articulatable" opinion.
  • Grand River's Newest Handicapper
    ⁰Yep I see that now stupid me thanks for keeping me in check my good friend
    No worries! We all have moments when we're a bit off our concentration. This is an excellent example of the need for precision in entering the data when compiling statistics. Even a single error can lead to large errors in the final results. You're doing good work ! Just stay vigilant!
  • Grand River's Newest Handicapper
    158 +2 = 160 ..not 200..
  • Grand River's Newest Handicapper
    158/403 on 9/12 , then 200/412 on 9/14.
    9 races increased your total by 42