I construct my PP’s by importing data from Access to Excel — Jack Price

Well done, Jack!

I use Harbour to read BRIS data (Multicaps) into a dBase file, then use Harbour to write to an HTML file because I like the versatility of the output, though it is very labor intensive to write the code. I do end up with my key handicapping factors in one section. I can "quick handicap" entirely from there, but I have many sections that I can reference from a drop-down menu in case there's something I want to do a deep dive on. The downside is that it is not easy to hide or scratch horses, though I can accomplish it in a little bit of a cumbersome way. Right now the quick capping section is displayed in odds line sequence, but I am working on making each column sortable.

Wow!! Very nice. A lot of data there. Like the color coding. But I see the point of your original post. — Jim Pommier

Thanks. I didn't show the top portion because it is pretty standard, mostly the common data.

1. I use BRIS. From what I've read, horses with a +6, +10, etc Prime Power point advantage win at a very high percentage (of course many times at very low odds like 1-2). How to play? Many do not look vulnerable but still get beat.
2. How to play small 5 and 6 horse fields where you land on the 8-5 and 2-1. Always separate using jockey/trainer (and other factors), or Dutch? Also, happens in 7+ horse fields, then Dutch? — Jim Pommier

1. BRIS Prime Power is very strong for finding the best horses in the race. The key is that the best horse doesn't always win. We have to find vulnerable horses when they exist and recognize the real deal when it exists. The factors most people use for vulnerable are actually indicators of the best horse. So, the public stays on the best horse. Generally, the fastest path to a vulnerable horse is the pace scenario. Admittedly, sometimes I pick a little loosely, but I question horses too deep into their form cycle and horses that are not distance specialists. Sometimes those work for me, sometimes they don't.
2. Most of the winners I see have good speed and/or pace figures unless the pace falls apart. The fact that there is a good jockey or trainer is just a natural correlation, but it isn't a mandatory thing. You'll usually get a better price if there's not a leading jock and/or trainer. I'm not good enough at dutching to address that.

Maybe we can give this topic a thread of its own in a few days.

I don't know how to directly put in a screenshot, but here is a file that shows a portion of the running lines of today's 4th race at CD for the winner, #1, Hawk of War. Hopefully I've done this correctly.

I'm thinking time and money. To build a program to look at factors in multiple ways and to run data in something 3-dimensional versus one horse at a time would take a lot of time and money. I don't think individual horseplayers have either. If they did, do they want to commit to that kind of investment. Finally, can you build something that will work and is profitable? — Jim Pommier

I'm not suggesting that you have to roll your own. When I get a chance, I will start a thread on a more modern approach. For now, I'll just say that today there are several sophisticated programs out there. And, Dave is about to release a new program. And, no, this is not intended to be a commercial for Dave. Just for the concept of a modern approach. I do know that Dave understands a lot about the data and the process, but I will let him sell his stuff.

How do these pp's look? post a screenshot! — Mark

I'm not trying to sell my PP's. I'm trying to convey that no matter how good they are, they are not enough. They're still looking at one horse at a time.

Ranchwest
It sounds like you have crafted a wonderfully efficient system that works well for you. Personally, I prefer the traditional PPs. They're all I've known over the years and I find it quite easy to separate the relevant from the irrelevant information ( if anything,they provide too much info) . — William Zayonce

The proof is in the pudding. If you are successful with PP's, that's what is important.

I think you are right about too much info. My worksheet has 28 columns and that includes 3 columns of odds, horse name and program #. While I do sometimes look at other data, the 28 columns are pretty much what I need to handicap a race. But there's a lot of computations behind the columns.

Slim, this is sounding to me like it may be a really good deal. You may want to see how this unfolds before concluding that it does not have value.

Just to clarify, when I make the elimination to closers, I already have a calculation for that, so I look at it as more of a filter than handicapping because I don't have to calculate or evaluate on the spot.

Working.

I am getting the same error.

Thanks, RanchWest. The Derby sure felt like a chaotic race to my bankroll! :)) — Atakante

As a wise man once told me, turn the page.

Price too low? There may be an exotics option.

In short, value and profit go hand-in-hand and is based around winners. We're all going to lose races, but losing doesn't provide much value. So, we need to learn which situations win and which don't.

Primarily three ways:

1) Find the vulnerable favorites

2) Find the longshot setups, which often has to do with pace scenarios, such as chaos.

3) Embrace the solid horses even if the price is low.

By the way, I am not suggesting that all races should be played from the top 3 odds horses. I am just saying that is where most winners will come from. Like, with the races above, 4 winners came from the 5th odds line horse and above. That's about 15%. That might give an idea of a reasonable distribution of selections in the long haul.

I reviewed all of the races at PRX, TDN and FL today, 27 races. The winners as ranked in my odds line were as follows:

Ranked 1: 9
Ranked 2: 7
Ranked 3: 5
Ranked 4: 2
Ranked below 4: 4

So, it is mostly a matter of picking the right one from the odds line. I didn't do very well at that today. The finish of my win selections:

Winners: 7
Place: 6
Show: 8
Out: 6

The concept is not perfect, but it is a good jump into the fray.

Race 10 at CD, 5/7/22

There is a thread called Tom's Ultimate Odds Line. I hope there's still a Windows program there that uses files based around the BRIS single file format (including Multicaps files) and maybe other files. The last release had an additional computation formulated incorrectly and may have been withdrawn. Let me know what you find. I think Tom had released a spreadsheet. If you can't find anything, try the best odds line that you have. The idea is to begin with the favorites, which win so many races, and then see if you find a valid reason to abandon those. I think one of my problems was that I was always looking for the slightly higher odds horses, 4/1 or 5/1 or so, instead of accepting that a 2/1 horse can be a good bet. Yesterday, I thought Jackie's Warrior was a good bet at even money. He looked great on paper and on the track.

The objective is to make a profit. I say well done.