Well, the idea of the DTOP itself is that something has just been taken out of the horse and regression is expected. By tracking all of them, I hope to either confirm or expel a few different theories:

Layoff
Premise: When a horse puts out a peak performance, they need healing time before they can run back without a regression.
Test: Do we see higher regression rates off DTOPs for horses racing back quicker than those coming off an acceptable layoff (60 days perhaps?)

Sex
Premise: I’ve read that in general males have stronger group herd dynamics and weaker individual herd dynamics and females vice versa. Meaning a male horse will over-exert itself to beat the herd but a female will contain herself more to preventing tiring/injury.
Test: Do female runners break through DTOPs more often while male runners regress off DTOPs more often?

Age/Career Races
Premise: Younger or lightly-raced horses do not yet have a ceiling established so we don’t know where their “true DTOP” lies.
Test: Do lightly-raced runners break through DTOPs more often than established horses. We should be able to find a defined range where a horse stops being “lightly-raced” and becomes “established.” (4 races perhaps?)

Perhaps other categories to look at will catch the eye as well.

From this, I’m hoping we can start to identify “ideal vulnerable favorites” that fit the sweet spot (if there is one) in each category.

And if it’s starting to look inconclusive after doing it for a while, so be it. I move on to something else.

Ok now that BC is over I can start tracking on my original post about DTOPs.

One other thought is that it seems the true goal should be to find vulnerable post-time favorites rather than morning line favorites. After all, the track handicapper's opinion means nothing in regard to our pursuit to beat the public's opinion which solely decides payout.

So with that said, I'll track all DTOPs daily then only take post-time favorites into consideration for result tracking.

I have 30 DTOPs on Wednesday but for the sake of this thread, here's the actual morning line favorites of them:
11/10
CD6 #4 Vidal 5/2
CD8 #5 Front Street 7/5
IND5 #2 Rooster Run 9/5

I'm on Malathaat in the Distaff and Art Collector tonight. Good luck everyone.

At the end of the day, it's not even about blaming the vet, stewards, track, or anyone involved.

The enabling problem is the racing boards that establish these rules designed to protect the track when THEY make a mistake and transfer all liability to the bettor.

There are no words to describe what just happened.

The angle: A race does one of two things: puts something into a horse or takes something out of a horse. We're looking for morning line favorites that had it taken out of them by triggering what we call a DTOP (double top) where they ran their best career half mile split as well as final figure (based on the 4F and Final pace figs that I use). They also must be racing less than 60 days rest and have 4 races under their belt.

I'll try to keep up with this daily and see how it does.

Ind 6 - #1 Chandana 2/1
Prx 8 - #3 Rose E Holiday 7/2

Conley, I might join but won't know until it gets closer.

I love point #2 Tony. It's a long-term game and you have to look back to make sure you understand why you won so you can make it a habit and also understand why you lost so you can adapt and grow. Cheers.

That menu is available on every card.

I probably made it sound like more work than it is. Workout reports are actually a very small factor overall in my capping. Just a quick assessment...is this comment an edge or generic? There's a good handful of times where I found clocker reports that anchored a big score but definitely not an every race or even every day thing. Let them give you a runner here and there and stick to your primary handicapping otherwise.

As for storytime, I also am not good at all with physically reading runners. I was once on the fence watching a post parade and when the #3 walked by with ears flopped completely to the side, I told everyone that horse is lame and I'll quit horse racing if he wins. I lied because he paid 17/1 gate-to-wire and I'm still playing, lol.

I like to classify workout comments as subjective or objective. Does this observation directly point to a positive/negative? Or does it create a flowchart of positive/negative possibilities?

Objective-
Clockers observed that Exaggerator blew the turn in his final prep for the Belmont Stakes. After a grueling campaign with 2nd/1st finishes in the Derby/Preakness, this would be a sign the horse is fatigued a high percentage of the time. If you did the work to check clocker reports, you were much more prepared on Belmont Day than the public when they made him the favorite and he finished 11th.

Subjective-
Take a runner that had his head high throughout the final workout before a race. A couple reasons can cause this but Clocker #1 and #2 followers will have very different results:
#1 - horse ran with head high, often a sign of soreness or injury, fade this one.
#2 - horse ran with head high, often a sign of uncomfortable equipment, should run fine on race day with that fixed.
The problem here is this creates a flowchart where not only could 2 clockers have opposite assessments but even those individual assessments could split off separate ways as well. Clocker #1 says he's "injured or sore"...Well If he's injured it's a negative but if he's sore, it could be either. There's a possibility he just needs an extra week for his tendons to heal and boom...he runs well on race day...or he remains sore and doesn't. It's a "Flowchart Comment" and it's just throwing darts.