Oaklawn Park
12.18.2021

R1: 2-7*-6
Results: 2-6-1
2 @ .9 $3.80 $2.80 $2.40
6 @ 6.1 $0.00 $4.60 $3.60
2-6 Exacta $9.30
VF did not win

R2: 8-4-9
Results: 7-11-5

R3: 9**-8-4
Results: 8-6-5
8 @ 16.8 $35.60 $12.20 $6.20
SF did not win

R4: 8**-7-5
Results: 6-5-8
5 @ 12.5 $0.00 $8.00 $4.00
8 @ 1.2 $0.00 $0.00 $2.40
SF did not win

R5: 4-2-5
Results: 5-10-4
5 @ 3.8 $9.60 $5.00 $3.60
4 @ 3.1 $0.00 $0.00 $2.80

R6: 5-6-3
Results: 3-8-6
3 @ 1.3 $4.60 $3.80 $3.20
6 @ 8.7 $0.00 $0.00 $4.40

R7: 7**-6-4
Results: 6-2-8
6 @ 2.1 $6.20 $4.00 $2.40
SF did not win

R8: 7-8*-2
Results: 7-1-2
7 @ 1.3 $4.60 $3.20 $2.40
2 @ 5.6 $0.00 $0.00 $3.40
VF scratched

R9: 2**-7-6
Results: 2-6-3
2 @ 1.8 $5.60 $3.60 $2.80
6 @ 4.8 $0.00 $4.60 $3.80
2-6 Exacta $15.50
SF won

R10: 4-12-5
Results: 4-5-6
4 @ 4.4 $10.80 $4.80 $4.00
5 @ 1.5 $0.00 $3.20 $2.80
4-5 Exacta $15.00

Summary
Top pick 3 for 10 – 30%
$ won $19.20
$ Bet $20.00
$ Return -$0.80

Top 2 picks 6 for 10 – 60%
$ won $60.00
$ Bet $40.00
$ Return $20.00

Top 3 picks 8 for 10 – 80%
$ won $74.20
$ Bet $60.00
$ Return $14.20

2 Day Summary
Top pick 6 for 19 – 31.6%
$ won $31.60
$ Bet $38.00
$ Return -$6.40

Top 2 picks 11 for 19 – 57.9%
$ won $87.60
$ Bet $76.00
$ Return $11.60

Top 3 picks 14 for 19 – 73.7%
$ won $113.40
$ Bet $105.00
$ Return $8.40

Only one race a pick did not finish in the money.

Let's try version 1.9

Added ML and used trainer win percentage instead of average class last 3 races.

As always, let me know if and when you find a bug.

Oaklawn Park
12.18.2021

R1: 2-7*-6

R2: 8-4-9

R3: 9**-8-4

R4: 8**-7-5

R5: 4-2-5

R6: 5-6-3

R7: 7**-6-4

R8: 7-8*-2

R9: 2**-7-6

R10: 4-12-5

* Vulnerable ML Favorite
** Strong ML Favorite

Oaklawn Park
12.17.21

R1: 3-6*-4
Results: 1-4-2
4 @ 1.9 – 1 $0.00 $4.20 $3.20
VF did not win

R2: 5-1**-6
Results: 5-3-1
5 @ 0.6 – 1 $3.20 $2.80 $2.10
SF did not win

R3: 6*-9-8
Results: 6-7-1
6 @ 1.3 – 1 $4.60 $3.00 $2.40
VF won

R4: 2-4*-6
Results: 1-2-4
2 @ 5.2 – 1 $0.00 $5.40 $3.40
4 @ 3.7 – 1 $0.00 $0.00 $2.40
VF did not win

R5: 5**-7-6
Results: 7-1-2
7 @ 4.1 – 1 $10.20 $5.20 $2.60
SF did not win

R6: 4-7*-8
Results: 4-7-6
4 @ 1.3 – 1 $4.60 $2.40 $2.20
7 @ 1.1 – 1 $0.00 $2.40 $2.10
4-7 Exacta $4.30
VF did not win

R7: 6-2-10-8
Results: 5-2-10
2 @ 11.5 – 1 $0.00 $7.80 $4.80
10 @16.3 – 1 $0.00 $0.00 $5.60

R8: 4**-7-2
Results: 7-4-5
7 @ 1.5 – 1 $5.00 $2.60 $2.60
4 @ 2.1 – 1 $0.00 $2.60 $2.40
7-4 Exacta $5.90
SF did not win

R9: 4-5*-10
Results: 10-1-5
10 @ 4.8 – 1 $11.60 $8.40 $5.40
5 @ 3.8 – 1 $0.00 $0.00 $3.60
VF did not win

Summary
Top pick 3 for 9 - 33.3%
$ Won $12.40
$Bet $18.00
$Return -$5.60

Top 2 picks 5 for 9 – 55.5%
$ Won $27.60
$Bet $36.00
$Return -$8.40

Top 3 picks 6 for 9 - 66.6%
$ Won $39.20
$Bet $45.00
$Return -$5.80

5 VF picked, only 1 won, 80% VF
Crowning achievement: Had at least one pick in the money every race

Jim, that's a good idea. It may be a day or two before I get back into this one but it looks like:

Adding the ML column
Using trainer win percentage instead of ACL3.

I'm interested too so let's see.

Modeling is far outside the scope of what I intended this project to be so nix this idea.

And, like trainer win percentage, morning line could also be substituted.

Trainer win percentage would be an easy substitution. We just need to maybe get a consensus.

I'm pretty sure I've seen most of those in the "Practical Handicapping" workshop. When Dave says "High level", he means "complicated formula, but not outside the scope of a spreadsheet handicapper".

PMPM+

R1: 3-6*-4

R2: 5-1**-6

R3: 6*-9-8

R4: 2-4*-6

R5:5**-7-6

R6: 4-7*-8

R7: 6-2-10-8

R8: 4**-7-2

R9: 4-5*-10

* Vulnerable ML Favorite
** Strong ML Favorite
+ Purely Mechanical Picking Methodology - Based on OPX "What's Winning" model.

And Ultimate is spelled Ultimate, not ulitmate. Spelllng was never my strung soot.

I needed to put all of this down in one place anyway.

Column headers are ranks of:

ML_20 MORNING LINE ODDS
PT_21 POST TIME ODDS
PRIMEP_22 PRIME POWER
QES_23 QUIRIN EARLY SPEED
PES_24 PANDOLFO EARLY SPEED LAST RACE ONLY
EPACE_25 OTHER CALCULATED EARLY PACE, BEST 3 OF LAST 4
LPACE_26 OTHER CALCULATED LATE PACE, BEST 3 OF LAST 4
LRS_27 LAST RACE SPEED
BL2_28 SUM OF BEATEN LENGTHS LAST 4 RACES
B_365_29 BEST SPEED IN LAST 365 DAYS
HI_SPD_30 IMPROVE DECLINE BEST SPEED
LO_SPD_31 IMPROVE DECLINE LOW SPEED
FW_SPD_32 FW SPEED
Q_2nd_CALL_33 QUALIFIED SECOND CALL, LIKE FULCRUM BUT LOOKS AT LAST 2 RACES
SAR_34 SARTIN FPS COMBINATION
TR/JO_35 TRAINER JOCKEY COMBINES WIN PERCENTAGE
TRN_36 TRAINER WIN PERCENTAGE
JOC_37 JOCKEY WIN PERCENTAGE
TRN_SPEC_38 TRAINER SPECIALITY
WO_39 HIDDEN WEAPON RATING BASED ON LAST WORKOUT
TD_APV_40 TIME DELAYED APV
CURYR_APV_41 CURRENT YEAR APV
PREYR_APV_42 PREVIOUS YEAR APV
COMBYR_APV_43 COMBINED YEAR APV
DIST_APV_44 DISTANCE APV
TRK_APV_45 TRACK APV
DIRT_APV_46 DIRT APV
TURF_APV_47 TURF APV
ALLW_APV_48 ALL WEATHER APV
GR%_49 GOOD RACE PERCENTAGE
QES78_50 TOP Q EARLY SPEED OF 7 OR 8
QES56_51 TOP Q EARLY SPEED OF 5 OR 6
QES34_52 TOP Q EARLY SPEED OF 3 OR 4
E1LR_53 - E1 LAST RACE
E2LR_54 E2 LAST RACE
LPLR_55 LATE PACE LAST RACE
AVG_CLS_L3_56 AVERAGE CLASS LAST 3 RACES

It appears that the $1 DRF files do not include the BRIS CLASS rating per race but the $5 multicaps files do. $5 Yikes.

I'm open to changing the class requirements to something included in the $1 file if someone can come up with a good idea.

And I did get that PRIME POWER bug fixed. Fix is in V1.7 zipped up below.

Well, it's Tom's concept.

You would think that I would have caught that?!

That DRF file does not contain class ratings.

And which data file are you using? .drf, .eg, .mcp, .pcs, .jcp????

Jim, SAX1215?

And that's why we have this thread.

The ALC3 column uses the last three class ratings. I'm not sure all the BRIS files contain that information. If your data file does not contain these ratings, then it will not compute the ALC3.

Let me look at the other items.

OPX 12.3.21 thru 12.12.21 Dirt Routes

OPX 12.3.21 thru 12.12.21 Dirt Sprints