Thanks, Rich. Do you use the published running style (E,E/P,P, etc.)? Do you model any similar information? I know some people model the %M off of their pace line. — RanchWest

Sorry, I've been gone for a couple of weeks,

No. I use a slight variation on Dave's ESx object plus his approach from Understanding Early Speed.

I definitely believe in biases but learned a long time ago that the make up of the race has a lot to do with who wins.

A race with 4 front runners does not have the same likelihood of a front runner winning as an race with no front runners. Therefore, you need multiple models for each distance and pace pressure.

Back in the 1990's I used The Handicapper's Notebook software. At had this feature that looked at post position with early speed points. Took about a cool bias!

It showed that an inside post could be a big positive for a closer and a big negative for a front runner!

Running style means so much in building a model.

Plus you got to make some money off the product. :grin:

Sorry about that, but it did work for you.
:lol:

Remember that, Rich? — Dave Schwartz

Of course.
Then you built a product from it - which is not in the store any more. I forget the name of it but the lessons were great.

My experience is that winning players - and especially professional players - absolutely do share what they do.

After all, if WINNING PLAYERS really are that smart (and we are), how would anyone know if information wasn't shared? — Dave Schwartz

Summed it up perfectly.

But Dave - just remember that trolls can be fun.

I'm here to see if anybody is smarter than me.....or has stuff unforeseen in past 40 years — HorseSense

Dave always asks the big question - "Are you a winning player, then?"

Instead of telling us how smart you are, how about you show us some of those smarts?

@Colty

It is. Thanks for noticing.

Also, have you seen this blog post? — Dave Schwartz

You beat me to it.

When I first started, it was with Sartin's stuff. That was a great age and I seemed to do well from time to time, but just never seemed to make much real profit.

When I added running style based on how the horse actually ran instead of how he projected to run, that changed everything.

I think the 1st Dave S seminar I went to was about 92 or 93. I remember that he put up an example with a horse that was entered for $10k but had once been a $50k claimer. The horse had these huge numbers and they all said that the horse would just demolish the field right from the gate.

Dave showed that the profile of the race was definitely EP. He also showed that this horse had never been near the lead in his life, and numbers or not, it was unlikely he'd start today.

If that was true, if it really happened that way, this 2/5 favorite was a likely loser. My entire belief system was based upon the numbers. This horse had the numbers, and I bet the race, keying that 2/5 shot over my other contenders.

When that 2/5 horse didn't get within 5 lengths of the gate-to-wire winner until deep stretch, I was instantly sure that I'd just learned a valuable lesson. Missing the obvious $52 winner hurt, but in the end, that lesson turned me into a professional player.

In my handicapping, early/late energy will never replace running style.

Playing Against Low Odds Horses
The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race. — Dave Schwartz

How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST?