Comments

  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    Tom is a very intuitive player. I have no idea how he does at the windows but I have to believe he's a winner
  • Picking Losers is the Best Whale Killer
    Thanks Dave. I recall this or similar research from a few years ago. It's amazing how much solid information is forgotten when you resume your regular handicapping.
  • Suggested Plays
    Last wager= +152.50
    Total wagered- $866.50
    Total Collected- $527.80
    Profit/Loss- -328.70

    Belmont 5-20
    Race 6 $2 P4 1,6 with 5,6 with 1,7,8,9 with 6
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav for Belmont 5-19
    Race 3- My Delicious (5-2)- On form filly has finished 2nd in 4 consecutive starts. I see a few pricey sleepers in here which could result in well-paying horizontal gimmicks
  • Preakness trivia
    That was fun to read Tim. Good job
  • How I handicap with minimal use of traditional past performances
    Off the turf races in NY today ran to form. Extremely low payouts.
  • Is there anything New?

    I can't say that I have any data to support that. When I come across a vulnerable favorite I have to make a decision, Do I ignore him on all my horizontal tickets or do I include him as a B level horse if I have strong opinions in other legs? Seldom do I believe a vulnerable fav can't win but it's that I think he will be overbet based on the way I see a race playing out. Sorry as I dont believe I had the answer you were looking for.
  • Racing in the old days

    Ranch, I believe it says a lot about our ruling bodies in general. I am in shock at the lack of knowledge possessed by our regulators. Incompetency, different state rules, etc all lead to a product that appears to lack integrity. I could go on and on and on about this
  • Is there anything New?
    There are some outstanding thoughts being exchanged here! Now this is what a handicapping forum is all about.
    I agree 100% that we have to be 'different' from the whales to uncover opportunities that they may miss. They play a highly sophisticated game that overcomes the take. And they are assisted by tools like batch wagering that most of us can't afford access to. So how do we compete?
    • Here are some ideas:
    • Make your game more artsy. Avoid commonly used paceline selection methods like 2 best of last 3. Instead, don't be afraid to select multiple pacelines, weigh them differently and perhaps factor in subtle changes to them.
    • Always project improvement or decline in a horses form. I'm not recommending wild swings but something different than the last performance.
    • Build and maintain something exclusive to yourself. Perhaps notes about prior races that are not widely available. Not just about the slow start that everyone else saw but maybe the pack position a runner found themselves in that is different than normal.
    • Focus on a few venues and become expects there. You will find nuggets of data that are not available to the general public.
    Any feedback is appreciated
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    Wow- I never saw CJ's performances before. Thanks.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    According to a quick internet search it is the same product. Good job Tom
  • Racing in the old days


    The shut down the pay phone rule was still in the Pa Horse racing commission rules as recently as 2015. I believed it disappeared sometime after that. That speaks volumes about our ruling body.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Not familiar with Equisim Ranch. I remember a sheet like product that a friend of mine used. If memory serves me correctly it was owned by Cary Fotius. It incorporated pace into the final numbers. It was named Equi 'something' lol
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Has anyone ever tried Thorograph? Can you offer any comments on the layout and the data presented? How do you deal with pace in the product? Just curious
  • Suggested Plays
    Belmont 5-15
    Belmont race 2
    50 cent P4- 3 with 2,7,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,4,8
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Belmont 5-15
    Race 2- Act Like Artie- several in here have competitive projected figs. Can take a low price in open event
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    Dave, I can't say that I do like the plot approach. I just presented it as an alternative to RanchWest topic here. The position of the squares and circles are based on numeric ratings. The product suite also presents the numeric data in a spreadsheet.
  • RS out of Preakness
    IMO- it's hard to criticize a trainer for opting to give a horse a little more rest between starts, especially if they fully intend to run him back in a few more weeks. I applaud having the guts to skip the Preakness when industry pressure exists.
    From a fans and Pimlico's perspective it would be great to have an opportunity for a Triple Crown winner.
  • Woodbine TB 2022 Selections Thread
    Conley- thanks for the work you have done with your selections!! Can I ask if you are manually handicapping every race of using an automated method of making your selections? Thanks