Vulnerable fav for Belmont 5-19
Race 3- My Delicious (5-2)- On form filly has finished 2nd in 4 consecutive starts. I see a few pricey sleepers in here which could result in well-paying horizontal gimmicks
I can't say that I have any data to support that. When I come across a vulnerable favorite I have to make a decision, Do I ignore him on all my horizontal tickets or do I include him as a B level horse if I have strong opinions in other legs? Seldom do I believe a vulnerable fav can't win but it's that I think he will be overbet based on the way I see a race playing out. Sorry as I dont believe I had the answer you were looking for.
Ranch, I believe it says a lot about our ruling bodies in general. I am in shock at the lack of knowledge possessed by our regulators. Incompetency, different state rules, etc all lead to a product that appears to lack integrity. I could go on and on and on about this
There are some outstanding thoughts being exchanged here! Now this is what a handicapping forum is all about.
I agree 100% that we have to be 'different' from the whales to uncover opportunities that they may miss. They play a highly sophisticated game that overcomes the take. And they are assisted by tools like batch wagering that most of us can't afford access to. So how do we compete?
Here are some ideas:
Make your game more artsy. Avoid commonly used paceline selection methods like 2 best of last 3. Instead, don't be afraid to select multiple pacelines, weigh them differently and perhaps factor in subtle changes to them.
Always project improvement or decline in a horses form. I'm not recommending wild swings but something different than the last performance.
Build and maintain something exclusive to yourself. Perhaps notes about prior races that are not widely available. Not just about the slow start that everyone else saw but maybe the pack position a runner found themselves in that is different than normal.
Focus on a few venues and become expects there. You will find nuggets of data that are not available to the general public.
Not familiar with Equisim Ranch. I remember a sheet like product that a friend of mine used. If memory serves me correctly it was owned by Cary Fotius. It incorporated pace into the final numbers. It was named Equi 'something' lol
Dave, I can't say that I do like the plot approach. I just presented it as an alternative to RanchWest topic here. The position of the squares and circles are based on numeric ratings. The product suite also presents the numeric data in a spreadsheet.
IMO- it's hard to criticize a trainer for opting to give a horse a little more rest between starts, especially if they fully intend to run him back in a few more weeks. I applaud having the guts to skip the Preakness when industry pressure exists.
From a fans and Pimlico's perspective it would be great to have an opportunity for a Triple Crown winner.