Does this approach work on races with many starters like the Kentucky Derby? For instance, was the Mine That Bird derby a chaos race? — Atakante

The rating for this race was 5.000, very much a chaos potential with 3.2 and above being potential chaos. But it might take several Derby races to establish any sort of pattern.

Do they lower the takeout for the Derby? :lol:

Posted my picks today. Had a very small profit on the day, hit for a lower percentage, 31%. Not every day is spectacular, but the process carried me through.

So if we have 3 lines to sort/weigh, might using a Fibonocci be useful?
Good thread! — Tom

Ted Craven told me how to compute CSR, Composite Speed Rating, which is the speed ratings of the last four races, time decayed through Fibonacci. So, I implemented that for BRIS speed numbers.

Well, I am always tinkering, so I applied the same concept to BRIS pace figures.

I tend to not trust individual numbers and computations... I look at things a lot of different ways and see if they all jive or what the outliers are. So, I take these Composite Pace Ratings (CPR? ha!) and compare them to other pace numbers, such as pace line Early Pace and Late Pace. Once I also look at %Median, %Median for the field, Quirin speed points, etc., I start to get an idea of what the pace should look like.

But, it seems to me, that this still doesn't accomplish what Tony is doing, looking at the actual time line for the form cycle. That concept really interests me.

As baseball manager Johnny Oates said, "Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet."

Another baseball quote I like is from Stan Musial. When asked his secret to being a great hitter, he replied, "Wait for your pitch and swing hard."

You're making me blush, Tony. I'm just a guy who is plagued by questions for which I seek valid answers.

It's a pretty subjective process for me right now. — Tony Kofalt

So, I assume your extensive experience guides you in making these calls, correct?

I find that usually use 3 pacelines each weighed a little differently based on the way I feel the form cycle is moving. This is a great thread — Tony Kofalt

Is that something you are doing through HSH? Is there some automation involved in the form cycle weights or is that pretty much subjective?

Ranch that is AWESOME. Enjoyed the fact that you found YOUR way and are willing to share it! — Biniak

Thanks. The important part of this is that it was a fairly simple tweak to my process. I was lost in the desert and didn't fully comprehend that I was.

By the way, I had at least 5 horses run 2nd. So, that's at least 16 of 21 in 1st or second. All from just a consistent, simple structure of process. The process is what I was lacking. Makes a huge difference. I had been just starting SOMEWHERE and ending SOMEWHERE. I can tell you, that doesn't work... at least it definitely doesn't for me.

Pretty much the short version of all I know is above. But it is the short version and I will gladly share as time permits. My speed analysis and pace analysis is actually quite a bit more detailed.

Great info, Tony!

A feature we need in The Studio. — Dave Schwartz

It sure seems like a good feature. Jockeys generally have a style, just like horses do.

Thanks, Tom.

Thanks, Dave! You always follow through.

#6 I am showing .75 back.
#5 I am showing 1.75 back.

Sorry I am being a pest, but what I have learned from you is helping me so much that I don't want to misunderstand this. In a few days I am going to post about my journey.

Okay, I'm lost. I don't understand how the two example horses earned a G for the races marked. There's something I don't understand here.

(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.) — Dave Schwartz

I'm trying to follow along. Should that be 2 lengths? And maybe 3 in a route?

.but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner — Dustin Korth

Good point, Dustin. I think this is where the art of handicapping comes into play. I think one thing that helps is to look at recent composite speed ratings and compare those to the pace line speed rating. it's also good to note the points at which the horse was claimed. And, which race off the last layoff. Lots of stuff available to make me look foolish. lol

Rich, interesting.