I struck out on R3. 2-5.

R3, at 12 MTP, the 2 is the favorite. Huh? I like 5-4-1.

R2 was interesting. The longest morning line horse went off as the favorite and won. Looked to run well up the stretch and didn't disappoint.

R1 ran 6-2, with 6 at 1-5.

In R4, scratch #8, #12, #13. Twinspires is still showing 14 and 15 in, but they are MTO and turf is showing Firm.

Race 1: My automated line has 6-1-3-2-4-5 and I think that is a good line. On paper, the 6 gets the nod over the 1. I rank the firsters fairly close. The problem in wagering is that if the 6 fails, the 1 could run a good race. But if the 6 runs well, then I toss the 1 and go with 2 and 3 as my alternates. I'm inclined to lean toward the 6 returning well.

Race 4: If they're on turf, my automated line has 4-5-8-11-7. Tough to get a complete fix without knowing the scratches. For the matchups based on BRIS Prime, I've got 1-4-11-13-7-5. I like those Prime rankings. I'll pick 1-4-11 with a longshot on the 9 based on her ability to close. Valencia Island went at auction for 200K and in her 3rd start she's offered up for 40k... concerning. I don't see a lot in the 6, but Clement is good with firsters.

Mo Donegal ran his race. Nice ride from Irad. Nest ran well... nice horse. The uncoupled entry ran 1-2.

I look for Mo Donegal to be handy through the first six furlongs and close the deal. Less traffic should benefit him.

Creative Minister and SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING will provide enough pace for Rich Strike to give a run. He looked extremely fit in the Derby and had a bullet work last. I think he'll make a serious effort. The Belmont is usually not kind to closers, but a fit horse is a fit horse.

My program's odds line:

1: 2.7
2: 4.0
3: 6.4
4: 21.8
5: 17.1
6: 1.9
7: 100
8: 16.1

Very impressive. I think I am not as advanced as you on evaluating the level of races. i probably need to focus more in that regard.

Thanks, Jack. I will look this over later today, as I am sure many others will. I REALLY enjoy insights into how others handicap. I've been at this a long time, but I never feel being above considering the experience of others.

I can't speak for Tony, but as someone who has built ABC tickets, I suspect it would benefit Tony to have multiple calculators.

AB/ABC/ABC
A/ABC/C
C/AB/ABC

That sort of thing.

This site doesn't allow EXE files, so I renamed it to .CHG. Just download and change to .EXE.

I'd love to see what you've done. — Dave Schwartz

I'll send it to you, but it isn't mine. It was written by Horatio Kemeny. It references Swiftthoroughbreds.com, but I don't think that link is good. The copyright is from 1998-2006.

I have one called Exotic Wager Calculator. The executable is named EWC2.EXE. It is free. If you can't find it, I can email it to you. It does up to 20 horses for verticals up to 6 and horizontals up to 8, amounts .05, .10, .20, $1, $2, $3, $5, $10.

Before you jump all over me for that one... — Dave Schwartz

The only way I use variants is as one of many, many factors as to whether to use a line as my pace line. If the variant is too extreme, it may not be a representative line.

Take a look at it and see if there is anything that strikes you as meriting discussion. — Dave Schwartz

In the recesses of my mind is something about breezing and handily being different in different regions, east vs. west. This had to have been from at least 15 years ago and maybe much more. Have you ever heard anything like that? I don't know whether it was true back then or whether it would still be true today.

Since the tote moves so much, the theory of Dutching to work is just not likely to work as planned. — Dave Schwartz

What if the allocation was based on an odds line instead of the tote board?

And, how do you know when the odds don't support what you need to make?

If you are struggling to level up your results, look at who you hang out with. — Dave Schwartz

So right, Dave! I know I have learned far more from personal relationships than I have from any books.

I guess I wasn't very clear on dutching. My program works just fine on allocating the dutch amounts. So, I get that part.

One question I have... how much profit margin do you usually seek from your dutch? For instance, if you fund the dutch with $20, how much does that need to return for your long-term goals? I know that is a somewhat personally based question, but I would like an opinion. I am thinking that the anticipated profit would need to be at least 50%, but that is just a WAG (guess).

There is a point at which a properly distributed dutch will return a loss no matter what horse wins. For instance, if we fund $20 and dutch 4 horses at 3/1, even, 2/1, 4/1, the wagers will be 4, 8, 5 and 3. The returns would be $16, $16, $15, $15. Certainly an extremely poor wager.

From the Kentucky Derby video, I know Dave dutches quite a lot. I'd be interested to know how often the rest of you dutch.

By the way, if you want my dutching program, PM me your email address. I will send it to any of the regular participants of this group. You just enter the fund amount, number of horses and odds of each and it returns the dutch amount for each and the return for that odds/wager combination. Enter less than 2 horses to exit the program. It is DOS based, but that shouldn't particularly matter. No installation required. Just one executable file.

Thanks, Steven! Your parlay information is very helpful!