Aksarben, Nebraska spelled backwards. Made several trips there when I was working in Des Moines back in the 80's. Pre on-line wagering-- so I made the 2.5-3 hour trip on the weekends. I remember the great Who Doctor Who. I think it was the late Terry Wallace on the call. Packed crowds when the Doctor ran-- and Terry, he would get the crowd into a frenzy with his call-- "Here comes the Doctor". Some fans cheering on while standing on the hoods of their cars in the infield.
I also met a fella there who had been to I want to say 25 or 30 straight KY Derby's. He wore a huge hat he made I think out of wood that looked like the Churchill Downs grandstand with the twin spires. He was on the national Derby broadcast many years. Oh the good ol' days.

Hello Pony. Jimmy or Jim here from Chicagoland. Grew up in Louisville. Now semi retired. Part-time handicapper looking to become "consistently" profitable. Some very good years, good years, so-so, and down years. Looking to become a more consistent and profitable handicapper each and every year.
Thanks for putting the group together. I'm very much interested in working together with you and the other deT's out there.

2:30pm West coast would be 4:30pm for me Central. I'll be available.

Yes, I agree. Let's work on this during the onboarding. CritDev and fixing bugs is much more important right now.

Thank you. In the other thread, Jim Parker talked about HSH Objects (now will be Reports). Could you also please provide a sample HSH Object with say 1, 2, 3 factors. Nothing fancy. This will help me visualize what those are all about as well.

I'm trying to put something together around the "What you need is:". You said you came up with about 40 Handicapping Flips. It's sounds like we can then pick two that we like that will fit with our core method of handicapping without any overlap? Can you please provide an example of 1 or 2 Handicapping Flips so I'm on the right track (visualize).

What you need is:
1) A Core method of handicapping.
2) A Handicapping Flip that adds new and powerful information.
3) A second Handicapping Flip that adds new and powerful information.

Yes, this really helps. Your BALO Process write-up, the 1., 2., 3 puts into words what I was trying to get to.
Last, as it pertains to 3 below and the 4 Pace Objects. Why use Pace to test, and why not Speed Figures?
3. Finally, the 4 Pace Objects are also used to test the BALO Candidates.

2. Creating bad favorites.

a. Somewhere you've got your old copy of HSH and some data.
b. Using Filters and the PickList Manager, you can isolate on a subset of favs.
c. Then you can use the ObjectMaster (OBM) to build objects that point to losing favs among those isolated on.

See if I have this right. The deT is using AI to start-- determine the Best Horse(s). Then to determine if the Best Horse is a BALO or not we're using AI's four (4) Green Pace Objects. So at this stage in the process deT is using "pace" versus other factors? So is the deT different than what HSH was doing above?

Yes, I've been watching the conversations on PA.
1. The business model essentially says, "If you're making money flat, you aren't betting enough and should bet more." The target is to lose about 3.5% per wagered dollar.
So the Elite Turf Club and the other whales don't really make a profit on wagers, rather their income is generated through rebates? Someone commented "if they have a positive ROI, that's bonus money." So there is no positive ROI, rather they wager large sums of money, and pay the salaries and bills just from rebates?

Back to the Red SR and Running Style. Trying to wrap my head around how it relates to the 4 objects. Or does it? I see in some of the race examples with a Red SR that it's a Green 2 or a Green 4. Green 2 being its 2nd most in agreement with the Projected Odds. Green 4 being in least agreement with the Projected Odds. So, while Red SR is the most important running style, when checked against the Projected Odds, it could be in or not in agreement? IOW, the IA firsts determine the Red SR, but then when checks the Projected Odds it determines which Pace Objects agrees or least agrees with the Odds?

First, very good videos, easy to follow. Two questions.
1. Maybe I missed it. Along the paceline, between o AIBH and o Pace E there's a bold red pace figure like "SR". I wasn't sure what that was for?
2. Chaos races. I'm guessing that the AI ranks a Chaos "5" more chaotic than a "1"? In one of the races, you knew that it was a chaos race. Is that because there were two (2) contenders (2 Non-BALO's) or was there a field or something that indicated it was a chaos race? The Instruction or Strategy screen that you went to-- is that just for chaos races? It's a nice feature.

I also like the following ideas that Pony listed:
A deTermnator board are where users can (with screen shots/jpg's)
interact on problems and solutions to common questions/redboards.

Invite guest user/handicappers to do a complete card with explanations.

Types of Wager Strategy & Money Management. I would like to better understand what to do once we've handicapped a race. For example, a 6-horse or an 11-horse field with a BALO. Or the opposite, there's no BALO in the field. We have our contenders, so now what do we do-- Win, Place, Exacta, Tri or Double wagers? Do we always wager on our Win contender(s) followed by an Exacta? Do we box the Exacta? Does field size come into play?
Do we set-up separate bank-rolls for each type of wager? If yes, what percentage of our bank-roll should we wager within each. If we have a solid selection process, is it better to simply stick with Win bets? One unit to Win and 6 units to Place? When do we branch out (or should we) to Pick 4's and Pick 5's?
There are so many different types of wagers available once we have our contenders it sometimes feels overwhelming. Then deciding how much of our bank-roll should we wager based on the types of bets.
I need to and want to develop or more standardize approach if possible. Scenario A I make these wagers using this percentage of my bank-roll(s). If it's a Scenario B, I do this.

AI Best Horse: Odds Sensitive Handicapping. The AI BH odds go <2/1, <3/1, <9/2, 3/1+, 4/1+, 8/1+, 17/1+. Curious why the <9/2 and then 4/1+. I know the B=6 and we're looking at 5/1+, so it doesn't factor in, but just curious.

B=6 is 5/1+ and B=11 is 10/1+. So, are the odds always minus 1 of B? B=8 would be 7/1+.

Looking at the race example MVR05. #11 Scarlet is showing AI Odds 14.63. The 17/1+ column is circled red. Should that have been under the 8/1+ column. It's still a 1 & 1. Again, just following along and trying to understand the screens.

Maybe getting ahead of myself. The videos, I think, gave me a few ideas. I prefer to play horizontal wagers. Using the Daily Double as my example. Race 1 my contenders are #4 (rank 1) and #5/6 (rank 2). Race 2, #1 is a BALO. The contenders are #8 (rank 1) and #9 (rank 2). So, my Doubles would be something like #4 - #8 (4 units). #4 - #9 (2 units). #5/6 - #8 (1 unit). #5/6 - #9 (1/2 unit).
PK3/PK4/PK5's I'm not sure about knowing that BALO's do win sometimes, maiden races with first time starters and all the other factors that come into play over 3, 4 and 5 race sequences. Look forward to the rest of the videos and maybe will answer some of my questions.

Thanks for the update. I was thinking about this the other day. Look forward to seeing the videos.

Thanks for the information. I'll get back to you if I have any more questions.

Interesting. So hypothetically, let's say for this race I was able to watch the race. 1-2 minutes before the gates open the odds are #1 at 5/1, #3 at 11/1 and #10 at 7/1. Closer to what I had originally estimated.
#1 $27 becomes $33 33 / 122 x 60 = $16
#3 $12 becomes $48 48 / 122 x 60 = $23
#10 $19 becomes $41 41 / 122 x 60 = $20

The amount wagered is less on the 5/1, but more on the 11/1 and 7/1 than my original Dutching numbers (hence Reversed). Still a profit if any of them wins.

Would 2 horses work like this? 7/5 and 5/1 and wager $40. I saw this on-line.
#1 1/1.4 x 100 = 71 71/91 x 40 = $31
#2 1/5 x 100 = 20 20/91 x 40 = $9

I used a Dutching calculator that's on-line. There's several out there and they seem to work the same.
I was busy and couldn't be there for the race, so I estimated the final odds using the ML and my handicapping. ML #1: 4/1. #3: 6/1. #10 15/1. I estimated 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1. I thought these 3 horses would take money.
Wagered $60.00 total. $28, $21, $10 on the #1, #3 and #10. Turns out the #4 at ML 8/1 who I tossed took quite a bit of money and went off at 7/2. The #1 went off at 6/1, #3 at 14/1 and #10 at 5/1.
Not being there for the race cost me since I would have had more money on the #10. Or if my estimated projected final odds had been better would have helped.

Finished #10/3/6. The Even money favorite #8 was 4th. Wagered $60.00 and returned $63.00. +$3.00. I wasn't able to bet the race live. The 15-1 #10 ended up going off at 5-1. I knew 15-1 wasn't reasonable, thought more like 8-1. The 6-1 #3 ended up going off at 14-1. Did not expect that. Would have had a better profit if my projected final odds were better. On the positive side I did throw out the Even money favorite and 2 of my contenders finished 1-2. But it's not always this easy.