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  • Making an oddsline
    Can you offer us a scale for the range of numbers?
    From what to what?
  • Fair win odds theory
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay. — Dustin Korth

    Who you bet does not change who is or isn't an overlay.
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    I probably missed something up there, but that sums it up well! I hope this helps Dave — Conley

    It does help.
    Thank you.


    If I was going to recommend ideas for a handicapping show I would use Talking Horses to build my foundation. — Tony Kofalt

    Thank you for that!

    Or, the jockey had his head surgically removed from his butt on Monday! :) — Tom

    LOL - Do they still call them "Pinheads?"
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    ↪William Zayonce
    Thank you
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    He does ,however, sometimes offer interesting insights that players might have overlooked. — William Zayonce

    Can you give me an example of interesting insights?
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    ↪Tom
    ↪RanchWest


    Could you explain what you mean by "Inside Information?"

    So, what you guys are calling "inside information" - could that be SPECIAL information instead?

    When I think of inside info, I think of stuff like "I heard the trainer say that ______," or "The jockey on the favorite is sleeping with the 2nd choice's trainer."
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    I can only get the winner I get 7 picks. :)
    I saw nothing positive. ???     — Tom

    Exactly.
    Yet, it was amazingly obvious to Ken.
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    Just keep in mind that a big part of what is getting Dave to winners is his process. He recently helped me with my process and it was a game changer. He helped me to see that I was taking a random approach, hopping aimlessly from one area to another. Once I began following a process, my ability to pick winners improved significantly.[/quote]

    Thrilled to hear that this has worked out so well for you.     — RanchWest
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    "Dude, do you work out?"

    Seriously, kudos to you for the follow thru.
    Not everyone does.
  • Fair win odds theory
    In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change. — RanchWest

    Should be WILL CHANGE.
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    Awesome!
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    It means there is no charge for the upgrade.

    You still need to purchase downloads.
  • Pace pressure nuances
    Any trhought? — Tom

    Lots of them - but not quite ready to go public yet.

    I'm in the final stages of a very different way to look at pace.

    Multiple models - and a way to see which model to use in each race.

    Running style is huge - because it predicts how RELIABLE the pace scenario really is.

    A strong hint:
    You have a model that points to an early horse winning, yet there are no early horses in the race. Now what?
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    Lasix has me in shape. I had a race with Bolt scheduled, but he found out I cheated on the lane assignments and he backed out. Gutless. — RanchWest

    Well, I see that your terrible sense of humor is still in place. LOL
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    ↪RanchWest


    That's wonderful!

    When will you be ready to race again?

    Will you need a workout or two first or is it straight back to the track?
  • BRIS FYI
    I'll see what I can find from HDW.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Ah, that dumbass Biniak. He's the dullest tool in the shed. — Biniak

    Yes, we took a secret poll and that's what we all agreed. LOL
    (Couldn't find a roll eyes emoji in there.)
  • Concepts & POV - Part 3
    I'm going to try to explain using simple statements without a lot of explanation.
    _______________________
    When you handicap, your handicapping is based upon a strategy.

    The typical strategy of old was:
    • Pick Contenders
    • Make a line - which is really "make probabilities."
    • Bet the overlays.
    _______________________
    • This doesn't work any more because the odds change drastically after we've made our bets.
    • To make matters worse, this is what the whales do, so if we do this, we're doomed.
    _______________________
    I believe the answer is to see different scenarios.
    Bye "scenario" I mean a situation.
    The following are examples of scenarios.
    • One horse in the 1st Tier.
    • Two horses in the 1st tier.
    • Three plus horses in the 1st tier.
    "1st Tier for what?" you ask?
    • Odds
    • Early Speed
    • Contenders
    _______________________
    Let's turn those into questions.
    • "How many horses are likely to battle for the lead at the 1st call?"
    • "How many horses are likely to be well-bet?"
    • "How many horses are really contenders?"
    _______________________
    So, what I am saying is that those 3 questions, each with 3 possible answers produce 9 different scenarios. (i.e. branches)
    Each branch MAY demand a different approach to be successful.
    ___________________________________________________
    LESSON 6: SUCCESSFUL PLAYERS NEED TO HAVE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
    ___________________________________________________
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Ah, Biniak's "Why not use raw times?"
    Got it.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Of course. This is obvious.
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